Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS11 KWBC 290836
QPFHSD

PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
435 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VALID 12Z SUN MAR 29 2015 - 12Z WED APR 01 2015


DAYS 1-3...

...GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST SUN-TUE...

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING IS
EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH A SECOND SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.  THE RESULTING
AMPLIFIED TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST-GREAT LAKES LATE SUN-EARLY SUN BEFORE TRACKING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST MON-EARLY TUE.  STRONG LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION AND
MID-UPPER FORCING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...FOLLOWED BY SOME
LAKE-ENHANCED PRECIPITATION...WHICH MAY BE SUPPORTED BY STRONG
CYCLONIC FLOW BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTRIBUTE TO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWS ACROSS NORTHERN MI DURING
THE DAY 1 PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY PORTIONS OF UPSTATE
NY...PARTICULARLY THE TUG HILL PLATEAU REGION-ADIRONDACKS DURING
THE DAY 2 PERIOD.  WPC AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM REFLECT
A BLEND OF THE GFS..ECMWF AND NAM BOTH DAYS.   A CLIPPER-LIKE
SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL STRIPE OF LIGHT SNOWS AS IT DROPS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES EARLY TUE...REACHING THE UPPER MID ATLANTIC
LATE IN THE DAY.  DISCOUNTED THE NAM...WHICH WAS MORE
AMPLIFIED...INDICATING A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
THAN THE REMAINING 00Z MODEL CONSENSUS.

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW IS FORECAST TO RETURN TO THE NORTHERN
CASCADES ON TUE AS THE LONGSTANDING RIDGE IN THE WEST GIVES WAY TO
A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST INTO THE REGION.  BY
WED MORNING...SEVERAL INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER PEAKS.

THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT ICING IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.

PEREIRA

$$




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