Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 231901
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT WED AUG 23 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 24/0000 UTC THRU AUG 25/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

DAY SHIFT UPDATE...

CONUS QPF WAS BASED ON A BLEND THAT WAS WEIGHTED TOWARD CONTINUITY
WHILE INCORPORATING PRIMARILY THE 09Z SREF AND 12Z GFS TO CAPTURE
SOME OF THE SMALLER SCALE TRENDS. PRECIPITATION FROM HARVEY
REMAINS OFFSHORE...ALTHOUGH SOME MAY REACH THE UPPER TX COAST AND
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA LATE THURSDAY. THE FRONT WRAPPED AROUND DRY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM
THE CAROLINAS TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. SYNOPTIC FORCING IS GREATEST NEAR THE ATLANTIC
COAST...BUT THERE IS A LIMIT TO HOW MUCH INSTABILITY CAN REMAIN IN
THE NARROW WEDGE BETWEEN THE FRONT AND SHORE...SO AFTER A
SHORT-LIVED EXCESSIVE RAIN THREAT THIS EVENING THE REST OF THE
PERIOD FEATURES LESS THAN ONE INCH AREAL AVERAGE QPF. POCKEST OF
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS IN THE SOUTHERN STATES / PLAINS WILL BE MORE
DEPENDENT ON DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES AND MESOSCALE
INFLUENCES BENEATH WEAKLY DIFLUENT UPPER FLOW. MEANWHILE...A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING THROUGH THE ROCKIES WILL INCREASE WESTERLY
SHEAR ENOUGH TO YIELD SOME ORGANIZED CELL STRUCTURES...AND FAIRLY
BROAD QPF OF A QUARTER INCH OR MORE IN PARTS OF NEW MEXICO
ESPECIALLY. STILL...THE LARGE SCALE QPF SIGNAL IS NOT OVERLY HEAVY
WITH PW VALUES ONLY SLIGHTLY ANOMALOUS.

...SOUTH FLORIDA...

A SLOW MOVING TROUGH AND CORRESPONDING POOL OF DEEP MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION.  PWS OF 2-2.25 INCHES (2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL) WILL SUPPORT THE THREAT FOR HEAVY AMOUNTS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE KEYS AND SOUTHERN PENINSULA.

BURKE/PEREIRA

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV


24HR QP VT 25/00Z
 0.01 231987 236993 237996 242998 259003 267007 274016 279022
      288027 294025 300020 304019 309020 312022 316026 317029
      315033 313036 311039 305040 299039 296037 291036 288037
      284040 282044 281047 280053 263056 262064 263070 268078
      278092 283097 288104 293110 300114 303118 308121 312124
      316124 319123 322120 325120 326124 326129 328133 332134
      336134 340133 345134 350136 356143 359146 359154 359159
      364159 368153 366147 366142 360107 357109 355113 352116
      351118 349116 349112 350109 354100 360096 364095 369097
      377097 385098 380110 381115 381121 381124 383122 389115
      389105 387094 390091 392093 392098 395097 396094 391092
      393089 397085 400083 403080 407082 411085 414085 414083
      413080 411077 413075 416072 417069 417064 416057 416053
      419050 427044 433045 437045 439048 444048 447046 451046
      453041 453037 452032 447024 437013 431002 428990 428983
      429978 431972 433966 433964 430960 428956 425954 421954
      418956 416967 412977 410982 407986 403990 399993 390997
      381001 370001 367001 365003 360003 351006 347997 346987
      339971 339959 336952 335942 334934 332929 328917 328903
      329898 329891 329878 327869 328858 333840 337830 340819
      352806 363796 367793 371791 375788 377784 380771 382760
      385750 387747 388741 389737 389731 390721 393713 397705
      400700 402697 405697 408693 408690 407686 405682 400683
      396684 393687 387692 380696 373701 366708 358715 354719
      349722 333731 326734 320741 316750 313758 310767 306776
      302780 299782 295781 292778 286773 280771 273768 262767
      255768 251767 244768 239770 236772 233775 229778 229783
      233805 240823 243828 244833 246837 249839 255843 263846
      267847 271845 276844 279842
 0.01 279842 281840 284840 288842 292845 295847 296851 297863
      298870 297876 298882 297889 294893 289896 282887 275880
      270877 263876 257876 252877 239877 232878 226879 225880
 0.01 544190 541187 539179 535174 529173 526173 521173 518171
      517168 515161 512157 508159 505160 504157 501149 497143
      489136 485130 483128 480126 478124 475123 473116 476109
      479101 477095 474091 467090 461091 454088 449085 444081
      437081 435083 431084 429077 427080 426089 421093 422098
      421103 422107 422113 420115 411122 409126 410129 414131
      425136 425141 428142 429144 428146 426148 425151 428151
      433148 434155 439161 432166 432171 433175 436177 437180
      432183 427184 425188 426196 425205 429209 437212 443212
      449207 452202 456198 459193 465182 471179 474179 477177
      482175 486174 489176 487182 487185 492184 494187 497188
      504190 508191 511194 514199 517206 518209 520212 523217
      530222 533222 536220
 0.01 513253 511245 507240 505234 504226 499214 496210 490207
      483206 478207 470214 467220 467223 470224 476223 482225
      491233 498243 500245 500251 503256 509256 513253
 0.01 486952 486939 482929 477924 474922 472924 465920 460915
      457913 454909 448906 444906 440908 438916 436921 435927
      434931 435935 439944 443951 448958 453964 458970 461973
      465973 470972 473974 479972 484964 486952 486952
 0.01 464161 463159 461159 460159 458159 457160 456162 457164
      459164 460163 461163 463163 464161
 0.01 453723 451718 446717 443720 440725 431745 428748 426754
      425759 423765 422780 422794 417804 415809 416814 419811
      422806 425802 427801 429803 432808 435811 434808 431802
      430797 431790 434780 437767 439762 441757 449736 453723
 0.01 441825 441822 441820 439820 437820 437823 437825 438825
      439825 441825 441825
 0.01 433940 433937 431933 430930 428930 426928 423928 421931
      421933 422935 423938 424940 426942 430945 431942 433940
 0.01 413094 414090 412089 410089 408091 406093 404095 402097
      402102 402106 404107 405109 407108 409108 411106 412101
      412096 413094
 0.01 401788 401783 401781 399779 395779 394782 393784 392787
      393792 394794 397796 397795 399793 400790 401788
 0.01 393146 393144 391142 391141 389141 388141 387143 387144
      389146 391147 392147 393146
 0.01 290968 290966 288965 287966 287968 288970 290968
 0.01 288974 286970 285973 281973 279974 272976 270981 268988
      268993 270995 273001 277001 280999 284995 285993 285989
      286981 286976 288974
 0.25 376719 376715 374714 370714 367716 358723 350729 342737
      335745 327752 324756 322762 322766 323769 324774 323778
      320789 316800 315806 319810 323812 328811 347800 361783
      370763 372757 373750 372742 373736 376719
 0.25 370043 370036 367030 362029 357031 348037 344038 340041
      323055 321059 318064 313066 310065 305062 301061 299063
      296067 297069 300071 304072 299074 295071 292073 292080
      295084 305089 310090 315088 318087 321088 328089 332090
      335090 337088 341076 347066 350062 357063 369045 370043
 0.25 335982 334975 331969 327964 321960 319945 319936 318926
      316919 315913 317895 316887 315879 313872 310865 306876
      305883 304893 304901 306912 308919 306928 306935 305941
      307945 314955 316961 314967 307979 304985 303994 303999
      304002 307008 311011 316012 318011 327003 331998 333993
      335982
 0.25 293803 283794 275782 269777 264776 256775 248776 242781
      239787 238794 239803 241811 244817 256825 262828 269829
      276826 280821 281813 283810 287808 291806 293803
 0.25 231975 233978 238979 243979 247978 259970 272961 283951
      290947 295941 297934 294925 289919 282914 278909 274902
      266888 263886 259885 249886 238887 230889 227891
 0.50 368730 368723 363724 357728 350734 345741 342744 342751
      341759 346765 346771 343766 338769 334776 331780 329785
      329790 331794 335795 338798 342797 345794 351788 358781
      361774 364764 365760 364755 361754 361751 363747 366739
      368730
 0.50 330982 330977 327973 325971 321971 318975 316979 315984
      314990 315994 318996 320995 324993 327990 329986 330982
 0.50 320003 319001 319999 318999 317997 315998 313000 312003
      313004 314005 315005 317005 318004 320003
 0.50 231967 236971 243972 254967 265960 273952 277947 281941
      284937 284934 283929 277918 270906 264894 259891 252889
      238892 231894 227898
 0.50 276801 275795 273791 269783 266781 261780 252781 246786
      243790 242795 243805 245809 247811 255814 264816 268816
      269812 273805 276801
 1.00 231955 235959 240962 246962 252960 261954 268947 272942
      274936 274931 273925 268915 262904 258899 254897 249895
      242895 236897 233900 227906
 1.00 266798 267794 265790 263789 261788 260789 257791 255793
      254796 252798 250799 249802 252802 256802 259802 263801
      265800 266798
 1.50 230942 232946 235951 239954 246955 253954 258952 263948
      266945 270939 271935 270927 268922 262913 255904 251901
      246897 242898 236902 229909 229910
 2.00 230934 234942 237946 241949 245951 250952 259947 265941
      267937 268931 266924 264921 257913 251905 248903 242902
      234908 231911 229916
 3.00 261939 263933 261928 257921 251913 246909 242910 239912
      233918 233924 234928 239934 243936 245939 248943 254943
      257943 260941 261939
 4.00 250923 250921 249919 248919 246918 245917 244917 243917
      242918 241919 241921 240922 240924 241924 242925 243926
      244927 246927 248926 249925 250924 250923

$$





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