Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS11 KWNS 251642
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251641
PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-VAZ000-OHZ000-251745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1394
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1141 AM CDT MON JUL 25 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN PA...MD PANHANDLE...ERN PANHANDLE OF WV

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 251641Z - 251745Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...INCREASING TSTM COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS WITH SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LIKELY. DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SVR THREAT AND WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TO
COVER THIS SVR POTENTIAL.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS AN INCREASINGLY AGITATED CU
FIELD ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL/SRN PA. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION
HAVE ALREADY INCREASED INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S AMIDST
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. THESE WARM AND MOIST CONDITIONS ARE
ERODING CONVECTIVE-INHIBITION AND SUPPORTING MLCAPE OVER 2000 J PER
KG /BASED ON RECENT MESOANALYSIS/...DESPITE WARM MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. CONFLUENT
SURFACE WINDS COUPLED WITH INCREASED LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION. ONCE THIS INITIATION
OCCURS...INCREASING MID-LEVEL FLOW /AND RESULTING INCREASING
VERTICAL SHEAR/ WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZED TSTMS AND AN
ATTENDANT SVR RISK. PRIMARY SVR THREAT IS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. A WW
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TO ADDRESS THE ANTICIPATED SVR THREAT.

..MOSIER/WEISS.. 07/25/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...CTP...LWX...PBZ...

LAT...LON   40388068 41058024 41387852 41097638 40387560 39697600
            39177834 39568036 40388068



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