Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 030507
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030506
KSZ000-030630-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1668
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1206 AM CDT WED SEP 03 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL KANSAS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 030506Z - 030630Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE EVOLUTION OF A SUBSTANTIVE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT STILL SEEMS LOW.  HOWEVER...AT LEAST SOME INCREASE IN SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 06-09Z...AND TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN INCREASING SEVERE
RISK THAT COULD REQUIRE A WATCH.

DISCUSSION...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH LOWER/MID
TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION HAS SUPPORTED A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...EAST OF GREAT
BEND THROUGH AREAS NORTH OF WICHITA.  INTENSIFICATION APPEARS TO
HAVE BEEN SLOWED BY INHIBITION ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTWARD
ADVECTION OF INCREASINGLY WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR ACROSS THE
PLAINS.  BUT MORE SUBSTANTIVE RECENT INTENSIFICATION NEAR HUTCHISON
MAY BE IN RESPONSE TO THE STRENGTHENING AND NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF
A SOUTHERLY 850 MB SPEED MAXIMUM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN INTO CENTRAL
PLAINS.  AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE IMPULSE CONTINUES MIGRATING EAST OF
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AROUND THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...SOME FURTHER INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT AND ORGANIZATION DOES NOT SEEM OUT OF THE QUESTION
OVERNIGHT.  LATEST WDSS-II MESH HAS SUGGESTED THE PRESENCE OF SEVERE
HAIL IN STRONGEST STORMS.  FURTHER UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH COULD
EVENTUALLY YIELD THE RISK FOR ONE OR TWO DOWNBURSTS WITH LOCALLY
STRONG SURFACE GUSTS.

..KERR/EDWARDS.. 09/03/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...

LAT...LON   38879899 39429823 38659595 38149562 37699650 37939780
            38249840 38879899




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