Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
ACUS11 KWNS 040405
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040405
OKZ000-TXZ000-040600-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1602
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1105 PM CDT MON AUG 03 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 468...

VALID 040405Z - 040600Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 468
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...AN EVOLVING CLUSTER OF STORMS MAY REMAIN FAIRLY VIGOROUS
INTO THE 06-09Z TIME FRAME...WITH A CONTINUING RISK FOR STRONG
SURFACE GUSTS...IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.  THE NEED FOR A
NEW WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE MONITORED.

DISCUSSION...LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION...ACCOMPANYING A
WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSE MIGRATING ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS...LIKELY WILL MAINTAIN THE SUBSTANTIVE CLUSTER OF STORMS
WHICH HAS EVOLVED ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TO THE NORTH OF
AMARILLO.  CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW HAS SURGED SOUTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF THE
BULK OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION...AND THERE HAS BEEN SOME RECENT
WEAKENING TREND TO CONVECTION EVIDENT IN RADAR AND LIGHTNING
DATA...IN THE PRESENCE OF INCREASINGLY MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER
INSTABILITY.  HOWEVER...A MESOSCALE CIRCULATION IS BECOMING BETTER
DEFINED ALONG THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW ...AND
COULD BECOME THE FOCUS FOR INCREASING STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE
05-07Z TIME FRAME...AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TEXAS
PANHANDLE INTO AREAS SOUTH OF GAGE OK.

ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP...SEASONABLY HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT /CHARACTERIZED BY PRECIPITABLE WATER UP TO 1.9
INCHES/ MAY CONTRIBUTE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION LOADING THAT COULD
CONTRIBUTE TO ANOTHER DOWNBURST OR TWO...ON THE NOSE OF A 20-30 KT
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS MAY
BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG SURFACE GUSTS...BUT PEAK GUSTS APPROACHING
OR EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS PROBABLY WILL BE RATHER LOCALIZED IN
NATURE.

..KERR.. 08/04/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...AMA...

LAT...LON   35480071 35900068 36460032 35999864 35059838 34809967
            35190081 35480071



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.