Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 020406
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020406
MOZ000-KSZ000-020500-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1276
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1106 PM CDT WED JUL 01 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...WCNTRL THROUGH SWRN MO

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 383...

VALID 020406Z - 020500Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 383 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND...LARGE HAIL AND A COUPLE OF
TORNADOES WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 05Z FROM SERN KS THROUGH
SWRN MO. SOME SEVERE THREAT MAY PERSIST BEYOND 05Z...AND IF
NECESSARY THE WW COULD BE LOCALLY EXTENDED FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS
OVER SWRN MO. ANOTHER POSSIBILITY IS THE TORNADO WATCH COULD BE
REPLACED BY A SMALL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH BY 0445Z THAT WOULD
INCLUDE SWRN MO.

DISCUSSION...TENDENCY HAS BEEN FOR STORMS TO EVOLVE INTO A BROKEN
LINE BUT WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELL AND BOWING STRUCTURES. ACTIVITY IS
MOVING SWD AT AROUND 20 KT AND REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH MODERATE /2000 J/KG/ MLCAPE AND 35-45 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR
SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS AND THE
00Z RAOB FROM LITTLE ROCK INDICATED WEAKER CAPE AND STRONGER
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WITH SWD EXTENT INTO ARKANSAS. THIS SUGGESTS
PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL PROBABLY REMAIN CONFINED TO SWRN AND
SCNTRL MO. THE SPRINGFIELD VWP SHOWS LARGE  0-1 KM HODOGRAPHS...AND
THREAT FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL PERSIST FOR NEXT COUPLE HOURS.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER AND TENDENCY FOR
STORMS TO GROW UPSCALE...PRIMARY THREAT APPEARS TO BE TRANSITIONING
TO DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL.

..DIAL.. 07/02/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...ICT...

LAT...LON   38079479 37869370 37779230 37779144 37279151 36949300
            36979440 37389487 37859508 38079479



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