Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS11 KWNS 302248
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302248
MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-310015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0849
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0548 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL THROUGH NERN NY AND NRN NEW ENGLAND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 302248Z - 310015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED INSTANCES OF MOSTLY STRONG
WIND GUSTS EARLY THIS EVENING. AT THIS TIME...OVERALL THREAT DOES
NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR A WW.

DISCUSSION...NUMEROUS STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN WARM SECTOR FROM
CNTRL THROUGH NERN NY WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY FARTHER NORTH
ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND. STORMS OVER NEW YORK REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WITH WEAK SHEAR AND ARE WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY MODEST /1000-1500 J/KG/ MLCAPE SUPPORTIVE OF
MULTICELLS. STORMS IN GENERAL SHOULD REMAIN POORLY ORGANIZED AS THEY
DEVELOP EWD...BUT OCCASIONAL LINE SEGMENTS MAY OCCUR. FARTHER NE
ACROSS WRN AND NRN MAINE...WIND PROFILES ARE MUCH STRONGER WITH
40-50 KT FLOW IN THE 2-6 KM LAYER AND 30-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR.
PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR IN THIS REGION IS WEAK BUOYANCY WITH MLCAPE
BELOW 1000 J/KG AND POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE MARGINAL
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT HAS HAS BEEN REFLECTED IN THE CHARACTER OF
CONVECTION MOVING INTO WRN MAINE. NEVERTHELESS...A FEW STORMS MAY
PRODUCE INSTANCES OF STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BEFORE THE SFC
LAYER BEGINS TO STABILIZE.

..DIAL/THOMPSON.. 05/30/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

LAT...LON   47086952 47266842 47036779 46396814 45436931 44127156
            42127688 44637540 44947368 45047154 45687046 47086952



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