Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA
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168 FXUS66 KLOX 091009 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 309 AM PDT Thu May 9 2024 .SYNOPSIS...08/130 PM. A quiet weather pattern is expected through early next week with near normal temperatures and no rain. Increasing night and morning low clouds are expected across coast and valleys as onshore flow increases. Mostly minor day to day changes in temperatures are expected through Sunday, with some cooling possible Monday and Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)...09/251 AM. Kind of an unusual upper level pattern for May as an upper low pinches over from its parent trof over Nebraska and then retrogrades to the SW ending up over Las Vegas Friday afternoon before slowly pushing eastward on Saturday. Interesting as this may be the effects on Srn Ca weather will be rather minimal. The weak offshore flow did not materialize this morning and this has allowed the eddy to spin low clouds all the way from Long Beach to SBA. Low clouds are also spinning into the LA Vlys and may make it into VTA vly from the east. Clearing will be slower today with many areas not seeing the sun until late morning. The lack of offshore flow will likely result in reduced warming than was previously fcst. Rising hgts will bring warming to the interior. Most highs today will end up in the upper 60s to the mid 70s. The eddy will continue to spin tonight and its likely that the low clouds will arrive sooner. Rising hgts will smoosh the marine layer and there will be more fog. Stronger onshore flow and a stronger inversion will add a few more hours to the clearing time with some beaches remaining cloudy into the afternoon. Look for 2 to 4 degrees of cooling across the coasts and vlys, but sunny skies will bring an additional 3 to 5 degrees of warming to the interior. While the csts/vlys will be 2 to 4 degrees blo normal the mtns and interior will be 2 to 4 degrees above normal. The eddy is much weaker Fri night and Sat morning. The onshore flow will be a little weaker as well. The low clouds will affect most of the coasts south of Pt Conception but the vlys will remain clear. The low clouds will burn off quicker as well. At the upper levels the retrograding low will finally begin to push to the east and hgts will rise. Max temps will respond and warm 2 to 4 degrees across the entire area. .LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...09/1216 AM. Weak ridging will persist on Sunday. Followed by a weak and dry cut off low moving in over the area Mon through Wed. Onshore flow increases through the period and by mid weak may be near +9 to the east and +6 to the N. Look for the marine layer to increase each day with later and later burn offs as the onshore flow increases. Gusty afternoon winds from the west will also develop esp on Tue and Wed with the strongest gusts across the LA mtns and the Antelope Vly. Look for warmer temps on Sunday with 70s across the coasts and 80s in the vlys. Most areas will cool all three days Mon to Wed with the csts/vlys cooling the most due to the increased marine layer and onshore flow. The AV may be the exception as the west winds will create some downslope warming. From a climate point of view the csts/vlys will fall to several degrees blo normal while the inland areas will remain noticeably above normal. && .AVIATION...09/0613Z. At 0530Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1600 feet deep. The top of the inversion was near 2600 feet with a temperature of 16 C. High confidence in TAFs for KPRB, KSBP, KSMX, KPMD and KWJF Moderate confidence in remainder of TAFs. Low clouds could arrive +/- 2 hours from fcst time and may last 1 hour longer than fcst. KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. Low clouds could arrive any time between 07Z-10Z. Cigs may last til 19Z. There is a 30 percent chc of IFR cigs arriving at 10/04Z. There is a 25 percent chc of an 8 kt east wind component 11Z-16Z. KBUR...Good confidence in TAF through 08Z. Low clouds could arrive any time between 08Z-10Z. Cigs may last til 17Z. && .MARINE...09/136 AM. For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through Saturday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels. For Saturday night through Sunday, there is a 50-70% chance of SCA level winds. For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through Saturday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. For Sunday, there is a 50-60% chance of SCA level winds in the afternoon and evening hours. On Monday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. For most areas, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels today through Monday. The only exception is the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel where there is a 50% chance of SCA level winds Saturday afternoon and night. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...High Surf Advisory in effect until 9 AM PDT this morning for zones 340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX). PZ...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...Rorke AVIATION...Rorke MARINE...RAT SYNOPSIS...MW weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox