Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK
674 FXAK69 PAFG 052138 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 138 PM AKDT Sun May 5 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A series of upper level disturbances moving across the mainland over the next several days will support rain and snow showers south of the Brooks Range and snow north of the Brooks Range. Strong northeast winds persist through Monday from Cape Lisburne through the Bering Strait to St Lawrence Island. A Flood Watch remains in effect for the Yukon River at Circle. && .DISCUSSION... Upper level Analysis...Broad troughing over the west coast that will become a closed upper low over the Seward Penn Monday Morning then retrograde southwest over the Bering on Tuesday. Another low in the Gulf of ALaska will be a player for showers over the Interior as shortwaves spin up from the southeast Monday and Tuesday. The low over the Bering will drift south on Wednesday and southerly flow will re-establish over the Interior late Wed and Thursday. Gusty gap winds are possible on Thursday. North Slope and Brooks Range... A series of upper level disturbances will support periods of snow across the North Slope and Brooks Range through mid week. Snow amounts will be light. Over the northwest Arctic Coast northeast winds of 30 to 40 mph will persist through Monday from Point Lay west, with lighter winds anticipated Tuesday. Elsewhere along the coast northeast winds of 15 to 25 mph are expected through Monday, diminishing Monday night. West Coast and Western Interior... A strong pressure gradient persists from Point Hope through the Bering Strait to St Lawrence Island today, supporting northwest winds of 30 to 40 mph with gusts to 45 mph. Further south, northwest winds of 20 to 30 mph expected along the coast. Winds will remain strong through Monday then diminish some Monday night. Isolated to scattered showers are possible under the trough through Tuesday. Central and Eastern Interior... North to northeast winds increase into the 10 to 20 mph range this afternoon and evening, with the strongest winds occurring in the White Mountains and Interior summits. An upper level disturbance pushing northwest out of the Yukon this evening and Monday will bring another round of showers across the Interior, with a rain/snow mix possible during the early morning hours Monday then becoming all rain by late morning. Little to no accumulations expected. Another shortwave will lift northwest out of the Yukon on Tuesday and bring showers to the Eastern Interior. Temperatures on the cool side Monday with highs in the mid to upper 40s and low 50s on Tuesday then warming near 60 above on Wednesday. Extended Forecast Days 4-7...Upper level troughing over the Bering Sea remains the dominant player through the end of the work week, while ridging builds north into British Columbia. This set up supports scattered showers across northern Alaska. Temperatures slowly trend upwards for the latter half of the week. Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None. && .FIRE WEATHER...A series of upper level disturbances will lift northwest across the Interior through Tuesday supporting scattered to numurous showers each day. Temperatures trend downwards today and Monday before warming up again on Wednesday. Minimum relative humidity values largely remain above 25 percent through Tuesday. North to northeast winds increase into the 10 to 20 mph range this afternoon from the Yukon Flats south to the White Mountains, Fortymile Country and Middle Tanana Valley, with the strongest winds occurring in the White Mountains and Interior summits. Weak southerly gap flow develops in the Alaska Range passes Monday afternoon continuing into Wednesday. && .HYDROLOGY...As of mid-day Sunday, not much change has been reported and the Yukon River breakup front is roughly 30 miles upstream of Circle, near Coal Creek. There is a 20 mile run of dense ice above the breakup front. Residents of Circle should be aware that the breakup front is approaching. No overbank flooding has been reported yet. However as the breakup front moves downstream, it is likely that small jams may form and release, leading to fluctuating water levels and potential minor or moderate flooding. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AK...Flood Watch for AKZ833. PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ801-802. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ802. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ803. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ804. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ804-805. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ805-852. Gale Warning for PKZ806. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ806-810-811-816-850-851. Gale Warning for PKZ807. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ809-855. Gale Warning for PKZ810. Gale Warning for PKZ811. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ812-858. Gale Warning for PKZ816. Gale Warning for PKZ817. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ850. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ852. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ853. Gale Warning for PKZ854. Gale Warning for PKZ856. Gale Warning for PKZ857. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ860. && $$