Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
255
FNUS71 KAKQ 300940
FWSAKQ
Spot Forecast for Escarpment Admin RX...USFWS
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
540 AM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024
Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 EDT on April 30.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service at 757-899-5734.
.DISCUSSION...
Dry with increasing high cloud cover today. Min RH values drop to
around 40% by this afternoon. A southwest wind will increase
shortly after sunrise, averaging around 10 mph by late
morning/afternoon with occasional gusts of 20 to 25 mph. Winds
decrease again by sunset into tonight.
.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent) then becoming
mostly cloudy (70-80 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 85.
Min humidity........41 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 8 to 10 mph.
Mixing height.......5200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 15 to 17 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (16800 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to excellent (76700 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................25 early in the morning increasing to 72 in the
afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (EDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........21 20 19 18 28 37 47 56 66 75
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Temp............66 70 74 77 80 82 83 84 84 83
RH..............78 68 62 56 51 46 44 43 41 43
20 FT wind dir..SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
20 FT wind spd..8 9 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 10
20 FT wind gust.14 15 16 16 16 19 19 19 19 16
Mix hgt (kft)...1.3 1.8 2.3 2.8 3.5 4.1 4.8 4.9 5.1 5.2
Transp wind dir.SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
Transp wind spd.15 16 16 16 16 16 16 17 17 17
LVORI...........3 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
ADI.............25 37 44 50 57 62 67 70 72 71
Haines index....4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..17 25 33 40 49 59 69 73 77 77
Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR FR FR GD GD GD GD
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 63.
Max humidity........97 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 6 to 9 mph.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 8 to 15 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (45800 knot-ft) early in the evening
decreasing to poor (3300 knot-ft) late in the
night.
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................52 early in the evening decreasing to 5 late in
the night.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
large plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........77 79 82 80 78 76 74 72 71 67 64 61
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
Temp............82 79 75 73 71 70 69 68 67 67 66 64
RH..............44 50 58 62 68 71 73 78 81 81 84 90
20 FT wind dir..SW SW S S S S S SW SW SW SW SW
20 FT wind spd..9 8 7 7 7 8 7 7 7 7 6 6
20 FT wind gust.15 14 12 12 12 14 12 12 12 12 11 11
Mix hgt (kft)...3.6 2.1 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
Transp wind dir.SW S S S S S S S S SW SW SW
Transp wind spd.15 12 9 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 8
LVORI...........1 2 2 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 6
ADI.............52 15 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 5 5
Haines index....5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..46 21 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3
Ventrate Cat....FR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Chance of
showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in
the morning, then showers likely and chance of
thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 81.
Min humidity........60 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 5 to 6 mph shifting to the northwest
around 5 mph late in the afternoon, then
shifting to the east late in the afternoon.
Gusty and erratic winds expected near
thunderstorms late in the morning. Gusty and
erratic winds expected near thunderstorms late
in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......4600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 9 to 12 mph shifting to the north 3
to 5 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (6100 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to fair (29300 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................6 to 41.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
Sky (%).........64 70 69 71 77 77
Weather cov..... CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY
Weather type....NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........ S CHC CHANCE CHANCE
Chc of pcpn (%).10 30 30 30 60 60
Temp............64 65 72 77 78 78
RH..............93 93 73 62 60 62
20 ft wind......SW 6 SW 6 W 6 W 6 W 5 NE 5
20 ft wind gust.11 11 11 11 8 8
Mix hgt (ft)....800 1300 3000 4100 4600 3700
Transport wind..SW 9 W 12 W 10 NW 7 N 3 N 5
LVORI...........6 5 3 1 2 2
ADI.............6 20 38 34 16 15
Haines index....3 3 3 3 3 3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..6 13 27 25 16 13
Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR
$$
Forecaster...BUTNER
Requested by...Frank Simmons
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2412755.0/AKQ
.DELDT 04/30/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Frank_simmons@fws.gov