Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FNUS71 KALY 241242
FWSALY

Spot Forecast for GMFL Grout Pond A Rx...USFS
National Weather Service Albany NY
842 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 EDT on April 24.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at alb.stormreport@noaa.gov, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
A low pressure system will bring some showers to the region
into this afternoon, then colder air returns for tonight behind
a strong cold front. High pressure will bring a return to dry
weather to end the week. Following a cool day on Thursday,
seasonable temperatures return Friday into Saturday with a
warmup Sunday into Monday.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Rain showers
                    likely and slight chance of thunderstorms.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms until 1100, then 1-8 strikes until
                    1500, then No Tstms.
Max temperature.....Around 47.
Min humidity........66 percent.
Dewpoint............39 decreasing to 33 late in the afternoon.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......West winds 9 to 12 mph shifting to the
                    northwest 14 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Gusty
                    and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms
                    late in the morning.
Mixing height.......3100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 14 to 21 mph shifting to the northwest 22
                    to 25 mph in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (16500 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (68600 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............4.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.18 inches.

TIME (EDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........91  92  93  92  90  88  81  73  65
Weather cov.....CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY CHC CHC SCH
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........        SCH SCH SCH SCH
Chc of pcpn (%).50  50  60  60  60  60  40  30  20
LAL.............1   2   2   2   2   2   2   1   1
Temp............43  45  45  46  46  45  41  40  38
Dewpoint........37  39  39  41  41  41  38  37  33
RH..............79  79  79  83  83  86  89  89  82
20 FT wind dir..SW  W   W   W   W   NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..9   10  10  12  14  15  15  15  15
20 FT wind gust.17  17  18  20  21  21  22  22  23
Mix hgt (kft)...1.4 1.8 2.3 2.7 3.0 3.1 2.8 2.4 1.9
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   W   NW  NW  NW  NW
Transp wind spd.14  16  18  21  24  25  25  23  22
LVORI...........3   3   3   4   4   4   4   4   3
Haines index....3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..17  26  37  51  63  69  62  49  36
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  FR  GD  GD  GD  FR  PR

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent) then becoming
                    clear (0-5 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Min temperature.....Around 19.
Max humidity........89 percent.
Dewpoint............28 decreasing to 8.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Northwest winds 8 to 15 mph.
Mixing height.......1200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 14 to 21 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (36300 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to fair (14700 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
LVORI...............3.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.04 inches.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........50  35  20  16  13  9   6   3   1   1   1   1
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).10  10  10  10  0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............35  33  31  29  28  26  24  22  21  21  20  21
Dewpoint........30  27  22  19  15  12  11  9   9   8   8   8
RH..............82  78  69  66  58  55  57  57  59  56  59  56
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..15  15  15  14  14  13  12  12  10  8   8   8
20 FT wind gust.24  24  24  23  22  20  18  18  17  16  16  15
Mix hgt (kft)...1.6 1.4 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2
Transp wind dir.NW  NW  NW  NW  N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
Transp wind spd.21  21  21  21  21  21  20  17  16  15  14  14
LVORI...........3   3   3   3   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
Haines index....3   3   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..30  26  25  29  34  36  33  27  21  18  16  15
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max temperature.....Around 46.
Min humidity........23 percent.
Dewpoint............9.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Northwest winds 8 to 9 mph.
Mixing height.......5300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 10 to 14 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (14200 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (47300 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............2.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.00 inches.

TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........1   1   2   3   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............21  22  24  27  33  36  38  41  43  45  46  46
Dewpoint........8   7   7   7   8   8   9   9   10  10  11  11
RH..............56  52  47  42  34  30  29  26  25  23  24  24
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..8   8   8   8   9   9   9   9   9   9   8   8
20 FT wind gust.15  14  13  13  14  14  13  13  14  14  13  12
Mix hgt (kft)...1.2 1.3 1.5 1.9 2.4 3.0 3.5 4.1 4.5 5.0 5.3 5.0
Transp wind dir.N   N   N   N   N   N   N   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
Transp wind spd.14  14  14  14  13  13  12  12  10  10  10  10
LVORI...........2   2   2   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..14  15  18  22  27  33  36  39  41  45  47  45
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  FR  FR  FR  FR

$$
Forecaster...Picard
Requested by...Ryan Hughes
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2411788.2/ALY
.DELDT 04/24/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL keith.sargent@usda.gov,eric.hughes@usda.gov
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