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000
FXUS64 KAMA 151933
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
233 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 216 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Morning observations show the stout upper level low progressing as
anticipated, situated near the Utah-Colorado border as of 17z
analysis. At the sfc, a 998mb low is deepening over NE Colorado and
drawing moisture into the eastern combined Panhandles, where dew
pts are currently in the mid 50s to low 60s. This is where the
dry line is expected to set up this afternoon and evening, roughly
along/east a Perryton to Pampa to Clarendon line. Observed
soundings and latest mesoanalysis depict strong capping in place
across the moist/unstable sector east of the dryline, leading to a
highly conditional threat of thunderstorm development along the
TX-OK border after 3 PM.

12z suite of hi-res CAMs try to hint that sfc forcing may be
sufficient to generate attempts of convective initiation before 7
PM, but struggle to maintain any organized updrafts with time.
Some model forecast soundings show the cap eroding ever so
slightly this afternoon, but barely. Given how strong capping is,
along with high level cloud cover in place to limit heating,
wouldn`t be surprised to see early attempts at thunderstorm
development in our far eastern areas gradually fail, eventually
turning into "orphan anvils". The more likely opportunity for
convection to be sustained would be later this evening from 6 PM
to midnight across the far northeast combined Panhandles, when the
dryline retreats into a pacific front and upper level ascent is
maximized. If any storms are able to survive as we go through the
evening hours, steep mid-level lapse rates and moderate
instability will be available, in a strongly sheared environment.
This would mostly favor a large hail risk, however would be more
than sufficient to support an isolated tornado threat if storms
can become sfc based. There is a 60-80% chance that storms don`t
even develop today, but if any organized convection does
materialize, it will likely be severe.

Breezy west-southwesterly winds gusting up to 45 mph and very low
RH values less than 10% exist west of the dryline, lending
critical fire weather concerns, especially across the northwest.
Expect these conditions to persist through the evening. Winds will
continue to blow overnight, albeit lighter than this afternoon,
around 15-25 mph.

Harrel

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 216 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

An impressive upper-level trough will be to the north of the
Panhandles to begin Tuesday with the Panhandles in the left entrance
region for much of the day. A sub-990mb surface low in Nebraska but
the surface pressure gradient will be quite steep across the CWA
suggesting breezy to windy conditions will be ongoing. Forecast
soundings suggest the near surface inversion may not be too strong
due to the breezy overnight winds, thus it may not take long for
daytime heating to begin mixing some stronger winds down. Winds
aloft are generally forecast to be stronger in the morning hours
which suggests the peak gusts should be primarily in the morning
hours. The exception to this is that a stronger jet will move in to
a portion of the Oklahoma Panhandle in the mid to late afternoon
hours which introduces the potential for some wind gusts between 40
to 45 mph. Can`t entirely rule out a 50 mph wind gust, but it would
be an isolated occurrence.

Attention then turns to Wednesday night when a surface low develops
in southeastern Colorado and moves east. A strong cold front comes
in behind it with rapid surface pressure rise and a steep surface
pressure gradient leading to windy conditions behind the front. As
is typical with strong cold fronts, there are significant timing
differences regarding when the cold front moves through; NAM brings
the front in around 6 hours quicker than the GFS and ECMWF. Will
lean toward the NAM solution as strong cold fronts typically come in
quicker than the global models forecast. This front will bring in
cool temperatures for the weekend, with Saturday being the coolest.
Some locations in the northwest are currently forecast to stay below
50 degrees all day, while the rest of the CWA stays below 60.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1154 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Conditions will remain generally VFR at all sites with breezy
winds throughout the period. Gusty southwest winds will intensify
over the next several hours into this evening, approaching 40 kts
at times. Blowing dust will be possible as a result and could lead
to pseudo ceilings and minor reductions in visibility. Winds stay
breezy overnight and pick up again tomorrow, with a cold front
expected to enter the northern Panhandles tomorrow morning.

Harrel

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 216 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Breezy west-southwesterly winds and very low RH values exist west
of the dryline, lending critical fire weather concerns,
especially across the northwest. RFTIs of 4 to 8 have developed in
these areas, where winds have already gusted 40-50 mph with RH
values of 5-10%. Expect these conditions to persist through the
afternoon and early evening.

Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are possible Tuesday
across the Oklahoma Panhandle as well as northern and western
sections of the Texas Panhandle. Northwest winds are forecast in
the 25-35 mph range, with gusts of 40-50 mph. Air won`t be quite
as dry tomorrow, but minimum RH values will be as low as 10-20%.

Harrel

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                49  81  46  84 /   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  49  80  43  84 /  40   0   0   0
Boise City OK              44  76  42  81 /   0   0   0   0
Borger TX                  52  85  47  86 /  10   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              49  83  45  86 /   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  49  80  44  84 /   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               52  82  49  82 /  10   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 43  80  40  82 /   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  46  78  42  83 /  10   0   0   0
Hereford TX                48  81  44  85 /   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                52  82  47  82 /  30   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   52  82  47  83 /  10   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                52  84  49  83 /  30   0   0   0
Wellington TX              52  84  49  82 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning until 11 PM CDT this evening for TXZ001>004-
     006>008-011-016.

OK...Red Flag Warning until 11 PM CDT this evening for OKZ001>003.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...38
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...38