035
FXUS64 KAMA 040815
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
315 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

A cold front has passed through the panhandles very early this
morning. This front is causing some light showers and
thunderstorms that will dissipate before the mid morning hours.
The winds have shifted to the N post cold front and are currently
gusting in the 20s to 30s mph. These winds will remain gusty
through the rest of the morning with a slight weakening trend.
The passage of the front will shunt moisture to the S leaving the
panhandles with just cloudy skies. It wont be till the arrival of
a short wave that the moisture will come surging back into the
southern panhandles. This when coupled with the instability of the
short wave will spark off another round of showers and
thunderstorms. The overall dynamics of this system will allow for
stronger storms to develop but this would be over more central TX
and not in the panhandles. This doesn`t mean no strong storms
wont happen in the panhandle just that it is a very low chance.
While the chance of rain may be high the intensity of the rain has
a higher chance of being light as the moisture return wont be
long or strong enough for high rainfall amounts. The moisture will
have a high chance of sticking across the panhandles through the
evening hours but as said before this should only lead to lighter
showers and thunderstorms. It wont be until Sunday morning that
most of the moisture get shunted out of the panhandles that the
showers activity will become very light and isolated. Sunday will
also see a stronger low pressure system develop across the desert
SW which will begin to impact the southern plains. This would
mainly be reflected with an increase in the winds for Sunday and a
shift to a southerly direction. These southerly winds will also
allow for Sunday to be warmer than Saturday with highs in the 70s.

SH

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Some breezy to possibly windy conditions may exist Monday
afternoon (wind gusts potentially up to 50 mph) with a possible
dryline set up across the far eastern combined Panhandles.
Depending on the position of the dryline and upper level support
from a potentially negatively tilted trough at H5 some
thunderstorms will be possible for only the far eastern combined
Panhandles. Have stayed with NBM PoPs for now, around 20 to 30
percent, which may still be too high. This dryline is looking like
it may still be well into western OK with no thunderstorms in the
Panhandles. West of the dryline breezy and dry conditions are
expected and depending on the state of fuels fire weather
conditions may exist.


The rest of the week looks primarily benign with maybe a couple
of weak cold fronts bringing northerly winds and daytime
temperatures back down into the 70s for Thu, and upper 60s to
lower 70s for Fri. Fri a shortwave trough is progged to approach
the far northwestern combined Panhandles with maybe a slight
chance PoPs for the far western OK Panhandle. Beyond day 7, on Sat
is when this trough may actually bring PoPs to the other parts of
the FA. This will be the next potential weather maker after Mon.

36

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1154 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

A cold front is passing through the panhandles this morning
impacting all terminals. This front will bring gusty north winds
to all terminals that will last to the afternoon hours today.
These winds will be strongest with frontal passage and slowly
become weaker through the morning hours. In OK panhandle the front
will cause thunderstorms which can impact KGUY. This thunder
activity is currently not expected to arrive at KDHT and KAMA as
the chance for this are very low. The front will bring low clouds
to all the terminals which will cause MVFR to IFR conditions with
generally lower clouds in the OK panhandle compared to TX
panhandle. This afternoon moisture will surge back into the
panhandles from the S which can cause further showers and
thunderstorms mainly in the S TX panhandles. This activity looks
to be confined to the afternoon to early evening hours but there
is a small chance that it could persist longer. KAMA and KDHT
would be the more likely stations to be impacted by this thunder.
Winds during the afternoon hours will likely weaken and shift to a
more easterly flow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                70  51  74  57 /  20  50  20  10
Beaver OK                  69  47  74  56 /  10  30  30  10
Boise City OK              65  44  75  55 /  10  20  10   0
Borger TX                  73  52  78  59 /  10  40  30  10
Boys Ranch TX              71  51  79  59 /  10  40  20  10
Canyon TX                  70  51  74  57 /  20  40  20  10
Clarendon TX               69  52  70  58 /  40  60  20  20
Dalhart TX                 67  46  75  54 /  10  30  20   0
Guymon OK                  68  46  75  55 /  10  20  20  10
Hereford TX                71  52  77  58 /  20  40  10  10
Lipscomb TX                70  50  74  57 /  10  50  30  10
Pampa TX                   69  51  73  58 /  20  50  30  10
Shamrock TX                71  52  71  57 /  70  60  30  20
Wellington TX              71  54  72  58 /  60  60  20  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...98
LONG TERM....36
AVIATION...98