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Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI
000
FGUS73 KARX 141606
ESFARX
IAC005-037-043-065-067-089-131-191-MNC039-045-055-099-109-157-169-
WIC001-011-019-023-043-053-057-063-081-103-119-121-123-312359-
Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1050 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024
...THIRD AND FINAL 2024 SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK...
The overall risk for flooding this spring is below normal along the
mainstem of the Mississippi River and its associated tributaries
across southeast Minnesota, northeast Iowa, and southwest Wisconsin.
This is the final planned spring flood outlook for 2024.
This information is the last of three planned spring flood and water
resources outlooks providing spring snowmelt and flood potential
information for this upcoming spring. The information that goes into
this outlook was collected from a number of National Weather Service
partners including the United States Geological Survey, US Army
Corps of Engineers, Midwestern Regional Climate Center, US Drought
Monitor, Climate Prediction Center, and NOAA’s Office of Water
Prediction.
This outlook is a summary of the past and present basin conditions
for parts of southeast Minnesota, northeast Iowa, and southwest into
central Wisconsin.
...FLOOD POTENTIAL SUMMARY HIGHLIGHTS…
The overall flood risk for the Upper Mississippi River Basin is
BELOW NORMAL.
...Past Precipitation…
During autumn 2023, it was mainly drier than normal (up to 4” drier
than normal) across northeast Iowa, southeast Minnesota, and south
of Interstate 90 in western Wisconsin. Meanwhile, it was wetter-than-
normal (1 to 6” above normal) north of Interstate 90. Much of this
precipitation fell (2 to 7”) from October 23 through October 25.
As typical during El Niño, much of the Upper Mississippi River
Valley was drier than normal during meteorological winter. Outside
of a narrow line through the Trempealeau and Black River basins, the
entire region received near to below normal precipitation.
Precipitation during autumn and winter was not enough to alleviate
the large precipitation deficits that had increased during the 2023
growing season (since April 1). Precipitation departures ranged from
8 to just over 19 along and south of Interstate 90. The driest areas
were in northeast Iowa. Due to this, these areas are still
experiencing moderate (D1) to extreme drought (D3). The last time
that it has been this dry going into a spring was back in 2004.
During that year, nearly 60% of the La Crosse Hydrologic Service
Area (HSA) was in severe (D2) drought. Since the last outlook, we
have not seen enough additional precipitation to tip the flood
probability scales the other direction. In fact, we have seen
drought expand across the local La Crosse Hydrologic Service area, a
total of 8.38% more of our area is now in drought. This trend was
also seen upstream of our area across much of central Minnesota.
Across the region, precipitation values for the past two weeks have
ranged from no precipitation near the Twin Cities up to around 0.75
inches along a line from Decorah, Iowa to Wausau, Wisconsin.
...River Conditions...
Overall, the amount of water currently moving through our rivers is
below long-term average. Lack of snowmelt runoff this year, due to a
well-below normal seasonal snowfall, is the main contributor.
...Soil Moisture and Frost Depths...
Last September, most of the region was in a drought status. Since
then, despite parts of the area experiencing heavier rains in
October and again in December, drought has expanded across the
region. Due to the drought, soil moisture across the region is well
below normal.
Due to the abnormally warm temperatures this winter, frost depths
are well below normal for this time of year. Our entire region is
free of frost and any future precipitation will be able to absorb
into the soils freely.
...Snow Cover and Liquid Water Content...
A strong El-Niño this past winter played a big role in one of the
warmest winters on record across the Upper Mississippi River Basin.
Any snow that the region received this winter has largely melted
already, leaving little to no snowpack left for a spring melt runoff.
...River Ice Conditions...
The near record-setting warmth this winter has led to rivers being
virtually ice free across our region.
…Weather Outlook…
The above conditions can and often change. The biggest factor
affecting spring flood risks is the weather conditions during the
sensitive period of melting snow. This year, without the presence of
a snowpack, future precipitation is the main (only) driver of any
flood risk moving forward.
For March, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) latest update on
February 29th has shifted the probabilities toward warmer than
normal across much of the region. There are equal chances of wetter-
, near-, and drier-than-normal. Normal temperatures in March range
from 27 to 30°F north of Wisconsin Highway 29 and from 30 to 35°F
elsewhere. March precipitation normals range from 1.6 to 2 inches
along and north of Interstate 94, and from 2 to 2.4 across the
remainder of the area.
During the 7 strong El Niños since 1949-50, 4 have been among the
warmest third, and the remaining 3 were near normal. Precipitation
was highly variable with 4 being among the wettest third, 2 among
the driest third, and 1 near normal. Snowfall was also highly
variable with 4 among the third least, 2 among the snowiest third,
and 1 near normal.
For spring, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center currently shows around
a 40 percent chance for above-normal temperatures through March,
April, and May. There are equal chances for wetter, near, and drier-
than-normal precipitation this spring. The normal precipitation
range during these 3 months ranges from roughly 8 to 11 inches of
precipitation. This outlook will be updated on March 15th.
...Definitions...
In Table 1 below, the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding Minor, Moderate, and Major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.
CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.
HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.
When the value of CS is greater than HS, the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower than
normal.
The term minor flooding is used to indicate minimal or no property
damage. However, some public inconvenience is possible.
The term moderate flooding is used to indicate some inundations of
structures and roads near streams. Some evacuations of people and/or
transfer of property to higher elevations may be needed.
The term major flooding is used to indicate extensive inundations of
structures and roads. Significant evacuations of people and/or
transfer of property to higher elevations will be needed.
...Table 1--Probabilities for Minor, Moderate and Major Flooding...
Valid Period: 03/18/2024 - 06/16/2024
: Current and Historical
: Chances of Exceeding
: Flood Categories
: as a Percentage (%)
Categorical :
Flood Stages (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR
Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---
:Mississippi River
Lake City 16.0 18.0 20.0 : <5 26 <5 8 <5 <5
Wabasha 12.0 14.0 16.0 : 14 61 <5 23 <5 8
Alma Dam 4 16.0 17.0 18.0 : <5 7 <5 6 <5 <5
MN City Dam 5 660.0 662.0 665.0 : <5 28 <5 15 <5 6
Winona Dam 5A 655.0 659.0 661.0 : <5 39 <5 9 <5 5
Winona 13.0 15.0 18.0 : 5 48 <5 24 <5 8
Trempealeau 647.0 649.0 651.0 : <5 37 <5 16 <5 6
La Crescent 641.0 643.0 645.0 : <5 30 <5 14 <5 7
La Crosse 12.0 13.0 15.5 : 5 49 <5 26 <5 8
Genoa 631.0 634.0 636.0 : 8 52 <5 14 <5 7
Lansing 17.0 19.0 20.0 : <5 12 <5 7 <5 <5
Lynxville 625.0 628.0 631.0 : <5 25 <5 9 <5 <5
McGregor 16.0 19.0 22.0 : 8 56 <5 30 <5 10
Guttenberg 15.0 18.0 21.0 : <5 49 <5 16 <5 6
:Zumbro River
Zumbro Falls 18.0 24.0 26.0 : <5 11 <5 <5 <5 <5
:South Fork Zumbro River
Rochester 14.0 18.0 20.0 : <5 6 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Root River
Houston 15.0 17.0 18.0 : <5 9 <5 <5 <5 <5
:South Branch Root River
Lanesboro 12.0 16.0 18.0 : <5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Cedar River
Lansing 18.0 20.0 22.0 : <5 6 <5 <5 <5 <5
Austin 15.0 18.0 20.0 : <5 7 <5 5 <5 <5
Charles City 12.0 15.0 18.0 : <5 21 <5 8 <5 7
:Turtle Creek
Austin 10.5 12.0 14.0 : 7 16 <5 12 <5 <5
:Turkey River
Spillville 9.0 11.0 13.0 : 6 35 5 25 <5 13
Elkader 12.0 16.0 20.0 : 16 44 5 15 <5 <5
Garber 17.0 20.0 23.0 : 10 31 6 17 5 7
:Upper Iowa River
Bluffton 14.0 16.0 18.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Decorah 12.0 13.0 14.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Dorchester 14.0 17.0 19.0 : 9 18 7 8 <5 <5
:Trempealeau River
Arcadia 8.0 9.0 10.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Dodge 10.5 11.0 12.0 : 12 20 6 10 <5 <5
:Black River
Neillsville 18.0 20.0 22.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Black River Falls 47.0 51.0 55.0 : 24 61 13 32 <5 7
Galesville 12.0 13.0 15.0 : 20 59 12 40 <5 <5
:Kickapoo River
La Farge 12.0 13.0 14.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Viola 14.0 16.0 18.0 : <5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Readstown 11.0 14.0 16.0 : 14 30 <5 <5 <5 <5
Soldiers Grove 13.0 16.0 19.0 : 8 17 <5 <5 <5 <5
Gays Mills 13.0 15.0 17.0 : 23 42 5 7 <5 <5
Steuben 12.0 13.0 15.0 : 6 15 <5 8 <5 <5
:Wisconsin River
Muscoda 9.0 10.0 11.0 : <5 18 <5 7 <5 <5
:Yellow River
Necedah 15.0 16.5 18.0 : 27 70 8 45 <5 14
Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet
In Table 2 below, the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.
...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Exceeding Stages
At Specific Locations
Valid Period: 03/18/2024 - 06/16/2024
Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Mississippi River
Lake City 6.9 7.3 8.6 10.4 12.7 14.1 15.1
Wabasha 7.5 7.7 8.5 9.5 11.4 12.2 12.9
Alma Dam 4 4.9 5.3 6.3 7.5 9.6 10.9 11.9
MN City Dam 5 651.4 651.7 652.7 654.0 656.4 658.1 659.0
Winona Dam 5A 646.2 646.5 647.6 649.4 651.9 653.7 654.8
Winona 5.7 5.8 6.6 7.6 10.4 12.2 13.3
Trempealeau 640.2 640.5 641.4 642.5 644.5 645.9 646.7
La Crescent 632.5 632.8 634.3 635.8 637.9 639.8 640.2
La Crosse 5.4 5.6 6.4 7.7 9.8 11.6 12.0
Genoa 622.6 623.0 624.9 626.3 628.9 630.8 631.3
Lansing 8.1 8.2 8.6 9.1 11.0 12.5 13.3
Lynxville 614.9 615.2 616.9 618.4 620.9 622.7 623.5
McGregor 8.4 8.7 9.7 11.2 13.8 15.7 16.8
Guttenberg 6.3 7.1 8.8 10.3 12.6 14.2 14.8
:Zumbro River
Zumbro Falls 5.7 5.9 6.8 9.1 10.4 13.3 15.3
:South Fork Zumbro River
Rochester 3.3 3.6 4.2 5.1 6.2 8.3 11.7
:Root River
Houston 3.5 3.7 4.5 5.5 6.9 8.7 14.6
:South Branch Root River
Lanesboro 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.5 3.7 7.0 11.9
:Cedar River
Lansing 10.5 11.1 11.9 13.3 14.3 15.6 16.5
Austin 4.5 5.5 5.9 7.4 8.9 10.5 11.5
Charles City 3.0 3.4 4.0 5.2 6.7 8.7 11.6
:Turtle Creek
Austin 2.0 2.7 3.7 5.5 7.2 8.9 11.6
:Turkey River
Spillville 2.1 2.1 2.8 3.8 4.9 6.3 11.0
Elkader 6.6 6.9 7.7 8.5 10.6 13.4 16.1
Garber 7.2 7.6 8.6 10.2 13.2 17.2 23.2
:Upper Iowa River
Bluffton 4.2 4.3 4.9 5.8 6.4 7.3 9.8
Decorah 2.5 2.8 3.2 3.7 4.1 6.5 9.1
Dorchester 7.8 8.1 8.8 9.6 10.4 13.2 18.0
:Trempealeau River
Arcadia 3.9 4.1 5.1 6.3 6.8 7.6 8.0
Dodge 6.3 6.7 8.1 8.7 9.3 10.7 11.1
:Black River
Neillsville 5.7 6.1 7.7 9.1 10.4 12.8 13.5
Black River Falls 38.9 39.9 41.9 44.2 46.5 51.6 52.0
Galesville 6.2 7.0 8.5 10.2 11.7 13.0 13.4
:Kickapoo River
La Farge 4.3 4.5 5.2 6.2 7.3 9.1 9.7
Viola 8.7 9.0 9.6 10.2 11.2 13.0 13.9
Readstown 5.5 6.0 6.9 8.4 10.2 11.5 13.0
Soldiers Grove 6.5 6.7 8.3 9.8 12.0 12.9 14.5
Gays Mills 7.9 8.3 9.0 10.9 12.7 13.7 15.0
Steuben 7.5 7.8 8.3 9.6 10.3 11.5 12.8
:Wisconsin River
Muscoda 2.5 2.7 3.2 4.2 5.9 7.0 8.1
:Yellow River
Necedah 10.9 11.3 12.5 13.7 15.1 16.2 16.6
In Table 3 below, the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for
the valid time period.
...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Falling Below Stages
At Specific Locations
Valid Period: 03/18/2024 - 06/16/2024
Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Mississippi River
Lake City 6.5 6.4 6.3 6.1 6.0 5.8 5.7
Wabasha 7.2 7.2 7.1 7.0 7.0 6.8 6.7
Alma Dam 4 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.1
MN City Dam 5 651.3 651.2 651.2 651.1 651.1 651.0 651.0
Winona Dam 5A 645.9 645.9 645.9 645.7 645.7 645.6 645.5
Winona 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.4
Trempealeau 639.8 639.8 639.7 639.5 639.5 639.4 639.3
La Crescent 631.7 631.7 631.7 631.4 631.4 631.3 631.2
La Crosse 5.1 5.1 5.1 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.7
Genoa 621.5 621.5 621.5 621.0 620.9 620.7 620.5
Lansing 7.8 7.8 7.8 7.8 7.8 7.7 7.7
Lynxville 613.4 613.4 613.4 612.9 612.6 612.2 612.0
McGregor 7.9 7.9 7.9 7.6 7.4 7.2 7.1
Guttenberg 5.0 5.0 4.9 4.2 4.0 3.8 3.7
:Zumbro River
Zumbro Falls 5.0 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.7
:South Fork Zumbro River
Rochester 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.3
:Root River
Houston 3.2 3.1 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.8
:South Branch Root River
Lanesboro 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2
:Cedar River
Lansing 9.1 9.0 9.0 9.0 8.9 8.9 8.9
Austin 3.2 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.9
Charles City 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9
:Turtle Creek
Austin 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0
:Turkey River
Spillville 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6
Elkader 5.5 5.4 5.3 5.3 5.1 5.1 5.0
Garber 6.2 6.1 6.0 5.9 5.7 5.7 5.6
:Upper Iowa River
Bluffton 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.7
Decorah 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.3
Dorchester 6.8 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.6 6.5 6.5
:Trempealeau River
Arcadia 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.1
Dodge 5.3 5.3 5.2 5.1 5.0 4.9 4.9
:Black River
Neillsville 3.3 3.1 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.8
Black River Falls 36.4 36.3 36.2 36.1 36.0 36.0 35.9
Galesville 3.9 3.8 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.2
:Kickapoo River
La Farge 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.7
Viola 7.3 7.3 7.2 7.1 6.9 6.8 6.7
Readstown 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.4
Soldiers Grove 4.8 4.7 4.3 4.0 3.5 3.3 3.1
Gays Mills 6.7 6.6 6.5 6.3 6.1 5.9 5.7
Steuben 6.4 6.3 6.1 5.9 5.7 5.6 5.5
:Wisconsin River
Muscoda 1.2 0.8 0.3 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3
:Yellow River
Necedah 9.8 9.7 9.6 9.5 9.4 9.4 9.4
These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data, including current conditions of the
river, soil moisture, snow cover, and 30 and 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range
of probabilities...the level of rise associated with long-range
planning decisions can be determined. These probabilistic
forecasts are part of the National Weather Service`s Advanced
Hydrologic Prediction Service.
All of this information is also available in graphical format
on the internet at:
http://www.weather.gov/lacrosse
The next outlook will be issued in late April.
$$
- National Weather Service
- St. Louis, MO Weather Forecast Office
- 12 Missouri Research Park Drive
- St. Charles, MO 63304-5685
- 636-441-8467
- Page Author: LSX Webmaster
- Web Master's E-mail: w-lsx.webmaster@noaa.gov
- Page last modified: Sep 19th, 2023 19:10 UTC