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000
FXUS61 KBGM 210539
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
139 AM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
It will be cooler and breezy, with scattered rain showers into
early evening. Some snow or graupel may even mix in. A much
welcomed dry stretch of weather will occur Sunday through
Tuesday with seasonable temperatures expected.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1245 AM Update...

Quiet conditions over the region with some lake clouds filtering
in from the west. Temps were a little cold compared to obs so
upped them using latest runs of high res guidance. Temps should
still fall into the low to mid 30s with the cold air mass
continuing to move over the area from the NW.


930 PM Update...
Lingering showers and some clouds have decreased this evening
with the loss of daytime heating. However, some additional
clouds are rolling in off of lakes Erie and Ontario for the
overnight hours. Previous discussion below.

1 pm update...

A cold front is pushing southeast and through the Catskills and
NEPA by 3 PM. Behind this is light showers which will continue
into the early evening. Temperatures in CNY have already started
to fall. The freezing level drops below 5k ft by 5 PM so some
snow and graupel could mix in before ending. Temperatures are
even cold enough for some lake enhancement at the same time so
some showers could linger in CNY past sunset. Late evening into
the overnight skies clear and winds become light. Low
temperatures fall into the upper 20s and low and mid 30s but
dewpoints are even lower so little valley fog.

On Sunday a weak front and upper level short wave move through
with limited moisture. The northwest flow picks up again but
850mb temperatures are rising so no lake enhancement to add to
the mostly cloudy diurnal clouds. A cooler day with highs
mostly in the upper 40s and lower 50s.

Late Sunday and Sunday night high pressure and drier air builds
in. Skies quickly become scattered to clear. Surface winds only
fall to around 10 mph, so temperatures will only fall into the
upper 20s and low and mid 30s again.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
238 PM Update...

Quiet/dry weather will prevail on Monday with zonal flow aloft
and seasonal temperatures. A weak shortwave trough will move
across northern NY Tuesday as a a deeper trough digs south over
the upper Great Lakes. Rain showers associated with the northern
system look to stay just north of the region, keeping the
daylight hours of Tuesday dry, though southwest winds will be a
little on the breezy side in response to deepening low pressure
over western Quebec. This will help advect in some warmer
temperatures, with highs rising from the low/mid-50s on Monday
to the low/mid-60s on Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
238 PM Update

Rain chances will increase later Tuesday night and especially
during the day Wednesday as the deeper shortwave trough rolls
through the area along with an associated cold front. The GFS
continues to show a third shortwave trough dropping in and
phasing with the second one, dragging in some colder air in the
process for Wednesday night. GFS Ensemble 2m temps suggest good
agreement with this scenario, while the ECMWF ensembles show
more of a spread. Dropped temperatures slightly Wednesday night
into Thursday morning as the ECMWF ensembles appear to be
nudging in the cooler direction. This would bring the potential
for a few wrap-around snow showers late Wed into early Thu,
though any accumulations/impacts would be minimal.

A warming trend is most favored Friday and heading into next
weekend. Shower chances look to increase on Saturday, though
with strong high pressure off the east coast, this could well
trend slower over time.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail across all terminals through the
TAF period.

WNW winds from 10-15 kts gusting up to 25 kts return for the
late morning through the afternoon. Winds lighten up in the
evening hours.

Outlook...

Sunday night through Tuesday...Mainly VFR.

Tuesday night through Wednesday night...Occasional restrictions
possible in rain showers.

Thursday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JTC/TAC
NEAR TERM...JTC/MWG/TAC
SHORT TERM...MPH
LONG TERM...MPH
AVIATION...JTC