Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 251450
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
950 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light snow will continue over the southeast part of the
  forecast area today. Areas of blowing snow will reduce
  visibility across the east in winds gusting around 40 mph.

- Well below average temperatures remain through mid-week before
  a warming trend takes us closer to near normal temperatures.

- A weather disturbance late this week may bring mixed
  precipitation to the area.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 950 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

Only minor updates to the forecast were needed at this time.
Light snow continues over portions of the southwest, with strong
and gusty north northeast winds occasionally dropping
visibility to around 2 miles due to blowing snow. Made some
minor adjustments to the sky grids to account for a more rapid
dwindling of cloud cover over portions of the north and west.
Otherwise, the forecast remains on track.


.UPDATE...
Issued at 725 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

Have decided to keep headlines as they are for now. The more
steady area of precipitation was moving north through eastern
South Dakota. Will need to reevaluate the headlines as that gets
closer to the forecast area and the western edge is better
determined.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 430 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

Changes were made to winter weather headlines over the past few
hours. As of the writing of this discussion winter weather
advisories were in effect for the area, generally, east and
south of Bismarck, through the James River Valley.

The center of the Colorado Low that has been impacting our
weather was over eastern Kansas and moving to the northeast. A
high pressure ridge was nosing south along the North Dakota and
Montana border. The area east and south of Bismarck will
continue to be impacted by the low through today and into
tonight. Although the heavier precipitation shield will stay to
the south and east, the far western edge, light snow, will pass
up through the James River Valley today and into tonight. The
CAMS agree on this with the NAM Nest having the biggest impact
and farthest west edge to the snow shield. Based on the
25th/75th percentiles for snow accumulation, an inch or two of
snow should fall in the area south of Jamestown today.

The bigger issue will be the north wind, gusting as high as 40
mph in a even tighter pressure gradient. The blowing snow model,
considering the snow depth, falling snow and wind speeds, was
into the definite category for LaMoure and Dickey counties for
today for blowing snow. The sensible weather result should be
reduced visibility in blowing snow, and considerable drifting of
snow, leading to travel concerns and keeping snow removal crews
busy as snow will be drifting back in across already plowed
roads.

There is some concern that LaMoure and Dickey counties will be
dealing with the storm effects even into Tuesday as the storm
center tracks close enough to continue its negative influence.

Attention also is warranted to the below seasonal normal
temperatures over the next few days, with some lows forecast to
be below zero, and daytime highs only in the 20s. This looks to
moderate for the middle and end of the week. Confidence is high
(90%) that temperatures will be warmer for the end of the week
but there is a large spread in solutions to what those
temperatures will actually be. In some cases a 15 degree
variation in the answer to that question for a given point.
So, warmer, just how much warmer remains to be determined.

The next chance for precipitation comes for later Thursday
through Friday. Considering the above discussion on temperatures
the most likely scenario would be for mixed types, rain and
snow.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 950 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

Light snow will continue through the first half of the TAF
valid period south and east of KBIS. Areas of BLSN will continue
east of a line from KMOT to KBIS through much of the TAF valid
period, decreasing after 26/05Z. Where -SN falls expect MVFR
ceilings and visibility, and MVFR visibility in BLSN. Gusty
northeast to north winds over the eastern half of the forecast
area with G35 knots maximum.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for NDZ025-
036-037.
Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for NDZ046>048-
050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Adam
DISCUSSION...JPM
AVIATION...Besson


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