807
FXUS64 KBMX 031403
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
903 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday)
Issued at 903 AM CDT FRI MAY 3 2024

The short-term forecast remains on-track, just made minor
adjustments to PoPs and Sky cover. The initial shortwave is now
over Northeast Georgia while we have some lingering showers across
parts of the northern counties with heavier activity across the
far northwest where a few lightning strikes were detected from
time to time. This activity is likely occurring along an outflow
boundary.

A more-defined shortwave is over much of Arkansas and Northern
Louisiana and will continue approaching the area through midday.
Expect increasing clouds across the west and southwest from mid
to late morning with chances for showers and storms developing and
arriving from the west through the afternoon, expanding further
eastward with time through the rest of the afternoon and into
tonight.

05

Previous short-term discussion:
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 242 AM CDT FRI MAY 3 2024

A rather messy upper flow pattern the next few days with several
waves of showers and embedded thunderstorms to track eastward across
the northern portions of Central Alabama. Despite decent coverage of
rain each day across the north, rainfall amounts will be rather
modest with most areas receiving less than one-half inch of total
rainfall. Highs in the mid to upper 80s expected across areas south
of I-20, while cloud cover and rain will keep temperatures slightly
cooler north of I-20, with highs in the lower to middle 80s.

58/rose

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 253 AM CDT FRI MAY 3 2024

Weak quasi-zonal flow aloft continues Sunday, with yet another
convectively enhanced shortwave/MCV moving in from the Plains
during the late afternoon and evening hours. PWATs around 1.8
inches will be favorable for scattered to numerous showers and
storms developing with daytime heating, highest chances north.
The shortwave appears a touch slower than previously forecast and
have raised PoPs Sunday evening. Shortwave ridging in advance of
the shortwave trough should allow temperatures to warm into the
mid to upper 80s ahead of convection. A deep trough will eject
across the Central and Northern Plains Monday with ridging
building ahead of it. The prior weak shortwave may still be close
enough to some of the northeastern counties to enhance diurnal
convection there. The deep trough remains across the north-central
CONUS on Tuesday as ridging builds over the Southeast CONUS.
Strengthening low-level southwesterly flow will cause efficient
mixing and warming temperatures/lowering dew points especially
across the southeast half of the area, suppressing convection. But
moisture pooling ahead of a stalled frontal boundary may remain
sufficient for isolated to scattered convection in the northwest
counties.

Wednesday and Thursday a trough with a strong positive tilt will
extend from the Great Lakes to the Four Corners while subtropical
ridging strengthens over the Gulf. The tightening mid-level height
gradient between these two features will result in strengthening WSW
flow aloft. A quasi-stationary frontal boundary will reside across
the Mid-South with several waves of low pressure riding along it. A
strong EML will result in a very unstable air mass south of the
front with strong deep layer shear as well. An early spring heatwave
with near record highs looks likely across the southern counties.
Will have to watch any convective disturbances skirting near the
northern counties along the northern fringes of the warmer 700mb
temperatures given a conditionally favorable environment for
severe storms.

32/Davis

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 627 AM CDT FRI MAY 3 2024

A zonal upper flow pattern across the southern United States with
weak ridging along the Gulf Coast will result in scattered to
numerous showers with embedded tstms impacting mainly north
Alabama thru the period. Cigs will stay mostly aoa 5000 ft agl
with lcl vsbys blo 3 miles in heavy showers. MVFR/IFR cigs will
development after 09Z.

58/rose

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Moisture increases today. RH values will fall into the mid to
upper 30s in the southeast, with higher values elsewhere.
Scattered showers/storms return for Friday afternoon in the
north and west and spread east through Saturday. RH values range
from 40 to 60 percent Saturday afternoon, lowest values south.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     82  63  82  61 /  60  60  60  30
Anniston    83  65  83  63 /  40  40  60  30
Birmingham  82  66  84  65 /  50  50  40  30
Tuscaloosa  83  67  85  65 /  50  60  40  20
Calera      82  66  84  65 /  40  50  40  20
Auburn      84  67  84  66 /  20  30  40  30
Montgomery  86  67  88  66 /  20  20  30  20
Troy        86  66  88  64 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....32
AVIATION...58