Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
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853 FXUS64 KBMX 021121 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 621 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 203 AM CDT THU MAY 2 2024 Another warm day on tap across Central Alabama with plenty of sunshine and temperatures reaching the upper 80s in most places. The combination of very warm temperatures and a weak surface boundary that stretches from near Tupelo to Auburn could result in isolated thunderstorms this afternoon. Fair this evening with no rain expected. A short wave trough currently over Texas and Oklahoma will track eastward today and tonight. Showers with embedded storms will impact areas along and north of I-20 after midnight. The rain cooled air mass will push southward on Friday triggering numerous showers and a chance of thunderstorms to areas north of I-85. Any storms that develop are expected to remain below severe limits today through Friday. 58/rose && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 203 AM CDT THU MAY 2 2024 We will continue to see a shortwave slide through the area Friday night in Saturday. This along with the subtropical jet streak nosing in, we should see scattered to numerous showers and storms into Saturday morning. The highest chances will be in the north where heights will be lower. Overall dynamics are weak with this system so severe weather is not expected. Sunday into Monday ridging will strengthen ahead of a deep trough moving into the western CONUS. Rain chances will decrease, but there will still be some scattered shower and thunderstorm activity with elevated PWATs combined with weak shortwaves and daytime heating. Ridging and associated warm air aloft increases further on Tuesday as a deep upper low ejects out over the Northern Plains. This should result in dry conditions with 90 degree temperatures becoming more common across the southern counties as low-level southwesterly flow strengthens for end of this period. 16 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 618 AM CDT THU MAY 2 2024 VFR conds thru the period with mainly high level clouds and isolated TSRA during the afternoon hours. Sfc winds becoming southeast 5-7 kts after 14Z. 58/rose && .FIRE WEATHER... Min RHs will be in the 30s again this afternoon with 20 foot winds from the south around 5-7 mph. A few isolated showers may develop during peak heating this afternoon, but chances remain low. Moisture increases on Friday as a system moves into the area. RH values will fall into the mid to upper 30s in the southeast, with 40s elsewhere. 20 foot winds from the south around 4-6 mph. Good overnight recoveries are expected each night. Scattered showers/storms return for Friday afternoon in the northwest and spread east through Saturday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 88 64 81 62 / 10 30 50 70 Anniston 88 66 81 63 / 10 20 40 60 Birmingham 88 68 81 64 / 10 30 50 60 Tuscaloosa 88 68 80 64 / 20 30 50 50 Calera 87 67 80 65 / 20 20 40 50 Auburn 87 67 85 67 / 10 10 20 40 Montgomery 89 67 86 66 / 20 10 20 30 Troy 89 64 88 65 / 20 10 10 20 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...58 LONG TERM....16 AVIATION...58/rose