Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
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262 FXUS61 KBTV 010606 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 206 AM EDT Wed May 1 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Areas of fog and dense fog have formed behind yesterday`s front and will be a hazard this morning for travelers this morning. Weaker troughs will bring additional chances of showers later this week, but overall conditions will be calmer with mild temperatures. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 156 AM EDT Wednesday...Added patchy fog area-wide with some localized ares being dense. Dense fog should be expected away from the lake shore along elevations above 200-400 ft. Otherwise, showers are exiting the North Country with light drizzle occurring across southern Vermont. Drizzle in southern Vermont will give way to fog for the morning commute. Previous Discussion...Showers have ended across much of the region, with just a little rain still lingering over Rutland and Windsor Counties. Low clouds continue to blanket the area behind the frontal boundary and associated showers as low- level moisture gets trapped under the inversion. Have started seeing some reports of patchy fog, including here at BTV where visibility is down to 4 miles. Have added patchy fog to the forecast for tonight, keeping coverage somewhat limited for now as there are still some locations with slightly stronger winds. Otherwise, the forecast is in good shape and no other changes were needed with this update. Previous discussion...Clearing to the west has increased instability ahead of the main front, which is currently moving into western New York. Although there is some mid level instability, the greatest chances are further south over the Hudson Valley, so although a few thunderstorms may pop up this evening, we are not expecting a line of heavier thunderstorms like we saw this morning and chances of hail within these storms have decreased. Showers and thunderstorms will eventually transition over to more widespread rain this evening as the main front moves through. Precipitation chances diminish behind the front tonight and Wednesday, but kept some chances of showers with relatively mild temperatures and upslope flow continuing. Temperatures will range from the 40s overnight into the upper 50s/low-mid 60s for Wednesday. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 331 PM EDT Tuesday...A weak shortwave drops down into the region from Canada on Wednesday night into Thursday, leading to some showers, particularly in northern areas. QPF values have increased slightly from the previous forecast, although overall less than 0.25" is still expected, mainly close to the Canadian border. There is still some uncertainty between models on how far southward this shortwave will dip, so adjusted QPFs downward slightly to account for that. Should the front dip further southward, QPF could be a little higher but still mostly under 0.5". Showers will move out Thursday afternoon and there should at least be a little clearing. 925 mb temperatures generally will be between 8-12 Celsius and as the showers move out, the boundary layer should eventually mix that high. This would support highs in the 60s, possibly reaching the low 70s further south. There should be a decent north to south temperature gradient as well as there will be lower 925 mb temperatures and more showers/clouds to the north. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 331 PM EDT Tuesday...Brief ridging builds in on Friday, leading to dry weather and a few breaks in the clouds. The ridge looks to break down on Saturday as an occluded front makes its way into the region and brings some rain through Sunday morning. Overall, the front should be falling apart as it moves through and the QPF looks quite unimpressive, with less than a third of ensemble members even bringing a quarter inch of rain to any part of the region. A few members are suggesting that a low will develop along the front and enhance the rainfall but those solutions currently look to be the outliers. The trailing cold front looks to move through around Monday and it may bring a few more showers. Despite several fronts moving through during the time period, temperatures look to be relatively consistent. Highs should generally be in the 60s to around 70 while lows should generally be in the 40s and 50s. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 00Z Thursday...Widespread IFR/VLIFR conditions due to low stratus will continue 12-16Z with MPV/SLK lingering longest. VIS will be more variable due to fog ranging 1/2sm-4sm in general with 6+sm most likely at PBG. Worst VIS will be 08-13Z then improving quickly 13-15Z. Then MVFR CIGs likely through 22Z before a chance of VFR through about 05Z. Another weak trough is moving in out of southern Canada and will bring more shower chances 22Z today to 12Z Thursday mainly from the Champlain Valley northeastward. Outlook... Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. NO SIG WX. Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Saturday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Sunday: MVFR. Chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Boyd NEAR TERM...Boyd/Hastings/NWS ALY SHORT TERM...NWS ALY LONG TERM...NWS ALY AVIATION...Boyd