Text Products for ESF Issued by BTV

Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
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Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook
National Weather Service Burlington VT
440 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024

...Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook...
This is the sixth flood outlook for the 2024 winter/spring flood
season. Flood outlooks are issued bi-weekly by the National
Weather Service in Burlington, Vermont to summarize the flood
potential due to snowmelt and break up/formation of river ice
across northern and central Vermont and northern New York. This
outlook is valid for the two week period from March 14 to March
28, 2024.

...Overview...
The potential for open water flooding through late March is below
normal for the St. Lawrence Valley of New York and the
northwestern Adirondacks. Elsewhere, across the Adirondacks, the
Champlain Valley of Vermont and New York, and all of Vermont, the
open water flooding threat is normal. A very localized area of
Essex County New York has above normal flood potential. There is
little to no river ice present, leading to a below normal to non
existent threat for ice jams in the area over the next two weeks.

March has begun unseasonably mild and wetter than normal across
the region. March average temperature departures have ranged from
+7 to +15F above normal. The above normal temperatures, increasing
sun angle and melt runoff from precipitation events earlier this
month has continued to deplete snow cover, even with the
accumulating snow event for the higher elevations on March 9 and
10.

The following is a summary of the conditions by region as of
Thursday morning, March 14, 2024:

...St Lawrence Valley...
.Flood Risk...Below normal
.Snow Cover...Below normal, no snow cover
.Water Equivalent...Below normal, none
.Streamflows...Normal to above normal
.Soil state...Above normal wetness
.Groundwater...Normal to above normal
.River Ice...None

...Northern Adirondacks...
.Flood Risk...Below normal west, normal east
.Snow Cover...Below normal, 1 to 3 inches in the lower slopes, to
4 to 7 inches in mid terrain and 1-2+ ft in the High Peaks above
3,000 feet
.Water Equivalent...Below normal, 1 to 3 inches, mainly in mid
terrain, with 4+ inches in the High Peaks above 3,000 feet.
.Streamflows...Normal to much above normal
.Soil state...Above normal wetness
.Groundwater...Above normal
.River Ice...Minimal coverage

...Champlain Valley...
.Flood Risk...Near normal
.Snow Cover...Below normal, no snow cover
.Water Equivalent...Below normal, none to less than 1 inch
.Streamflows...Normal to above normal
.Soil state...Above normal wetness
.Groundwater...Above normal
.River Ice...None

...Central/northern Green Mountains and Upper CT River Valley...
.Flood Risk...Near normal
.Snow Cover...Below normal. Values ranging from a just a few
inches along the Connecticut River, to 3 to 6 inches above 1500
feet
.Water Equivalent...Below normal, ranging from 1 to 3 inches
above 1500 feet
.Streamflows...Above to much normal
.Soil state...Above normal wetness
.Groundwater...Normal to above normal
.River Ice...Minimal coverage

...Southern VT and the adjacent Connecticut River Valley...
.Flood Risk...Near normal
.Snow Cover...Below normal, with less than 3 inches and large
areas of bare ground in valleys/lower elevations, and 8 to 18
inches above 1500 feet
.Water Equivalent...Below normal, less than an inch in the larger
valleys, 1 to 4 inches in mid-terrain, and 4+ inches above 3,000
feet
.Streamflows...Above to much above normal
.Soil state...Above normal wetness
.Groundwater...Near normal
.River Ice...Minimal coverage

..Snow Depths and Water Equivalent...
The unseasonably warm and rainy pattern which occurred over early
March has led to below normal snow depths and water equivalents.
Some snow was gained in the higher elevations this past week, but
values remain below seasonal normals.

...River and River Ice Conditions...
Daily and multi-day averaged streamflows remain at or above
normal across the entire region. This is indicative of residual
interflow and runoff from recent precipitation, and some surface
recharge through snowmelt in the lower elevations.

Given the recent warmth and rainfall, there is no notable river
ice to speak of. No ice jams are currently reported.

...Soil Moisture and Groundwater Conditions...
Moist soil moisture conditions have persisted across the region
over the past two weeks. Some of the moist near-surface readings
have occurred due to recent snowmelt recharge and rainfall,
especially in the lower to mid elevations. This is supported by
the latest groundwater data from the United States Geological
Survey showing most values ranging through the mid to upper
quartiles.

...Weather Outlook...
Although the 6-10 day outlooks from NOAA`s Climate Prediction
Center show near normal temperatures and precipitation, we return
to above normal temperatures and precipitation in the 8-14 day
range. This appears reasonable given the most recent forecasts of
the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Pacific North America Index
showing a more progressive weather pattern. Regardless, the most
recent data suggests no large-scale, heavy rain/snow events are
expected for the period giving confidence to the outlook as a
whole.

...Summary...
Based on the meteorological and hydrological information
discussed above, the potential for open water flooding over the
next two weeks is below normal for the St. Lawrence Valley of New
York and northwestern Adirondacks. Elsewhere, across the
northeastern Adirondacks, central and northern Vermont including
the entire Champlain Valley and southern Vermont east of the Green
Mountains, the open water flooding threat is normal. With little
in the way of ice coverage and thickness on area rivers, the
overall threat of ice jam flooding is below normal across far
northern watersheds through mid March, in fact the threat for ice
jam flooding has likely passed for this year. Finally, while the
level on Lake Champlain remains about one foot above normal, a
more normal flood threat is expected for the lake going forward
into spring.

It is important to remember that heavy rainfall can result in
flooding at any time of year, even in areas that have little or no
snow on the ground and overall predictability beyond 10 days is
generally on the lower side of average.

A graphic depicting the flood potential across the NWS Burlington
service area is available online at:

www.weather.gov/nerfc/springfloodpotential

The next Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook will be issued by
NWS Burlington on Thursday, March 28, 2024.

For access to current weather conditions and forecasts, please
visit our web site at www.weather.gov/btv.

$$

Neiles
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
