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000
FNUS71 KBTV 221845
FWSBTV

Spot Forecast for Norton Farm Road Rx Fire...USFS - Green Mountain National Forest
National Weather Service Burlington VT
245 PM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 2000 EDT on April 22.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (802) 658-0207, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...

After a dry and windy day today, we will see decent RH recovery
overnight with Max RH values between 67% and 72%. Following daybreak,
strong and gusty southerly winds will quickly develop with winds gusting
up to 25 to 30 mph by the early afternoon. Based on partial sheltering,
eye level winds are expected to be in the 7-12 mph range based on
how gusty the winds become in the afternoon. Mix RH values will drop
below 30% as temperatures warm into the mid 60s. Winds will diminish
slightly Tuesday night with a widespread wetting rain expected Tuesday
night into Wednesday as a cold front moves through the region. Rainfall
amounts of a quarter to a third of an inch is expected to fall over
the fire during this time.

.REST OF TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Begin/end of pcpn...
Min temperature.....Around 29.
Max humidity........72 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 6 to 9 mph.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 6 to 13 mph.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........4      4      4      8      5
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1
Temp............40     35     32     30     31
RH..............33     40     47     53     58
20 ft wind......S 6    S 7    S 7    S 8    S 9
20 ft wind gust.9      9      10     12     12
Mix hgt (ft)....500    500    400    500    500
Transport wind..SW 6   S 9    S 10   S 12   S 13
Haines index....4      4      4      5      5

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Begin/end of pcpn...
Max temperature.....Around 60.
Min humidity........28 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 9 to 16 mph.
Mixing height.......5200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 13 to 22 mph increasing to 23 to 26
                    mph late in the morning.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........9      14     12     17     30     43
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............30     34     43     53     57     60
RH..............66     61     47     33     30     28
20 ft wind......S 9    S 12   S 14   S 14   S 16   S 16
20 ft wind gust.13     17     20     23     25     26
Mix hgt (ft)....600    1000   2600   4400   5200   4700
Transport wind..S 13   SW 16  SW 22  SW 24  SW 25  S 26
Haines index....5      4      4      4      4      4

.TUESDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers in the evening, then rain showers
                    overnight.
Chance of pcpn......90 percent.
LAL.................1.
Begin/end of pcpn...
Min temperature.....Around 43.
Max humidity........86 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 12 to 15 mph.
Mixing height.......1000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 15 to 23 mph.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........61     74     84     88     100    100
Weather cov.....              S CHC  CHANCE LIKELY DEFNTE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      20     40     70     80
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............57     53     50     48     46     44
RH..............33     43     50     58     71     79
20 ft wind......S 15   S 14   S 14   S 14   S 13   S 12
20 ft wind gust.24     21     20     20     18     17
Mix hgt (ft)....3300   1100   1100   1100   1000   1000
Transport wind..S 23   S 18   SW 16  SW 15  S 15   SW 15
Haines index....4      4      4      4      3      3

$$
Forecaster...Clay
Requested by...LR Silvia
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2411768.0/BTV
.DELDT 04/22/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL lindsay.r.silvia@usda.gov,eric.hughes@usda.gov