Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 271042
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
642 AM EDT Wed Mar 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving cold front will cross our region today, with scattered
rain showers. It will turn progressively cooler behind the front
through Friday, but with fair weather. A compact low may bring a few
showers of rain and snow to western New York to start the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
This morning the main cold front lies across the western waters of
Lake Erie. Initial wave of showers are waning this early morning,
with a few lingering near far western zones.

This shower activity will fade a few hours after sunrise with the
loss of the 50 knot LLJ and depletion of moisture around 700 hPa.
This LLJ weakening should also diminish the isolated stronger
downslope wind gusts off the higher terrain of SW NYS, and the
western and northwestern slope of the Tug Hill.

Initially the cold front will pass across the region dry, with
deeper synoptic moisture now off to our north and east. As this slow
moving front nears the Genesee Valley, the reintroduction of
moisture in the mid levels will encourage the development of shower
in a narrow band with lift along the cold front. Best timing for
showers would be later in the day and into the evening for the
Genesee Valley eastward into the Finger Lakes, and North Country.
Not expecting much rainfall, with most areas less than a tenth of an
inch through the evening.

High pressure will then nose towards our region tonight. This will
bring fair weather, albeit still with mostly cloudy skies to start
as we remain under an upper level trough. Some clearing possible
late across far western zones with drier air building in.

It will be on the mild side today, especially towards the east with
the later arrival of the cold front. Highs will range from upper 40s
to the west, and lower 60s for the Finger Lakes. Temperatures today
will not rise much west of the Genesee Valley with cold air
advection aloft behind the cold front. Tonight will feature
temperatures in the low to mid 30s behind the cold front.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Quiet weather through the period. High pressure will build in from
the south to promote dry conditions both Thursday and Friday.
Temperatures, though cooler will be near seasonal normals as a
broad low drifts over Hudson Bay and slowly fills in.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Deterministic guidance (12Z ECMWF and GFS) still at odds(timing) to
when a weak shortwave moving through the zonal flow aloft will
impact the eastern Great Lakes Saturday and/or Saturday night. Have
kept chance Pops for most locales, with the greatest potential for
showers over SW NYS.

High pressure builds in Sunday, which will bring fair dry weather
through Monday. The next system to impact western and central New
York still looks on track for late Monday night and Tuesday. Low
pressure over the plains will push a warm front towards our region,
possibly bringing a soaking rain or rain/snow showers.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
For the 12Z TAFS MVFR to VFR ceiling heights ahead of a cold front,
with most of the morning showers having now ended. It will remain
breezy, with gusts upwards to 25 knots or so through the morning at
KART.

The cold front will pass across the TAF region slowly, this morning
towards the west, and not exiting our eastern zones till later
tonight.

Deeper moisture is associated with the prefrontal trough/warm front
is now off to our north and east. As the cold front crosses the
region later today, a line of light showers is expected to develop
as some mid level moisture returns, with showers near KROC and then
later KART this early evening. But lacking deeper moisture
visibilities should remain VFR.

Ceiling heights may dip to IFR across the Southern Tier early this
morning, otherwise ceilings will remain MVFR to VFR today, and
improving to VFR tonight.

Outlook...

Thursday and Friday...VFR.
Saturday...VFR, but with showers possible far west late.
Sunday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A cold front will slowly cross the Lakes today and this evening with
southerly winds, with a bit of a gust at times, becoming westerly
later today and tonight. The southerly winds will be strongest along
the eastern Lake Ontario shoreline from Sandy Pond to the Saint
Lawrence River where speeds upwards to 20 knots will remain through
the afternoon. Otherwise winds will largely remain below small craft
thresholds, with a choppy lake water of several feet.

Behind this cold front high pressure will nose towards our region
with winds and waves diminishing Thursday.

Cold air advection combined with a tightening pressure gradient
between the surface high and a strengthening east coast low will
increase northwest winds Thursday night, that may reach small craft
thresholds, along with wave heights late Thursday night and Friday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Thomas
NEAR TERM...Thomas
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...Thomas
MARINE...Thomas


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