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000
FXUS61 KBUF 150213
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1013 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in tonight and bring a return to drier
weather that will last through Tuesday. Unsettled weather then
returns by midweek as another broad low pressure system moves into
the Great Lakes.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY EVENING/...
Broad high pressure building in from the west should lead to a
MOSTLY dry and quiet night, though expect some wealth post-frontal
clouds to linger. There could also be a stray sprinkle up in the
North Country. Otherwise, temps will fall back into the low 40s in
most spots, with upper 30s across the Tug and Western Dacks.

Ridging will continue to build into the region Monday in the wake of
the cold front should keep a mainly dry forecast intact from the
Finger Lakes westward. Meanwhile, the base of an upper level trough
will linger across northern New York. A shortwave rotating southeast
through the base of the trough will send a secondary boundary
toward the Saint Lawrence Valley. This may develop a few showers,
mainly across the eastern Lake Ontario region, with best chances
toward the Saint Lawrence Valley closer to the surface boundary.
Expect seasonable temperatures with highs lower to mid 50s east
of Lake Ontario, with mid 50s to near 60 across western New York.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure slowly builds in aloft and at the surface Monday
night which will bring dry weather to all locales through the day
Tuesday.

A warm front will then slowly approach from the southwest Tuesday
night but will not have much of an impact with continued dry
weather. The warm front will then ever so slowly nudge east and
northeast on Wednesday. That said...it remains to be seen how much
inroads it will make as it runs into the stout ridge fixed to our
north and northeast. Furthermore...the system is weakening and
beginning to occlude as it moves east. Right now...the best shot at
seeing showers on Wednesday looks to be from the Finger Lakes region
west across western New York. Elsewhere...the North Country will
more than likely stay dry for much of the day Wednesday if not all.

Wednesday night...showers potenial does increase some but overall
coverage is uncertain and it may not be a complete washout. This is
where uncertainty really increases in the latest guidance package
with the overall progression of the fronts and shower coverage. Have
leaned on NBM guidance but have lowered PoPs a bit considering the
uncertainty.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Thursday and Thursday night surface low pressure over the central
Great Lakes will continue to weaken as it gets stretched and
eventually sheared apart...with its northern portion eventually
getting absorbed by a northern stream trough pushing east across
central Canada. As this occurs...its trailing surface occlusion will
also gradually weaken and become increasingly ill-defined as it
tries pushing across New York State. Consequently...fairly numerous
showers across the area Thursday morning will tend to weaken and
diminish in coverage while gradually shifting eastward through the
rest of Thursday and Thursday night. Given the continued weakening
and slowing nature of this system have opted for a somewhat slower
eastward progression of the showers than advertised by the NBM...but
in general still have PoPs decreasing from high likely on Thursday
to the lower half of the chance range by later Thursday night.
Otherwise temperatures will remain on the milder side of normal...
with highs in the lower to mid 60s Thursday followed by lows mostly
in the mid to upper 40s Thursday night.

Friday through Saturday the northern stream trough will continue to
plow its way eastward across Ontario and Quebec...with this and its
attendant surface low near James Bay helping to pivot a trailing
cold front east across our area. While some differences in timing of
this front persist...in general this will result in a renewed
potential for at least some scattered showers during this time
frame...along with a downward trend in temperatures with highs in
the upper 50s/lower 60s Friday pulling back to the upper 40s to mid
50s Saturday.

After that...uncertainty persists with respect to just how much
southeastward headway the front manages to make before one or more
southern stream waves ripple northeastward along the departing
boundary...with inconsistencies continuing both amongst the various
models and from one guidance cycle to the next. Currently...the GEM
is notably slower with this than the GFS and ECMWF...which results
in the former spreading more pcpn across our area Saturday night...
while the latter models keep us largely dry. Given this large
discrepancy and the distant time frame...for now will just indicate
some slight chance PoPs for both Saturday night and Sunday.
Otherwise temperatures will run a bit below normal...which could
allow for some wet snow to mix in across the higher terrain later
Saturday night/early Sunday if precipitation is realized.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
While VFR conditions will be in place through the TAF period...a mid
level disturbance will cross the St Lawrence valley late tonight and
Monday morning to support MVFR to IFR cigs between 09 and 15z at
KROC and KART.

Outlook...

Monday night...Mainly VFR.
Tuesday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers Tuesday night.
Wednesday and Thursday...MVFR/VFR with showers likely.
Friday...MVFR/VFR with a chance of showers.

&&

.MARINE...
A weak sfc pressure gradient will support mainly gentle to moderate
breezes and negligible wave action through Monday. The exception
could be on the east end of Lake Ontario where a short period of
moderate westerlies will generate choppy conditions and possibly a
short period in the afternoon/evening where a small craft advisory
could be necessary.

High pressure settling to the southeast from central Canada will
then maintain SCA conditions for MOnday night into Tuesday night.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR/TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH