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000
FXUS62 KCAE 140807
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
407 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure and upper ridging will build over the
southeastern states during the first part of the week resulting
in warm and dry conditions. The ridge will weaken mid-week as a
pair of cold fronts approach the area bringing the potential
for showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will be above to
well above normal through most of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure sets up off to the south today, while a weak lee
shortwave and surface trough move through the cwa tonight.
Although there will be a gradual moisture increase ahead of the
surface trough, forecast remains dry. May only see a few clouds
as the shortwave moves through this evening. Temperatures will
continue to warm, with highs in the low to middle 80s on tap for
this afternoon. Lows tonight moderate into the upper 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Heights rise through the period as upper ridging over the
Central CONUS shifts overhead by Tuesday night. Meanwhile,
surface high pressure will be anchored near Bermuda promoting
an increase in temperatures and moisture. A cold front is
expected to stall over the Mid-Atlantic but it appears that
ridging will keep any rain to our north and the only impacts we
may see come in the form of scattered clouds Monday evening
across our northern counties. Otherwise, skies should be
generally clear Monday with increasing mid to high level
cloudiness on Tuesday ahead of an approaching cold front.
Guidance continues to remain high regarding the potential for
well above normal temperatures both Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The extended opens with upper ridging passing to our east in
response to an upper low moving northeast into the Great Lakes,
opening into a trough on Wednesday. At the surface, the forecast
area will be in the warm sector of a mature cyclone centered in
Iowa at the start of the period. The low weakens as it too moves
into the Great Lakes region. There will likely be plenty of
clouds around, resulting in slightly cooler temperatures, but
any precipitation should be confined in the Upstate.

Later in the week, the upper pattern will consist of an upper
low moving across southern Canada and a zonal flow across the
Southeastern US. Meanwhile, a pair of cold fronts will cross the
FA bringing a chance of showers Friday and Saturday. A few
thunderstorms are possible in the afternoon and evening,
especially on Saturday but with zonal flow aloft, the lift isn`t
not supportive of any organized convection. The air mass behind
these fronts is not particularly cold with above normal
temperatures likely to continue through the extended.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR through the 24 hr forecast period.

Dry high pressure remains centered south of the region. Forecast
will continue to be dry, with only a few upper clouds moving
across the area this afternoon/evening ahead of a weak
shortwave. Conditions remaining vfr at all sites. Light winds
this morning increasing out of the west around 10 knots this
afternoon. A few gusts over 15 knots may occur, but much better
conditions than the past few days. Winds diminish by sunset,
becoming light and out of the southwest.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR conditions.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$