919
FXUS62 KCAE 111750
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
150 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure keeps the area dry through the weekend and into
the beginning of next week. The high then moves offshore Monday
and increasing moisture supports daily chances for showers and
thunderstorms through the week ahead.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A well-developed cyclone is moving through the Great Lakes region
today, while surface high pressure is building over the southeast.
Satellite imagery and a look out the window reveals a scattered fair-
weather cu deck across much of the Midlands with some lingering
moisture in the atmosphere. Surface observations show west to
northwest winds continue to usher in a drier airmass with dewpoints
in the low to mid 40s, while temperatures have warmed into the low
to mid 70s.

Fair weather continues the remainder of today as the upper trough
north of us continues to move east into New England, reinforcing
northwest flow aloft. A weak surface trough and front associated
with this upper low will then move through the region tonight, but
with PW values only around 0.5", no precip is expected. Main effect
will be another slight wind shift from the west to the northwest
late tonight into Sunday morning. Dry surface regime will generally
preclude any fog concerns for tonight, and lows are expected to be
cool once again, generally in the low to mid 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Sunday and Sunday night: Dry weather expected to continue on
Sunday with broad northwesterly flow over the forecast area as
shortwave energy moves off the Mid-Atlantic coast. Atmosphere
remains relatively dry with PWATs around 0.5-0.7 inches and
forecast soundings showing dry deep dry layers above the surface
and in the mid levels. Expect plenty of sunshine with slightly
warmer temperatures in the lower 80s with surface high pressure
over the region. Lows Sunday night should again be near to
slightly below normal in the 50s.

Monday and Monday night: 500mb flow shifts more southwesterly
on Monday with surface high shifting offshore allowing for a
southerly flow to develop which will aid in moisture return into
the forecast area. PWATs forecast to rise significantly through
the day up to around 1.5 inches by 00z Tuesday (~120% of
normal). This increased moisture combined with increasing
isentropic lift and some possible weak shortwave energy should
lead to increasing pops late Monday through Monday night as
surface low pressure develops in the Plains and moves into the
Mississippi Valley by Tuesday morning. Temperatures on Monday
will be limited by increasing cloud cover and highs should range
from the upper 70s to lower 80s. Clouds and rain will result in
warmer overnight lows Monday night as well with lows expected
in the lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Little overall change in the thinking for the extended forecast
period. LREF ensembles and operational guidance continue to
show a closed upper low over the MS Valley transitioning to an
open wave as it shifts eastward on Tuesday. Strong moisture
advection on deep southwesterly flow support PWATs rising to
around 160-180% of normal with values approaching 1.7-1.8 inches
by Tuesday afternoon. The strongest upper forcing and
isentropic lift should occur during the afternoon Tuesday and
have the highest pops during this period. There remains
uncertainty as to how much instability will be available to
support strong to severe weather but thunderstorms are expected.
There is the possibility of Gulf Coast convection impacting the
moisture transport northward into the area which could impact
the rain totals in our area.

Guidance is a bit quicker shifting convection out of the
forecast area Tuesday night but rain chances will persist into
Wednesday as the upper trough axis moves over the forecast area.
There should be break in the activity Wed night into Thursday
but another fast moving shortwave should approach the region
late Thursday into Friday bringing another round of showers and
possible thunderstorms to the region for the end of the week.
Temperatures through the week are expected to exhibit a warming
trend after Tuesday with highs generally in the 80s and lows in
the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through the TAF period.

Mostly clear skies with some fair weather cumulus at 5-7k ft MSL
during this afternoon which will diminish overnight. SFC winds north
to northeast between 5 and 10 kts shift to more westerly after about
11/18z. Winds then decrease to light and variable overnight into
Sunday morning. Dry conditions and a low level jet should hinder any
fog development overnight.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Showers and thunderstorms and
associated restrictions are possible late Monday through
Wednesday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$