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000
FXUS61 KCLE 232320
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
720 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will track east to the north of Lake Erie through
Wednesday morning, pushing a cold front east across the region
tonight into early Wednesday. High pressure will build over the
area by Wednesday night and continue to influence the weather
through Friday before drifting east off the New England
coastline. A warm front will lift across the local area Friday
night into Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
720 PM...Pre-frontal trough continues east across the area this
evening with the main cold front just now approaching the
vicinity of Lake Michigan. There continues to be bursts of
heavier rain showers across the area, but overall, the activity
remains fairly light given the dry low-level air in place. Some
thunderstorms have developed upstream across portions of central
MI, though anticipate a weakening trend over the next several
hours with the loss of diurnal heating.

Previous Discussion...
Showers are moving east across the area with a pre-frontal
trough, however the lower levels have been quite slow to
saturate so precip has largely been virga or very light at the
onset. The column should continue to saturate through this
evening and it will rain at all locations at some point this
evening/tonight, especially as the upper trough axis approaches
from the west. The trough axis and surface cold front will cross
the CWA overnight before exiting to the east Wednesday morning.
Cold air advection will develop behind the front and persistent
upper troughing will result in continued light rain/drizzle
chances across the snowbelt region through Wednesday morning and
possibly into the early afternoon. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph
in addition to cooler temperatures in the upper 40s to around 50
degrees will result in chilly apparent temperatures in the 30s
for most of Wednesday.

Surface high pressure begins to build in from the northwest
Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening and should see a
gradual decrease in cloud cover from north to south Wednesday
evening into Wednesday night. There is still potential for
widespread sub-freezing overnight lows late Wednesday night into
Thursday morning and the latest forecast has minimum temps in
the in the upper 20s to lower 30s across the majority of the
area Wednesday night. A Freeze Watch has been issued for the
entire area from Midnight until 10 AM Thursday. With that being
said, there are a couple of areas of uncertainty: locations that
will be influenced by the warmer Lake Erie in addition to
southeastern zones. Locations along the immediate lakeshore will
likely remain just above freezing, but there`s some uncertainty
in how far south the warming effects of Lake Erie reach; this
could throw a wrench into the temperature forecast for lakeshore
zones, especially northern Ashtabula and Erie (PA) counties.
There is also a touch of uncertainty in the cloud cover forecast
for southeastern zones, roughly from Knox to Stark counties.
Any lingering mid-level clouds could result in a warmer low
temperature forecast due to less radiational cooling. Will
continue to monitor cloud cover and temperature trends over the
next 24 hours or so.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure controls the region Thursday into Friday with a
warming trend expected. The warm front lifts across the region
Friday night into Saturday morning with enough lift to generate
showers and maybe a few thunderstorms. High Thursday in the 50`s,
then warming into the 60`s on Friday. One last cool night Thursday
night with lows in the 30`s. Lows only dip into the mid 40`s to mid
50`s for Friday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The warm front should be northeast of the region at some point
Saturday morning with the entire region remaining in the warm
sector through Monday evening. So expect to see well above average
temperatures through the long term period. It does become a bit
cooler on Tuesday as a cold front moves eastward across the CWA.

Chances for showers and thunderstorms over the weekend look to be on
a downward trend Saturday afternoon through Monday morning. Thinking
is that a slight increase in the upper level ridge will be enough to
at least limit the coverage of any thunderstorms that can develop
across the area. Thunderstorm chances increase Monday afternoon into
Tuesday as a cold front moves west to east across the region. There
is uncertainty on its timing as jet energy ejects out of the
Southern Plains. Stay tuned for some better timing on when stronger
thunderstorms will be possible.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Mainly VFR across the TAF sites this evening with deterioration
to widespread MVFR and IFR overnight and into Wednesday. TAFs
remain VFR for the most part except in pockets of heavier rain
where vsbys may briefly drop to MVFR. As the rain exits east of
the area through this evening, lower ceilings will arrive in the
wake of a cold front overnight and into Wednesday. The most
persistent IFR conditions will be found at MFD/ERI/CLE Wednesday
morning into perhaps the early afternoon. A brief period of IFR
will arrive at FDY/CAK/YNG with TOL teetering at 1 kft.

Winds are a mixed-bag across the region this evening, with winds
abruptly shifting towards the northwest behind the pre-frontal
trough, then returning towards the southwest behind the rain.
Eventually tonight, all winds will favor a northwest to
north direction behind a cold front, 10 to 15 knots with gusts
of 20 to 25 knots possible.

Outlook...Non-VFR may return in showers and thunderstorms
Friday afternoon through Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will decrease this evening across the lake as a cold front
sags toward the lake. The stronger southwesterly winds that are over
the western portion of the lake will drift toward the center of the
lake. So will go with the current timing of the small craft advisory
ending across the western basin at 4 pm. The central portion of the
small craft advisory will end at 6 pm. The cold front crosses the
lake overnight with northwest winds increasing in its wake. It
appears the winds increase enough to build waves on Wednesday so a
new small craft advisory may be needed sunrise to late afternoon.
High pressure then takes control of the region Thursday into Friday.
So expect easterly winds to become southerly Thursday night through
Friday night.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Freeze Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday
     morning for OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-
     089.
PA...Freeze Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday
     morning for PAZ001>003.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Maines
NEAR TERM...Kahn/Maines
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...Kahn
MARINE...MM