795
FXUS63 KDDC 110104
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
804 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Beneficial rainfall is expected Saturday night through Sunday,
  with amounts of near one half inch or greater expected.

- Some embedded thunder is expected Sunday, with some marginally
  severe hail and wind gusts possible.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 804 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

Infrared satellite imagery showed cumulus and midlevel clouds
decreasing rapidly with sunset this evening. A mostly clear sky
is expected through at least midnight, offering a good view of
the potential aurora. Midlevel clouds will begin increasing
across southwest zones, especially toward sunrise Saturday.
Winds will trend light and variable through sunrise as well,
with weak pressure gradients expected. Temperatures Saturday
morning will be several degrees milder than recently, in the
upper 40s and lower 50s.

Weak closed midlevel cyclone near Las Vegas, NV at 7 pm Friday,
is forecast to reach the Four Corners vicinity by 7 pm Saturday.
Modest forcing for ascent will gradually improve as this system
approaches, with an increasing/lowering mid level overcast
expected Saturday afternoon. Model guidance consensus shows the
leading edge of rain remaining west of US 83 through 7 pm, so
most of Saturday for most of SW KS will remain dry. Rain
coverage probabilities (pops) increase to the likely category
Saturday night, and the definite category (>80%) Sunday.
Confidence remains high that most locations will receive at
least 0.50 inch of beneficial rainfall through Sunday.
Temperatures will struggle to reach 70 adjacent to Colorado
Saturday, as clouds and eventually rain increase, ranging to the
lower 80s across the southeast zones.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 312 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

Dry conditions continue through tomorrow afternoon with a few high
clouds expected overnight tonight. Winds will become light overnight
then shift to the south tomorrow as lee troughing develops across
eastern Colorado. An upper level low will start to move out of
the Four Corners region tomorrow and eject a weak disturbance
across the High Plains. This will bring an increase in cloud
cover tomorrow afternoon with mostly cloudy skies expected
tomorrow night. Precipitation chances increase across far
western Kansas tomorrow evening then spread across the remainder
of the CWA tomorrow night. Probability of over a tenth of an
inch of rain by sunrise Sunday will be above 30 percent west of
Highway 283 with around 60 percent chance across far southwest
Kansas. As for temperatures, lows tonight will range from the
mid 40s across west central Kansas to low 50s across south
central Kansas. Highs tomorrow look to range from the low 70s
across far western Kansas where clouds may limit heating to low
80s across south central Kansas. Lows tomorrow night then look
to range from the upper 40s across far western Kansas to upper
50s across south central Kansas.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 312 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

The upper level low mentioned in the short term forecast will
continue to trek eastward and eject disturbances across the area
Sunday into Monday morning.  Mostly cloudy skies are expected
throughout the day Sunday with decreasing cloudiness from west to
east by Monday morning. Precipitation chances look to be the highest
Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. Probabilities of over a
quarter of an inch of rain will be highest Sunday
afternoon/evening with over a 70 percent chance east of Highway
83. An over 50 percent chance of probability of over a half of
an inch is found east of Highway 283. Instability with these
storms look to be fairly low during this event but a few strong
storms producing small hail or gusty winds can not be ruled out.


Dry conditions are then expected Monday night into Tuesday as a weak
upper level ridge sits above the Plains.  Mostly clear skies are
expected during this timeframe with winds from a southerly
direction. The remainder of the forecast looks more unsettled as
upper level troughing digs into the Rockies with weak shortwaves
ejecting into western Kansas. This will bring an increase in chances
of precipitation but doesn`t look to bring widespread leaving
some places dry. Highs during the long term forecast look to
reach into the 70s with the exception of Tuesday when 80s are
expected. Lows will generally range from the mid 40s to mid 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 430 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

VFR will continue through this TAF period. Excellent flying
weather is expected, with light winds less than 12 kts.
An increasing midlevel overcast is expected daylight Saturday.
Rain showers are expected to be approaching LBL/GCK near the end
of this TAF period, around 00z Sun, but kept this set of TAFs
dry for now.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Turner
SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Turner