Text Products for FWS Issued by DMX

Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42
000
FNUS73 KDMX 251109
FWSDMX

Spot Forecast for Hogenkamp...Butler County Conservation
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
609 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0700 CDT on April 25.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

An initial observation at ignition and a mid burn observation are required.

Please relay them to the National Weather Service for each prescribed burn.

.DISCUSSION...

Dry weather is generally expected until this evening when a warm
front lifting into the state brings widespread rain and non-severe
storms into Friday. Before the rain arrives, RH values are
expected to decrease into the low 30s by the afternoon, along
with winds turning breezy out of the southeast gusting to 25-30
mph. Some potential for fire weather concern exists over the
northeast given the lower end RHs and breezy winds, though overall
minimal as greenup continues to increase.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 65.
Min humidity........31 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 10 to 18 mph increasing to 20
                    to 22 mph in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......4600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 16 to 24 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (6300 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (91400 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
GFDI................1.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........51  45  39  33  42  37  34  33  24  21  25
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............43  47  50  54  58  60  64  64  65  65  64
RH..............65  61  58  54  47  42  37  35  33  31  31
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..10  12  15  17  18  20  22  22  22  22  22
20 FT wind gust.13  15  20  22  22  22  23  24  25  26  25
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.9 1.2 1.9 2.3 3.1 4.0 4.3 4.6 4.4 4.2
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
Transp wind spd.16  18  18  21  21  22  21  23  23  23  24
GFDI............0   0   0   1   1   1   2   2   2   2   2
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
SDspl kt-ft/10006   15  20  34  42  60  71  86  91  89  88

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers overnight. Chance of rain showers
                    after 3 am. Chance of thunderstorms after 3 am.
Min temperature.....Around 46.
Max humidity........71 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 16 to 24 mph. Gusts up to 33
                    mph increasing to 38 mph after 3 am. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms after
                    3 am.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 18 to 25 mph increasing to 28 to 29
                    mph after 3 am.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (85200 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (8700 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
GFDI................2.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........32     50     66     74     78     84
Weather cov.....                            S CHC  CHANCE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........                                   CHANCE
Temp............64     57     52     51     50     48
RH..............30     38     48     54     61     65
20 ft wind......SE 21  SE 17  SE 17  SE 20  SE 22  SE 23
20 ft wind gust.24     25     26     30     33     37
Mix hgt (ft)....4100   600    900    800    1000   1100
Transport wind..SE 24  SE 20  SE 20  SE 20  SE 24  SE 28
GFDI............2      1      1      1      1      1
Haines index....5      4      4      4      3      3
SDspl kt-ft/100085     10     15     14     21     26

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent). Showers and
                    thunderstorms likely early in the morning, then
                    showers and thunderstorms.
Max temperature.....Around 61.
Min humidity........76 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Breezy. Southeast winds 23 to 26 mph with gusts
                    to around 41 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......1800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 26 to 35 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (29000 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (53700 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
GFDI................1.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........94        98        93        94
Weather cov.....LIKELY    DEFNTE    DEFNTE    DEFNTE
Weather type....RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR
Tstm cov........LIKELY    DEFNTE    DEFNTE    DEFNTE
Temp............46        47        50        54
RH..............76        86        86        86
20 FT wind......SE 23G37  SE 25G39  SE 26G40  SE 25G39
Mix hgt (ft)....1300      1400      1500      1600
Transport wind..SE 26     SE 32     SE 32     SE 31
GFDI............1         1         1         1
Haines index....3         2         2         2
SDspl kt-ft/100029        40        41        45

$$
Forecaster...Bury
Requested by...Jacob Moore
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2412402.0/DMX
.DELDT 04/25/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL 16moorjaco@gmail.com
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
