Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FXUS63 KDVN 281945
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
245 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sat May 28 2016

SPC has a Slight risk for severe thunderstorms for the entire DVN
forecast area into this evening. A NNW to SSE broken line of
storms is ongoing and will continue to move to the NNE at 30-40
mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT Sat May 28 2016

Through this Evening...Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
affect a large portion of E Iowa/W Illinois. A few storms may
become strong to severe.

Thunderstorm Timing: Storms should occur through the late aftn and
early evening, exiting the NE forecast area by 6-7 PM CDT.

Thunderstorm Risks: Environmental parameters of 35 kt effective
shear, 1500-2000 J/kg SBCAPE, 900 J/kg DCAPE, and dry mid-levels
with a wet-bulb zero height of 9000 ft are supportive of isolated
wind gusts near 60 mph and hail up near quarter size with the
strongest storms. Additionally, an isolated tornado is possible.
Low-level shear is 10-15 kts (0-1 km) and 0-1 km SRH is close to
100 m2/s2. Uttech

.LONG TERM...(Sunday NIGHT THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT Sat May 28 2016

Tonight...Showers and storms diminish early. Lows will be in the
60s and sfc winds will be light.

Sunday and Sunday Night...Dry and warm for the majority of E Iowa/W
Illinois. Slight chance for an isolated shower or storm across
the northern third of the forecast area. Highs are forecast in the
80-85 F range. The slight shower chances also exist for the
overnight period for most of the CWA but coverage and probability
are very low.

Monday through Wednesday...Models have an active pattern
developing - especially by Tuesday and Wednesday - as a mid-level
shortwave/vorticity max slowly moves through the Central Plains. A
moist atmosphere will surge northward causing PWATS to spike to
1.50-1.75 inches. Weak mid-level winds would yield low deep layer
shear. Therefore, overall severe weather threat is low with
localized heavy rainfall becoming the most likely concern.

The best chances for widespread rain are Tuesday Night and
Wednesday ahead of a cold front.

Thursday through Saturday...High pressure builds into the Midwest
resulting in a much drier forecast, lower humidity, and cooler
temps in the lower to upper 70s. Uttech

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Sunday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT Sat May 28 2016

Broken line of thunderstorms expected this aftn. Brief periods of
IFR VSBYS (possibly CIGS) are likely with the strongest storms.
Also, there is potential for isolated wind gusts over 40 kts and
hail up to quarter size. General convection timing is between
19Z-22Z with any one terminal receiving TSRA for only an hour or
two in this window.

After the storms pass, a return to MVFR/VFR is anticipated.
Uttech

&&

.DVN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Uttech
SHORT TERM...Uttech
LONG TERM...Uttech
AVIATION...Uttech


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