Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FXUS63 KDVN 231527
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1027 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1023 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

TRENDS IN RADAR AND SATELLITE INDICATE THE DRY AIR IS STILL
WINNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA IS SUPPORTED BY A SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. THIS SUPPORT WILL SHIFT INTO WISCONSIN OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

THERE IS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH MISSOURI
WHICH MAY ALLOW NEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
AND EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.

OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOW LOOKING TO BE 0.10 INCH OR LESS
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE NORTHWEST QUARTER OF THE AREA WILL
LIKELY END UP WITH RAINFALL JUST UNDER ONE QUARTER INCH.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 735 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

MORNING UPDATE TO REFINE POPS. ADJUSTED POPS DOWNWARD A BIT ACROSS
THE SOUTH...AS RECENT RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT MESOSCALE MODEL TRENDS
OF HIGHER RAIN COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. ALSO DELAYED
THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE HIGHER POPS SLIGHTLY.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

AT 3 AM CDT...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WAS
LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA. CLOUDS WERE INCREASING ACROSS EASTERN
IOWA WHERE EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY IN THE 40S. LESS
CLOUD COVER AND FEWER CLOUDS IN WESTERN ILLINOIS RESULTED IN
READINGS MAINLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

FORECAST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD INCLUDE RAIN COVERAGE AND
AMOUNTS TODAY...AND POTENTIAL FOR FOG/STRATUS/DRIZZLE TONIGHT.

IN THE NEAR TERM...AN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST ACROSS IOWA AND SHOULD REACH
THE EXTREME NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 09Z. DUE
TO THE PERSISTENT ISOLATED THUNDER...WILL MENTION IN THE FORECAST
GRIDS ACROSS EASTERN IOWA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND MONITOR
TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE INCLUSION AFTER 12Z. RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND A
QUARTER INCH STILL SEEM REASONABLE...FROM MANCHESTER AND
INDEPENDENCE...THROUGH THE VINTON AND CEDAR RAPIDS AREAS. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO THE EAST AS THE LINE WEAKENS
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH A FEW HUNDREDTHS UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI. HAVE FAVORED THE COOLER END OF GUIDANCE
FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS. MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 50S. NOT
EXPECTING THE CLEARING TO ARRIVE IN THE WEST SOON ENOUGH THIS
AFTERNOON TO BOOST TEMPS SIGNIFICANTLY. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF LATE
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST ILLINOIS.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT SOME PARTIAL CLEARING WITH A LIGHT OR CALM
WIND. FOG DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY EASTERN
IOWA WHERE THE HIGHEST RAINFALL IS FORECAST. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS ALSO
INDICATING SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS/DRIZZLE IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. THE 06Z RUN IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND WILL NOT HIGHLIGHT IN FORECAST YET. WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT...ALTHOUGH QUESTIONS
LINGER ABOUT HOW WIDESPREAD IT WOULD BE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HAVE RAISED AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO
THE LOWER 70S ACROSS OUR SW HALF AS LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF MN PULLS
WARMER AIR NORTHWARD. HAVE LEFT OUT THE MENTION OF RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT
IN OUR NORTH BUT THE NAM HAS SUGGESTED SOME SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE AS
A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD INTO THE CWA. THIS FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT SWITCHING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE CWA AND WE
WILL BE IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SO TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS
WARM AS EARLIER ADVERTISED. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S NORTH TO
LOWER 70S SOUTH ON SATURDAY...BUT ONLY IN THE 60S ON SUNDAY.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...CHANGES TAKE PLACE AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE PLAINS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
IN OUR FAR NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE ALONG A STRONG WARM
FRONT AND ON THE NOSE OF A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET. BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS ON MONDAY SHOULD PULL THE PROMISED WARM AIR INTO THE
CWA WITH HIGHS SOARING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS.

THE ECMWF HAS NOW COME AROUND TO THE GFS/GEM IN SHOWING A MORE
PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM RATHER THAN A CLOSED LOW. EXCELLENT MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF COMBINES WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT FROM A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A STRONG COLD FRONT. THIS SHOULD
PUSH A SWATH OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE CWA SOMETIME MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY. COLDER AND
DRIER AIR SWEEPS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 735 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

12Z TAFS UPDATED TO REFINE TIMING OF EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY...GENERALLY AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER THAN
PREVIOUS TAFS. EXPECT MAINLY LOW VFR CIGS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
FOG FAVORED TONIGHT ACROSS AREAS THAT RECEIVE THE MOST RAIN AND
HAVE THE LEAST CLOUD COVER. LOWERED KCID/KDBQ TO 1SM VSBY
OVERNIGHT...2SM AT KMLI/KBRL. SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT AS WELL.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...RP KINNEY






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