Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 270439
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1139 PM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016

...06z AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 247 PM CDT Tue Jul 26 2016

18Z surface data has high pressure from the Mid-Mississippi Valley
into the Ohio Valley. Dew points were in the 60s from the Great
Lakes into the central Plains with 70s from the Ohio Valley into the
southern Plains and then down to the Gulf Coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT Tue Jul 26 2016

Quiet and dry conditions will be seen across the area late this
afternoon and through Wednesday morning as high pressure moves into
the Ohio Valley. Light winds and clear skies should again allow
patchy fog to develop late tonight and continue through sunrise
Wednesday.

Mainly dry condition will continue Wednesday afternoon as the next
storm system approaches the area. Far northwest Buchanan county
MIGHT see some isolated showers and thunderstorms late Wednesday
afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT Tue Jul 26 2016

Main forecast concern for the long term are the chances for rain and
thunderstorms Thursday as a low slides across the area, dragging
with it a cold front.  After this, flow off of Lake Michigan will
lead to cooler temperatures for the weekend and a quiet weekend.

For Thursday, a shortwave trough and wave at H5 runs across the
baroclinic zone across the central US.  This will lead to the
development of a low in the models.  This low moves across the CWA
on Thursday, dragging with it a cold front.  Showers and
thunderstorms are possible along this front.  At this time, there
are differences between the solutions in where the precip occurs. As
a result of this difference, have maintained high end chc pops for
the area.  Beginning of the CAM guidance suggests a broken line of
convection Wed PM into Thu AM.  Regardless, it looks though Thursday
will be wet across the area.

As previously mentioned, a back door cold front will slide in from
the Great Lakes.  This will lead to temperatures well below normal
across the CWA the end of this week and into the weekend.  Agree
with the consensus that the ECMWF maintains mostly dry conditions
for the area.  The blend has spit out low end chc to schc pops
associated with the convergence on the lake induced cold front. No
sig changes to the extended were made.  It looks like this weekend
will be beautiful.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CDT Tue Jul 26 2016

Near calm winds and mainly clear skies along with a strengthening
low level inversion should foster at least patchy fog development
toward daybreak. Expect mvfr conditions with any fog, with a
possibility of ifr/lifr/vlifr conditions. Outside of any fog,
anticipate vfr conditions. Some shower and storm chances will exist
by Wednesday afternoon through evening ahead of a cold front, but
opted to leave out mention for now with low confidence on occurring
at a terminal and also being later in the taf period.

&&

.DVN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...Gibbs
AVIATION...McClure



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