Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FXUS63 KDVN 012030
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
330 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AN 850MB HIGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON
SHOWS LOW CLOUDS FROM MISSOURI INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF ILLINOIS
WITH SOME CLOUDS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST WITH 50S FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

QUIET AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL AVERAGE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THE DVN CWA WILL LOOK TO REMAIN DRY
TUE NIGHT...AS MCS GENERATION PARAMETERS COME TOGETHER IN THE FACE OF
ORGANIZING SOUTHWESTERLIES AND LLVL MOISTURE ADVECTION ACRS MUCH OF
THE REACH OF THE PLAINS AS WELL AS INTO THE MO RVR VALLEY/MN. CIRRUS
DEBRIS BLOW OFF AND SOME LIGHT SOUTHEAST SFC RETURN MAY HELP KEEP
LOW TEMPS IN THE 50S TUE NIGHT ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MS RVR...BUT
ANY DURATION OF CLEAR EAST OF THE RVR WILL FOSTER SOME LOWS IN THE
40S. ON WED MCS FORCING AND CONVERGENT THTA-E RICH LLVL FLOW RE-
FOCUS BACK ACRS NEB/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO SOUTHWESTERN MN LATE IN THE
DAY. STILL FEEL WED WILL BE MAINLY DRY UNTIL 00Z THU THANKS TO
LINGERING LLVL HIGH PRESSURE LOBE AS WELL AS SOME LINGERING RIDGING
ALOFT...BUT WILL KEEP LOW CHC POPS IN THE FAR WEST FOR THE POTENTIAL
OF REMNANT DECAYING SHOWERS/STORMS BLEEDING IN FROM CENTRAL IA.
DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF DEBRIS/CLOUD COVER WED HIGHS WILL APPROACH
THE UPPER 70S OR AROUND 80. CURRENTLY PROGGED MCS SUPPORT TOOLS
SUGGEST THE MAIN MCS WED NIGHT WILL OCCUR ACRS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO WESTERN IA...WITH SECONDARY CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS ACRS THE HIGH
PLAINS. BUT SEVERAL 12Z RUN MODELS ALSO SUGGEST A LEAD RIDGE-RIDING
VORT MAX TO ROLL EAST-SOUTHEAST AROUND THE UPSTREAM UPPER RIDGE AXIS
AND DROP ACRS THE DVN CWA LATER WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. THUS A
CHANCE FOR SOME MORE SCTRD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO MOVE ACRS THE LOCAL
AREA AT THIS TIME...BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING SUBSTANTIAL LOOKING
AT VEERING AND WEAKENING LLJ AND ELEVATED CONVERGENT THTA-E FEED
LATER WED NIGHT WITH THE PASSING WAVE.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THU MAY BE ANOTHER DAY CHARACTERIZED BY
WEAKENING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST...AND SOME DECAY
TO ALLOW FOR AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE TO HELP SFC TEMPS TO WARM
BACK CLOSE TO 80. MREF PLACEMENT OF THE MAIN WSW-ENE ORIENTED LLVL
BOUNDARY ALONG FROM NORTHWEST KS...INTO SOUTHWEST/SOUTHERN IA BY THU
EVENING COULD BE A FOCUS FOR THE NEXT ROUND OF NOCTURNAL LLJ
IMPINGEMENT...AND CLOSER UPSTREAM PLACEMENT MAY ALLOW FOR MORE OF
STRONGER MCS TO MOVE ACRS THE CWA FROM THE WESTERN IA/MO RVR VALLEY
EVENING GENERATION POINT OVERNIGHT. THE 12Z ECMWF EVEN DEVELOPS A
MCV WHICH SUPPORTS A MATURE MCS TO PROPAGATE ACRS THE CWA LATE THU
NIGHT WITH HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE MARGINAL SVR STORMS ON IT/S
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN FRINGES. THE GFS SUGGESTS A WEAKENING MCS OR
STORMS CLUSTER LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING AND A FURTHER NORTH
FOCUS OF STRONGER FORCING ACRS THE NORTH HALF OF IA/SOUTHERN MN. FOR
NOW WITH MODEL DISCREPANCIES...WILL MAINTAIN HIGH CHC POPS. WHAT
HAPPENS THU NIGHT INTO FRI AM...WILL AFFECT THE REST OF THE DAY FRI.
EITHER A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BLOW THRU FRI MORNING AND
THEN IT/S OUTFLOW REMNANTS OR MAIN COOL FRONT ITSELF GET LAID OUT
WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR A DRY/COOLER LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT NORTH
OF IT ACRS THE LOCAL AREA. OR WEAKENING REMNANTS MAY STALL ACRS THE
CWA FRI AM AND BE THE FOCUS OF POSSIBLE NEW DEVELOPMENT FRI AFTERNOON
AND EVENING LIKE THE 12Z GFS SUGGESTS WILL HAPPEN. CHC POPS WILL
HAVE TO BE CARRIED THRU FRI...BUT START TO BE MIGRATED TO THE SOUTH
LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. FRI HIGHS A REAL CHALLENGE AND
PROBABLY FCST TO BE TOO HIGH IF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS HOLDS ON TOUGH OR
AN EARLIER COOL PUSH OFF RE-ENFORCING GRT LKS HIGH PRESSURE OCCURS.

SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...SAT COULD BE MAINLY DRY WITH
INFLUENCE OF ANOTHER GRT LKS ANTICYCLONE AND LLVL NORTHEAST
FLOW/FETCH. BUT SEVERAL OF THE MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS CONTINUE
TO PICK UP ON ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE ROLLING ACRS SOUTHERN CANADA THAT
WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER COOL CORE L/W TROFF DEVELOPMENT ACTS THE GRT LKS
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT/S JUST TIMING THE FROPA OFF THIS FEATURE THRU
THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE NEXT MAIN PRECIP WINDOW...BOTH THE 12Z GFS
AND EURO SUGGEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING AND COMBINED WITH PRE-
FRONTAL AFTERNOON HEATING...MAY FUEL SOME STRONGER STORM DEVELOPMENT
IN OR NEAR THE LOCAL AREA. AGAIN TIMING WILL BE EVERYTHING AND THERE
IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS PROCESS.    ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH 00Z/03 AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...08


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