Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FXUS63 KDVN 131950
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
250 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014


.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

LARGE AND SEASONABLY QUITE COOL EARLY FALL HIGH PRESSURE KEEPING
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S WITH LIGHT WINDS AND JUST
ISOLATED CUMULUS CLOUDS. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS NEXT SHORT WAVE
TO IMPACT REGION IS STILL 48 HOURS AWAY AND JUST ENTERING NW CONUS
WITH LIMITED MOISTURE SUGGESTING LIGHT RAIN AMOUNTS...IF ANY. LOTS
OF SW MONSOON MOISTURE WITH NEXT TROPICAL SYSTEM OFF MEXICO MAY
MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD AREA AGAIN...SIMILAR TO LAST EVENT...IN A WEEK
OR SO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...ABOVE AVERAGE TO WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE OR GOOD TO EXCELLENT. LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. STRONG VERIFICATION OF PERSISTENCE
AND LOCAL TOOLS SUGGEST TEMPERATURES PROGGED PER LOCAL TOOLS SHOULD
BE WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO FOR MOST AREAS NEXT 24 HOURS.

TONIGHT...FAIR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS TO ALLOW FOR BL DECOUPLING
WITH PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE TOWARD MORNING IN LOW LYING PLACES. MINS PER
LOCAL TOOLS HAVE LOWERED 1 TO 2 DEGREES WITH SOME PLACES POSSIBLY STILL
A DEGREE OR SO STILL TOO MILD. LOWS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO BREAKING OR
TYING LOW RECORDS AT BRL/MLI.

SUNDAY...ANOTHER FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL DAY WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS
AND FEW/SCT COVERAGE OF FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS MID DAY. HIGHS
WITH SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH AND MODIFICATION SHOULD BE MOSTLY
IN THE MIDDLE 60S WITH SOME UPPER 60S SW SECTIONS. THESE TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE 10 DEGREES OR SO COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR MID SEPTEMBER.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...
FORECAST FOCUS ON THE NEXT RAIN EVENT ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A MAINLY
DRY EXTENDED...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW NORMAL.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. MODERATE TO
STRONG VERTICAL MOTION IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS WHICH WILL SQUEEZE
OUT THE INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER. HAVE RAISED POPS INTO THE
LIKELY CATEGORY WITH ROOM TO RAISE THEM EVEN FURTHER. THE RAIN
SHOULD ARRIVE INTO EASTERN IA WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT THEN
SPREAD OVER ALL THE CWA MONDAY MORNING. I WILL WALK OUT THE RAIN IN
OUR EASTERN CWA SOMETIME MONDAY EVENING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD
RANGE FROM ABOUT 0.15 INCH IN THE NORTH...AROUND 2 TENTHS ALONG THE
I-80 CORRIDOR AND UP TO 1/2 INCH IN THE SOUTH.

TEMPERATURES ARE PROBLEMATIC ON MONDAY WITH AN ALL-DAY RAIN OVER
MOST OF THE CWA WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES OF +6 TO 10C OVER THE CWA.
WHILE GUIDANCE INDICATES HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S THIS SEEMS
TOO WARM BASED ON LOCAL TECHNIQUES...AND HAVE LOWERED READINGS TO
NEAR 60. THIS STILL MAY BE TOO WARM AND HIGHS IN THE 50S MAY BE MORE
REASONABLE WHERE THE RAIN PERSISTS ALL DAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL WITH A
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME FRAME. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD MODERATE DURING THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TUESDAY
WARMING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S THURSDAY.

FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...LOW CONFIDENCE AS ECMWF BRINGS A ZONAL
FLOW INTO THE MIDWEST WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THE
EDGE OF A BUILDING HEAT DOME IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE GFS REMAINS
DRY WITH A SHARPENING TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

A SEASONABLY COOL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVERHEAD WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS
WITH FAIR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE EAST SUNDAY ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE
TO AROUND 5 KTS MID MORNING SUNDAY AM.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

RECORD LOWS FOR SEPTEMBER 14...

MOLINE.........39 IN 1974
CEDAR RAPIDS...36 IN 1929
DUBUQUE........34 IN 1974
BURLINGTON.....38 IN 1974

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NICHOLS
SHORT TERM...NICHOLS
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...NICHOLS
CLIMATE...NICHOLS





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