Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FXUS63 KDVN 200421
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1121 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

SCT-BKN CUMULUS CLOUDS WERE ACROSS THE DVN CWA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
2 PM TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

FORECAST FOCUS ON WARMER TEMPERATURES.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION IN THE SHORT TERM.
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL ALLOW FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER. DEWPOINTS
WILL ALSO BE CREEPING UPWARD THROUGH SUNDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S. DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE RISING INTO THE MID 60S SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

HAZY HOT AND HUMID EARLY NEXT WEEK

A LONG WAVE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE ROCKIES WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST BRINGING THE HOTTEST AIR OF THE SUMMER TO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
BY 00Z TUESDAY THE MODELS SHOW A 595 DECAMETER HIGH CENTERED OVER
THE SOUTHWEST WITH 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES IN THE +20 TO +25
DEGREES CELSIUS OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS THIS HOTTER
AIR MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
INTO THE MID 80S ON MONDAY AND INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S BY TUESDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 70S MAKING FOR MUGGY CONDITIONS.

SOUTHERLY WINDS OUT OT THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. DEW POINTS WILL BE THE 60S ON MONDAY AND RISE INTO THE 70S
BY TUESDAY. THESE HIGH DEW POINTS COMBINED WITH THE HOTTEST
TEMPERATURES OF THIS SUMMER WILL RAISE HEAT INDEX VALUES INTO THE
UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL HIGH...POSSIBLY UP TO 2
INCHES...WHICH COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN STORMS. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE WHEN THE BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA.

ON WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL LOWER AS COOLER AND
DRIER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM CANADA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL RANGE IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND
LOWER 80S TO THE SOUTH. THE PLEASANT WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND SURFACE WINDS AGAIN TURN TO THE
SOUTH. ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK
BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

ANOTHER 24 PLUS HOURS OF QUIET...VFR WEATHER WILL BE EXPECTED AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION. AFTER A CLEAR
NIGHT WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR SURFACE
FOG...WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTH AROUND 8 KTS WHILE WE FORM MORE
AFTERNOON FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS. OTHERWISE...CIRRUS AND SOME
HIGH LEVEL SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO BE FOUND ABOVE 25000 FT.
ERVIN

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...KUHL
AVIATION...ERVIN





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