Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FXUS63 KDVN 220450
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1150 PM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 318 PM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

Filtered sunshine has slowly, oh so slowly, heated our atmosphere up
to the lower to upper 50s as of 2 PM today, as northeast winds
provide some slight cold advection. The low level air is very dry,
with dewpoints in the 30s over our region. This low level dry fetch
will keep our forecast confidently dry through the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

Tonight, thin cirrus will continue to spread over the area through
the night, with the north seeing the most clear conditions. This far
northeast has a slight chance of seeing patchy frost toward morning.
Like last night, a nearly 10 mph wind may make that impossible, but
we are close enough to keep it in the grids for now. Lows tonight
under the thin cirrus and northeast breeze will be mainly in the
upper 30s to lower 40s.

By morning, the cirrus should begin to move out from north to south,
and this will leave skies mainly sunny for Saturday. The northeast
flow continues, but like western WI this afternoon, lower 60s are
definitely attainable with nearly full sunshine. Winds of 10 to 15
south may put a bit of chill into the air, but otherwise this is a
very pleasant spring day in the lower to mid 60s.
ERVIN

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

Dry and quiet conditions will be the rule through the weekend with
temperatures trending near late April normals. An amplifying upper
level pattern toward the end of next week will favor warmer and more
stormy weather by next weekend.

High pressure migrating south through the area Saturday night into
Sunday will provide mostly clear skies and light winds. Dry air at
the surface and clear skies under subsidence should again lead to
lows in the 30s as seen this morning across the north and northeast
and predicted by MOS guidance. However unlike this morning, winds
will be light and skies mostly clear, possibly setting the stage for
patchy frost, especially across the far north and east for
consideration in later forecasts. Full sunshine and light winds
turning southwesterly should lead to highs in the upper 60s to
around 70.

A weak frontal system pushes through on Tuesday for scattered
showers with enough instability for at least isolated thunderstorm
coverage. This cools highs back to the 60s in most areas Tuesday,
after another day in the upper 60s to lower 70s Monday. Low
confidence, low pops are mentioned for Wed with a possible wave
along the boundary to the southeast, otherwise the focus turns to a
developing upper level trough out west late in the week that sends a
wave of low pressure northeast through the central plains and upper
midwest Thu and Fri with possibly another one following on its heals
next weekend. There continues to be little agreement on models with
the details in this more active pattern and for now the blended
approach will advertise chances for showers and thunderstorms Thu
and Fri with near to above normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

High clouds will be common across the area through the TAF period
with VFR conditions.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 322 PM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

High water levels from recent rainfall continues to make its way
through area rivers. Most tributary rivers are on the downward
trend and well below flood stage. The Mississippi continues to
slowly rise at most sites due to routed flow from upstream and the
contribution from the local tributaries rivers. Flood warnings
continue for minor flooding at Gladstone and Burlington for
roughly the next week. At Keithsburg, the latest forecast has it
just touching flood stage in roughly 6 days, which has been
trended downward from the past several forecast runs that were
well into minor flooding with an earlier onset. Thus, a flood
watch continues for this site with current river forecast trends,
and no contribution from rainfall over the next 4 days, lending
low confidence that the river will reach flood stage.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Ervin
SHORT TERM...Ervin
LONG TERM...Sheets
AVIATION...RP Kinney
HYDROLOGY...Sheets


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