Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 160427
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1127 PM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 251 PM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

Cold front continues exiting off to our east currently passing
through the Ohio Valley, as low pressure deepens over Ontario.
Stratus blankets much of the area this afternoon, as moisture
wraps down in post-frontal cyclonic flow. Some clearing though
is beginning to make inroads into CWA from central IA ahead of
high pressure. Overall, high pressure will be the dominant
weather feature over the next 24 hrs providing diminishing winds
along with drier and seasonably cool conditions. This cooler
weather will be short-lived as the flow pattern aloft is shown
to flatten allowing for a return to above normal temps as the
week progresses.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

Tranquil conditions are on tap through the period, as a ridge
of surface high pressure builds in providing light winds and a
return of mainly clear skies. 850 mb temps and inversion
strength coupled with verification of upstream lows this AM
all supportive of widespread mid/upper 30s for lows tonight.
Patchy frost is possible late tonight, although light westerly
winds likely enough to limit coverage to mainly river valleys
and other sheltered areas. Monday will bring a pleasant mid-
October day. Temps should rebound to close to normal and
generally in the range of 60-65 degrees under full sunshine and
light westerly winds.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

Quiet weather in the long term is the main story.  Overall flow
favors seasonal weather with little to no chances of precip until
the end of the period.  Models are in good agreement on momentum
fields through the end of the period.  Towards next weekend, timing
differences between different models leads to lower confidence on
the timing of the next chance for precip.

Slight warming trend from the 60s to 70s occurs through the period.
Dewpoints will struggle to make it to the 50s by next weekend.
As a result, beautiful fall weather is expected through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

The next 24 hours will see more VFR weather with light west to
southwest winds and clear skies as high pressure moves over the
region.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...McClure
SHORT TERM...McClure
LONG TERM...Gibbs
AVIATION...Ervin



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