Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 230443
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1143 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

...06z AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 325 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

Mid/high level clouds were beginning to increase across the dvn
cwa as warm air advection was kicking in, on the return flow of
Canadian high pressure pushing eastward into Lower Michigan.

3 pm temperatures ranged from the mid 30s to the mid 40s.

A warm front extended along the foothills of the Rockies into
northern TX with temperatures south of the front in the 80s to
lower 90s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

Forecast focus on chance of precipitation late tonight and
Thursday.

Tonight: Mid/high level clouds will continue to thicken as
warm air advection and moisture continues to increase on a
strengthening low level jet in the central/southern Plains.
Late tonight, there should be enough low level saturation to bring
in a small chance of pops in our far southwest cwa. There may be
a brief period of light snow or sleet at the onset of the
precipitation before it changes quickly to rain. Temperatures look
to be above freezing to eliminate any freezing rain. Forecast
soundings also indicate mid layer MUCAPES of 400-500 J/KG on the
convergent nose of the southwesterly 30-40 knot LLJ. Have also
maintained the idea of elevated isolated thunderstorms. Minimum
temperatures will range from the upper 20s at Freeport, IL to the
mid 30s in our sw cwa.

Thursday: Warm air advection precipitation will continue to lift
to the northeast over the cwa with a brief period of sleet and
rain in the morning at the onset of the precipitation. Isolated
thunderstorms will also spread to the northeast as a corridor of
instability lifts across the cwa. MUCAPES increase to 600-700
J/KG as the day progresses, but this is after the better forcing
shifts to the northeast. During the afternoon, scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms can be expected, with a diminishing
trend in our south as a warm front approaches the cwa from the
south, and the better forcing shifts northward. There should be
quite a temperature contrast with highs ranging from the mid 40s
along Highway 20 to the lower 60s at Memphis, MO where some
sunshine should be seen later in the day.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

An active weather pattern will be seen for the next seven days and
likely through the end of the month with numerous storm systems.
traversing the Midwest. Some of the extratropical cyclones that
develop across the CONUS will have the potential to be strong.

Although the weather pattern will be active, there will be periods
of dry weather.

Thursday night the better forcing along with the front moves north
of the area. The increasingly moist air should allow light rain to
be seen generally north of highway 30.

Mainly dry conditions are expected across the area Friday morning
while the next storm system moves out of the Plains. By Friday
afternoon scattered showers along with some thunderstorms are
expected to develop with the better coverage west of the
Mississippi. Temperatures look to be well above normal.

Friday night and Saturday the model consensus has likely to
categorical pops. While the models disagree on the overall track and
details, it is starting to look like a general rain event with some
embedded thunderstorms. Temperatures should generally average above
normal.

Saturday night on...

While the weather pattern is projected to remain very active, the
models continue to vary considerably from run to run on the overall
track and details regarding each storm system.

Saturday night into Sunday...the model consensus has chance to
likely pops and for Saturday night and slight chance to chance pops
for Sunday with the next system moving through the Midwest. The
model solutions are still diverging on their respective solutions
regarding where the storm will track. Right now the precipitation
type looks to be all rain along with some embedded thunderstorms.

Sunday night the model consensus has mainly dry conditions for the
area as it appears there will be a lull in activity while the next
storm system organizes in the Plains.

The model consensus has slight chance to chance pops for Monday and
Monday night for the next storm system moving through the Midwest.
Right now the precipitation type looks to be rain.

On Tuesday, the model consensus has dry conditions for the area as
another lull in storm activity occurs.

Tuesday night/Wednesday the model consensus has slight chance to
chance pops for the entire area as the next storm system moves
through the Midwest.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

Mainly vfr conditions and gusty e/se winds 10-20+ kts to dominate
much of the taf cycle. Increasing moisture ahead of a northward
lifting warm front will provide at least scattered showers from
south to north by mid morning through afternoon, and have
continued to handle with vcsh mention. Increasing elevated
instability may also lead to isolated storms, especially during
the afternoon along/n of I-80. The stronger showers and any
storms will be accompanied by brief periods of mvfr visibilities,
and anticipate period of higher mvfr cigs ahead of warm front
most favored along/n of I-80 during afternoon into evening.
Potential for low level wind shear exists Thursday night but
have left out mention being that far out in taf cycle and also
lower confidence due to potential to stay with gusty surface
winds.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Haase
SHORT TERM...Haase
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...McClure



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