Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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287
FXUS63 KDVN 101539
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
939 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2017

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 320 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2017

Continued northwest flow across the upper midwest with southwest winds
currently ahead of next weak front passing mid day. Temperatures are
already rising into the low/mid 20s. Jet structure suggests more vigorous
wave to pass later tonight with most to all light precipitation likely
to northeast of the area or mostly northeast of the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2017

Short term forecast confidence assessment...fair or average with again
main issues highs probably a few degrees too low and coverage of clouds
today with intervals of sunny to partly cloudy conditions and risk
of a few flurries or flakes of snow.

Today...mostly sunny to partly sunny with temperatures mid 30s northeast
to lower 40s southwest. Based on persistence, some locations highs
may still be a few degrees too low. Isolated flurries may be possible
also for later shifts in PM hours with heating. Northwest winds to
arrive late AM with gusts to over 20 mph possible.

Tonight...clouds to increase, especially over the northeast with low
POPS far northeast possible. Lows should be in the lower 20s northeast
sections to upper 20s southwest. Any light snow will see little no
accumulation in far NE portions of forecast area. Mins in NE may
be with clouds a few degrees too cool.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2017

The active northwest flow pattern continues. Flurries are possible
with any of the numerous weak systems passing through in the flow
aloft.

Storm system will move into the Great Lakes on Monday and into the
Ohio Valley Monday evening. The better forcing is across Wisconsin
but a secondary area of weaker forcing will move across the northern
half of the area during the afternoon.

Thus light snow/flurries should be seen across the northeast half of
the area during the morning that becomes more of a mix during the
afternoon. Monday evening, lingering flurries should be seen in the
far east areas as the weaker forcing exits the area.

Overall accumulations should be on the order of a dusting. A
possible exception is northeast Stephenson county where
accumulations of just over one half inch are possible.

Dry conditions will then be seen late Monday night and Tuesday as
high pressure quickly moves through the Midwest.

A potentially bigger concern Monday into Tuesday will be the wind.
Windy conditions are expected behind the departing system,
especially Monday afternoon and evening where winds could gust over
30 mph.

Late Tuesday night the next system will begin approaching the area.
As the overall forcing increases, it may be enough to generate some
flurries.

Wednesday on...

On Wednesday the next system quickly moves through the Midwest. The
models have not been consistent on the track of this system. As a
result, the model consensus has slight chance to low chance pops for
light snow that may turn to a mix across the far south. The system
is working with limited moisture so any accumulations would be light.

Late Wednesday night into Thursday the next disturbance will move
through the area in the fast northwest flow aloft. Moisture is
extremely limited with this system but there appears to be a chance
of some flurries and maybe light snow. However, the models have been
inconsistent on the track. Thus the model consensus has slight
chance to low chance pops east of the Mississippi and generally
along/north of I-80.

Thursday night through Friday night the model consensus has mainly
dry conditions for the area. There is another weak disturbance that
will move into the Great Lakes on Friday that may or may not be
capable of generating some flurries.

Next weekend, there will be two more systems that will move through
the Midwest. Model consistency has been quite poor regarding the
overall track of each system. It does appear that the
Saturday/Saturday night system may have a better chance of impacting
the area. Right now the model consensus has slight chance to low
chance pops for rain changing to snow for the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
ISSUED AT 938 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2017

A deck of MVFR clouds, around 2000 to 2700 agl over eastern MN
and WI, can be seen on satellite imagery advancing to the south
and will likely overtake DBQ by noon. This has been added to the
DBQ forecast, but will be watching trends closely for possible
updates to CID and MLI. There is some uncertainty into how far
south this deck will reach before possibly dissipating. Otherwise,
conditions will be VFR with increasing west to northwest winds
becoming gusty behind a weak surface front moving through this
morning. These winds will become light tonight in another lull
between fast moving systems moving through the Great Lakes.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Nichols
SHORT TERM...Nichols
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...Sheets



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