Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 151138

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
538 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2018


Issued at 255 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

Upper disturbance with snow starting to move east with diminishing
snow moving in from the west. Most areas have picked up 1 to 2 inches
of snow which is an inch or two less than forecast. Additional 1 or
less inch expected. Area temperatures starting to crash in west with
singled digits moving in. Now cast tools all support wrap- around clouds
and flurries NE section this PM. Trends suggest advisory may be able
to cancelled early with decreasing snow.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

Short term forecast confidence assessment...fair to poor or average
to below average. Main challenge is ending of snow and remaining snow
totals with a half inch or less suggested all but possibly far NW Illinois
today. This may support removal of winter weather advisory early
with snow covered roadways a consideration of when to end.

Today...will keep advisory and wind chills as is but concern as mentioned
above is snow may end early with trends suggesting cancelling Winter
Weather Advisory by mid morning. marginal Wind Chill Advisory NW today
will keep and also ton light for later shift to reassess. Lowest wind
chills should be in the -20 to possibly -25 degree range. Highs in
the east will be early morning with steady to falling temperatures
with west nearly steady all day. Highs could be off also by 3 plus
degrees depending on speed of cold air moving in. Highs low single
digits northwest to upper teens a mean forecast for later shift to
reassess based on cold air timing. Northwest winds of 20 to 30 MPH
will result in low wind chills for a biting cold even southeast.

Tonight...mostly cloudy with isolated flurries still possible for
later shifts to assess. Blustery with northwest winds 15 to 25 mph
with lows 5 below to 5 above. This supports again a marginal wind
chill advisory with northeast sections of advisory possibly removed
if temperatures are a bit higher with current wind speeds or lower.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

Tuesday through Friday night: Dry during this time frame with a
warming trend as the upper flow becomes zonal and then southwest, as
a deep trough moves into the western states. High pressure in the
southern states will essentially shut off any gulf moisture. Highs
will be in mainly in the teens on Tuesday warming to the 30s and 40s
by the end of the week.

This weekend: Deep negatively-tilted trough will be pushing into the
Plains and Midwest as the ridge shifts east into the southeast
states. This will rapidly open up the gulf moisture and transport it
northward on a whopping 65-75 knot LLJ depending on which global
model you look at. The Midwest will get under the left exit region
of a powerful h3 jet which will deepen the cyclone out of the
southern Rockies. This looks to be a classic panhandle hook storm
which will be tracking into central IA on Sunday (990mb) and then to
Lake Superior on Monday (984mb). This should be mainly a rain event
for the dvn cwa with some light snow with the wraparound on Monday.
However, too early for any exact details this far out.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
ISSUED AT 534 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

Mostly MVFR ceilings to prevail at all the terminals with winds northwest
at 15 kts to around 25 kts. Flurries possible at DBQ terminal where
they likely to continue into this evening.


IA...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for Benton-Buchanan-
     Cedar-Clinton-Delaware-Des Moines-Dubuque-Henry IA-Iowa-
     Muscatine-Scott-Van Buren-Washington.

     Wind Chill Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to noon CST Tuesday
     for Cedar-Clinton-Des Moines-Dubuque-Henry IA-Jackson-Jones-
     Lee-Louisa-Muscatine-Scott-Van Buren.

     Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST Tuesday for Benton-Buchanan-

IL...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for Bureau-Carroll-
     Hancock-Henderson-Henry IL-Jo Daviess-McDonough-Mercer-
     Putnam-Rock Island-Stephenson-Warren-Whiteside.

     Wind Chill Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to noon CST Tuesday
     for Bureau-Hancock-Henderson-Henry IL-McDonough-Mercer-
     Putnam-Rock Island-Warren-Whiteside.

MO...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for Clark-Scotland.

     Wind Chill Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to noon CST Tuesday
     for Clark-Scotland.



SHORT TERM...Nichols
AVIATION...Nichols is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.