Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FXUS63 KDVN 262130
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
330 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AN 850MB ARCTIC FRONT FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS. SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
SHOW SLOWLY CLEARING SKIES ACROSS ILLINOIS WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE PLAINS.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. DEW POINTS WERE BELOW ZERO FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH TEENS AND HIGHER FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

QUIET AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

WIND SPEEDS TONIGHT WILL DICTATE HOW COLD IT GETS. THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE AREA SO SOME GRADIENT WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE AREA. THUS THE FORECASTED LOWS FOR TONIGHT MAY BE TOO
COLD.

REGARDLESS...LOWS TONIGHT WILL APPROACH AND POSSIBLY TIE OR EXCEED
RECORDS. REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR SPECIFIC NUMBERS.

TEMPERATURES AND WINDS WILL ALSO DETERMINE WIND CHILLS FOR TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY MORNING.

BASED ON CRITERIA...HEADLINES FOR WIND CHILL WILL BE NEEDED FOR LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...IF
THE WIND KEEP TEMPERATURES UP THEN THE POSSIBILITY DOES EXIST THAT
WIND CHILLS MAY NOT REACH CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON VERY COLD TEMPERATURES GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
TWO SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEMS IN THE OFFING.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND VERY LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS. WITH THE FRESH SNOW COVER THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
PLUMMET TO BELOW ZERO ONCE AGAIN. READINGS SHOULD RANGE FROM 12
BELOW IN OUR FAR NW TO SINGLE DIGITS BELOW IN OUR SOUTH. IF THERE IS
ENOUGH WIND THEN WIND CHILLS WILL DROP TO 20 TO 27 BELOW NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 34 AND A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. THE HIGH SHIFTS
OFF TO OUR EAST ON SATURDAY WITH A RETURN FLOW BUT A DRY AIRMASS
WILL TAKE TIME TO SATURATE. ECMWF/GFS HAS BACKED OFF ON THE QPF FOR
SATURDAY AND I WILL CONFINE THE SMALL POPS TO OUR FAR SW SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. IF THIS SLOWER TREND CONTINUES LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE
TO GO COMPLETELY DRY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN
THE TEENS NORTH TO LOWER 20S SOUTH.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM EXPECTED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA DUE TO STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION/MOISTURE TRANSPORT
OUT OF THE WESTERN GULF. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW...POSSIBLY HEAVY IN
OUR SOUTHERN CWA...APPEARS LIKELY AND HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED IN THE
NEAR FUTURE. AT THIS POINT WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES LOOK LIKELY...WITH AROUND 6 INCHES POSSIBLE IN OUR FAR SOUTH.
THESE NUMBERS ARE IN THE GRIDS NOW BUT ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE BUT
MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. DUE TO THE EVEN
DEEPER SNOW PACK I HAVE LOWERED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY FROM
WHAT THE ALL-BLEND INDICATED...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM COMES OUT OF A DEEP
TROUGH IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND THIS ONE WILL HAVE A NICE
SURFACE LOW AND WIDE OPEN GULF TO DEAL WITH. MODELS INDICATE A 60-70
KNOT LOW LEVEL JET POINTED INTO THE MIDWEST. WITH A DEEP SNOW PACK
IN PLACE THIS SETS UP A REAL MESS IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURE AND
RELATED PRECIPITATION TYPES...FROM FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AND SNOW TO
PLAIN RAIN. MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS ALSO A REAL CONCERN.
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS FAR AS TIMING WITH THE ECMWF
BRINGING HEAVIER AMOUNTS ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE GFS
SUGGESTS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE ECWMF IS ALSO A BIT COLDER
WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND WITH THE DEEP SNOW PACK AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM THE SURFACE LOW COULD TRACK A BIT FARTHER SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE
DEEP WESTERN TROUGH WOULD TEND TO ALLOW FOR THE MORE NORTHERN TRACK.
BEING SEVERAL DAYS AWAY CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MODERATE BUT CERTAINLY
SOMETHING TO KEEP UPDATED ON THIS EVENT.

MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK...IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM THE UPPER
FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST ALLOWING FOR COLDER TEMPERATURES TO RETURN.
THE MODELS ALSO INDICATE A QUIETER AND DRY PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1117 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH 12Z/28 AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST. MVFR CLOUDS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST THROUGH SUNSET.


&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 328 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

RECORD LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 27...

MOLINE.........-12 IN 1934
CEDAR RAPIDS...-10 IN 1897
DUBUQUE........-12 IN 1879
BURLINGTON.....-7 IN 1934


RECORD LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 28...

MOLINE.........-9 IN 1962
CEDAR RAPIDS...-17 IN 1962
DUBUQUE........-10 IN 1962
BURLINGTON.....-7 IN 1962


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR CEDAR-
     CLINTON-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JONES-
     KEOKUK-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-WASHINGTON.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR
     BENTON-BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-IOWA-JOHNSON-LINN.

IL...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR BUREAU-
     CARROLL-HENDERSON-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-
     PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WARREN-WHITESIDE.

MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...08
CLIMATE...08





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