Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FXUS63 KDVN 292003
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
303 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS A RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS WITH A STRONG DEEP TROF
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WERE DROPPING DOWN
THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROF FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON SHOW PLENTY OF
DIURNAL CLOUDS WITH NEW CONVECTION OVER WISCONSIN AND PART OF
NORTHERN ILLINOIS.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS SEVERAL WEAK TROFS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BACK
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 50S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST WITH 60S FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE DEEP SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

DIURNAL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION
AS FORCING ACTS ON WHAT LIMITED MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE IN THE
ATMOSPHERE. BASED ON SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS AND INPUT FROM THE
RAP...CONVECTION SHOULD MAXIMIZE IN COVERAGE THROUGH SUNSET WITH
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN AND NORTHEAST ILLINOIS.

ISOLATED TO VERY LOW END SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL PERSIST OVER THE
NORTHEAST THIRD OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNSET AND THEN RAPIDLY DECREASE
THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

AFTER MIDNIGHT QUIET CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BE SEEN WITH POSSIBLY A
FEW MORE CLOUDS AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE ROTATES THROUGH THE AREA.
SHELTERED VALLEYS MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP DUE TO THE LIGHT
WINDS.

QUIET CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
NEW DIURNAL CLOUDS DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
ALOFT WILL DROP INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND INITIATE A NEW ROUND OF DIURNAL SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHEAST THIRD
TO HALF OF THE AREA. COVERAGE AGAIN WILL BE ISOLATED TO VERY LOW END
SCATTERED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

OVERALL NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST WHICH REMAINS BELOW
NORMAL ON TEMPS AND RELATIVELY DRY.  DAILY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 70S/LOW 80S THU THROUGH SAT...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOW 60S.  SOME MODERATION IN TEMPS BACK TOWARD NORMAL EARLY AUGUST
VALUES IS EXPECTED FOR SUN THROUGH TUE...WITH LOW TO MID 80S FOR
HIGHS AND LOW TO MID 60S FOR MINS.

WE REMAIN IN BLOCKED CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHICH
LIMITS CHANCES FOR RAIN.  REMOVED SLIGHT POPS FOR THU. NEXT CHANCE
AT SHOWERS IS FRI...WITH A 20 TO 40 POP GRADIENT...HIGHER VALUES TO
THE NE PARTS OF THE CWFA. THE CONSENSUS FORECAST HAS SLIGHT-LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR SAT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY.  LOW CHANCE POPS NORTH OF I 80 RETURN FOR MON.  MORE ACTIVE
WEATHER IS INDICATED FOR TUE AND AGAIN MID-LATE WEEK NEXT WEEK AS A
MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z/30. ISOLATED SHRA ARE
POSSIBLE AFT 20Z/29 WITH KDBQ HAVING A BETTER CHANCE. HOWEVER...
THE PROBABILITY OF A SHRA AFFECTING A TAF SITE IS UNDER 10
PERCENT. AFT 06Z/30 MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE. THE POSSIBILITY DOES EXIST FOR PATCHY MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING IN GROUND FOG PRIOR TO SUNRISE.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...14
AVIATION...08





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