Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 131831
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
131 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 127 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

I HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR OUR NORTHWESTERN 1/2 OR SO GIVEN
HEAVY RAINS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING...AND A
THREAT OF 1 TO 2 MORE INCHES YET TO FALL. THIS IS LIKELY FALLING
AT RATES NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR FLASH FLOODING...BUT TRIBUTARY RIVER
FLOODING LOOKS LIKE A GROWING THREAT.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

THE WEAKENING MCS AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS MOVING OUT OF THE CWA LEAVING SOME LIGHT
STRATIFORM RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IN ITS
WAKE. MEANWHILE... THE NEXT SYSTEM IS RAPIDLY TAKING SHAPE AS THE
MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

MAIN CONCERN TODAY IS QPF.

NOT MUCH TIME TO DECIPHER DETAILS IN THE FORECAST MODELS...BUT THE
COMMON THREAD IS A BRIEF RESPITE OF DRY WEATHER EARLY THIS
MORNING...THEN REDEVELOPMENT OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSED ON
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CWA LATER THIS MORNING.

DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME AS PRECIP
RATES IN THE RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS COMBINED WITH DRY SOILS
SHOULD LIMIT THE THREAT.  ONLY CONCERN WOULD BE FOR AREAS RECEIVING
HEAVIER RAINS EARLIER THIS MORNING IF INTENSE RAINFALL RATES OR
HIGHER THAN FORECAST QPF OCCURS THERE.  NOTE BOTH LEGACY AND DUAL
POL PRECIP ESTIMATES APPEAR TOO HIGH IN THESE AREAS.  6HR FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES EXCEED 2 INCHES ACROSS THE CWA...ALTHOUGH THIS
DOES NOT CONSIDER THE OVERNIGHT RAINFALL.

AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE
AREA AND EXTENSIVE CLOUDS AND PRECIP.  TEMPS SHOULD SEE LITTLE
RECOVERY FROM EARLY MORNING VALUES...AND FORECAST VALUES REFLECT
THIS.  WOLF

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

ONGOING RAIN EVENT WITH A FEW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
OVER THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING AS SURFACE LOW LIFTS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SUGGESTS PCPN TO CONTINUE
UNTIL MIDNIGHT AND WEAKEN FROM WEST TO EAST AS SYSTEM LIFTS
NORTHEAST INTO MICHIGAN. MODEL PWATS ARE ON THE ORDER OF
1.25-1.40 INCHES AROUND OOZ MONDAY WHICH IS OVER 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL SUPPORTING AN ADDITIONAL HALF INCH OF RAIN
OVER MUCH OF THE CWA.

MONDAY...STRONG CAA AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ON GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL USHER IN MUCH COLDER AIR EARLY MONDAY. THE TIMING OF
THIS COLD AIR STILL IN QUESTION BUT LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST
POSSIBLE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST SECTIONS. DUE TO THE WET AND WARM GROUND...ANY
ACCUMULATION WILL BE A DUSTING AT BEST ON ELEVATED OR GRASSY
SURFACES. MORNING LOWS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS IN
THE 30S. LITTLE RECOVERY IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED DURING THE
DAY MONDAY WITH LINGERING MORNING CLOUDS AND 85H TEMPERATURES PROGGED
TO DROP IN THE -8 TO -10C RANGE DURING THE DAY. ALL IN ALL A VERY
RAW DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL BE FOUND AS A SURFACE RIDGE NEARS THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET INTO THE 20S BY SUNRISE TUESDAY. THIS IS
10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND WILL BE NEAR RECORD LOWS FOR
APRIL 15TH AND HAVE INCLUDED IN THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR REFERENCE.
QUIET AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL.

REST OF EXTENDED...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT STAYING TO OUR NORTH. THERE IS ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM BEING SHOWN BY THE LONG RANGE MODELS AFFECTING THE
REGION IN THE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS CHANCE POPS CENTERED OVER THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
FOR THIS SYSTEM AND HAVE LEFT ALONE FOR NOW IN THE GRIDS UNTIL MODELS
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN HOW SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE AND TRACK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 127 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN...AND
OCCASIONALLY EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING...BEFORE A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH LIGHTENING RAIN RATES
AND CHANGING OVER TO A SNOW/RAIN MIX. VERY POOR FLYING WEATHER IS
FORECAST THROUGH 13Z MONDAY AS THIS STORM SYSTEM MOVES PAST.
BEYOND 13Z MONDAY...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KTS WILL
CONTINUE WITH MVFR CIGS AROUND 1500 FT.
ERVIN

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

RECORD LOWS FOR APRIL 15...

MOLINE.........22 IN 1928
CEDAR RAPIDS...17 IN 1928
DUBUQUE........21 IN 1928
BURLINGTON.....23 IN 1943+

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-CEDAR-
     CLINTON-DELAWARE-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-IOWA-JACKSON-
     JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LEE-LINN-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-
     SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

IL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR CARROLL-JO DAVIESS-MERCER-
     ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WHITESIDE.

MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ERVIN
SYNOPSIS...WOLF
SHORT TERM...WOLF
LONG TERM...GROSS
AVIATION...ERVIN
CLIMATE...GROSS






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