Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 200900

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
300 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2017

Issued at 301 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2017

Early this morning a midlevel NW flow ushered in high level
clouds. This flow is forecast to become more zonal through the
short term period. At the surface, southwest flow lead to the
return of warmer and slightly more humid air across the area. This
flow and warmer temperatures will be the primary weather concerns
through the short term.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2017

Overall quiet weather pattern with gusty winds and warm
temperatures being the hallmark of today. Clouds early this
morning should thin as WAA brings H85 temps of 7 to 9C this
afternoon across the area. With the increase of baroclinicity,
winds will pick up as well. This should promote temperatures
into the 50s. MOSguidance appears to be the warmest of all
guidance. Most of the guidance falls into the low to mid 50s
across the area. If we mix deep enough, around H85 temps will be
too low currently and need to be increased. Confidence is low in
this occurring. Once the sun sets, winds should slacken. A dry
cold front is expected to approach the area by 12z Tuesday.
Overnight lows should be warmer than this mornings.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2017

The highlights of the long term forecast period are mainly dry
weather and variable temperatures.

Expect strong cold air advection Tuesday, with a northwest wind
gusting around 35 mph and falling afternoon temperatures into the
30s. The surface ridge will move through the forecast area Wednesday
with highs only in the 30s.

Late week, look for a return to southwest surface winds with highs
warming into the 50s again by Friday. There are low precipitation
chances mainly Friday night associated with the next fropa, which
will cool off temperatures over the weekend. By Sunday, highs will
again be in the 30s.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
ISSUED AT 1108 PM CST Sun Nov 19 2017

High pressure moving southeast of the region will bring southwest
winds through the next 24 hours, along with a southwest wind of 13
to 20 kts. The next cold front will arrive after midnight Monday
night, which will be the next wind switch. Only cirrus is expected
through Monday night.




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