Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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621
FXUS63 KDVN 221306
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
706 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2018

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 304 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2018

At 3 AM CST light precipitation is developing just to the west and
southwest of the outlook area. Trends suggest any amounts to be
light to very light this morning. Temperatures are running with
increasing clouds at the top end of guidance. All trends suggest
marginal advisory for south section into late morning. Unsettled
weather of light precipitation events to continue into this weekend
with southwest flow of temperatures mostly just above freezing.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2018

Short term forecast confidence assessment...fair to poor or average
to below average. Main issues are two-fold. First is extent of light
amounts with most solutions suggested too moist today. Second is this
would suggest highs today at or above warmest guidance with any winter
precipitation marginal until late morning.

Today...Chance to likely pops from south to north as weak disturbance
passes. Most places to see light snow mixing with light freezing rain
south of I-80 until late morning with snow amounts less than a half
inch to an inch at most and ice mostly of a a glaze on most surfaces.
For continuity will keep current advisory this morning with termination
now at noon as temperatures with any remaining light precipitation
to be above freezing in the south. Highs today mostly 33 far northwest
to around 38 in the southeast.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2018

Have issued new winter weather advisories for tonight for freezing
rain or freezing drizzle.

Tonight the second part of the system moves through the area. The
atmosphere should be close to saturation so precipitation should be
ongoing across the area. As the atmosphere cools, freezing drizzle
and/or freezing rain will develop in the highway 20 corridor from
the Mississippi river on west.

As the evening progresses, a wintry mix will slowly develop further
south and east. As the forcing exits the area after midnight, the
precipitation will end from west to east.

Quiet and dry conditions will be seen across the area Friday and
Friday evening as high pressure quickly moves through the area.
Attention then turns to the next storm system.

Late Friday night through Saturday night the next storm system moves
through the Midwest. There are differences in timing and track of
the system which will be important for precipitation type.

As the atmosphere saturates late Friday night light snow will
develop and spread north across the area. As warmer air moves into
the far south toward daybreak, the snow is expected to change over
to rain with a period of sleet and freezing rain expected.

During the day Saturday snow will change over to rain across the
remainder of the area. During the change a period of sleet and
freezing rain will be possible.

Saturday evening as stronger forcing moves through the area, rain
with embedded thunderstorms will be possible. After midnight the
rain will change back over to snow and end west of the Mississippi.
During the change a period of sleet or freezing rain will be
possible.

Sunday on...

The current model consensus has quiet and dry conditions across the
area from Sunday through Tuesday. Temperatures will average above
normal.

Tuesday night into Wednesday the next storm system moves through the
Midwest. There are differences in timing and track of this storm.
Right now the model consensus has chance pops Tuesday night and
slight chance to chance pops on Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
ISSUED AT 703 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2018

Generally VFR conditions with cloudy skies with areas of light rain
and possibly freezing rain and snow the next 24 hours. Visibilities
may fall to as low as 3 to 5 miles in any precipitation with ceilings
as low as 2-3K AGL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 304 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2018

Area rivers have crested or will crest today with exception of
Rock, lower Wapsipinicon and Pecatonica rivers. Rock River at
Moline still indicated to reach Major flood stage on late Friday.
Light precipitation amounts to impact area next few days limiting
impacts on rivers with all rivers likely to be back within bankfull
by early next week.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 6 AM CST
     Friday for Cedar-Clinton-Iowa-Jackson-Johnson-Jones-Linn.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST
     Friday for Benton-Buchanan-Delaware-Dubuque.

     Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for Keokuk-Louisa-
     Washington.

     Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for Des Moines-
     Henry IA-Jefferson-Lee-Van Buren.

IL...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST
     Friday for Jo Daviess.

     Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for Hancock-
     Henderson-McDonough-Warren.

MO...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for Clark-Scotland.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...16
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...16
HYDROLOGY...16



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