Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 030556
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1156 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

INTENSE SNOW BAND MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL IA TO ROTATE ACROSS
NORTHEAST IA AND WEAKEN SOME OVERNIGHT. ANTICIPATE DETERIORATING
TRAVEL CONDITIONS NORTHEAST IA ESPECIALLY VINTON TO MANCHESTER
NW WHERE UP TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE. THIS ALONG WITH WINDS INCREASING
WILL LEAD TO HAZARDOUS TRAVEL WITH LOWER VISIBILITY AND HAVE
GONE WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NORTHWEST OF CID-DBQ MAINLY
THROUGH 12Z.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 923 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL PERSIST LATE THIS EVE AND LIKELY EXPAND
NWD SOME OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE LOW IN LIGHT AND WEAKLY
CONVERGENT FLOW. EVENTUALLY EXPECT IMPROVEMENT FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH GRADUALLY OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING W/SW WINDS BEHIND THE
LOW.

HAVE RAISED PRECIP CHANCES NORTHWEST CWA OVERNIGHT WITH STRONG
MID LEVEL FGEN BAND AND AXIS OF INSTABILITY NORTH OF PASSING
TROWAL. SOME OF THE LATEST MODEL DATA SHOWS SOME IMPRESSIVE
OMEGAS IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. INITIALLY WILL BE RAIN
BUT INTENSITY AND FORCING SHOULD QUICKLY CHANGE TO SNOW. COULD
SEE MOD/HVY BURSTS OF SNOW AND THINKING 1-2 INCH SNOW ACCUMS
NORTHWEST OF CID-DBQ AXIS WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS NW OF VINTON TO
MANCHESTER. TRAVEL COULD BECOME HAZARDOUS AS WINDS WILL BE
INCREASING LATE TONIGHT AND WITH HEAVIER RATES COULD LEAD TO
SOME PERIODS OF LOW VSBY NORTHEAST IA WITH SLICK AND SNOW COVERED
ROADS AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO SAG BELOW FREEZING. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE ADVISORY FAR NW CWA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY WED AM.

UPDATED GRIDS/ZFP/PFM SENT.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

OCCLUDED CYCLONE IN NORTHEAST KS (992 MB) WITH OCCLUDED FRONT IN
NORTHERN MO. DRIZZLE WAS OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON IN PORTIONS OF
EASTERN IA AND NW IL BUT THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION HAS SHIFTED
WELL TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE CWA. EAST WINDS WERE STILL GUSTING TO 30
MPH ALONG HIGHWAY 20. PATCHY FOG WAS NOTED IN OUR FAR SOUTH. DRY
SLOT WAS MOVING INTO NORTHERN MO BUT THE LATEST SATELLITE FRAMES
SUGGEST THIS IS COMING TO A GRINDING HALT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

FORECAST FOCUS ON FOG POTENTIAL AND RETURN OF SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
OUR NW CWA LATER TONIGHT.

TONIGHT...CYCLONE WILL TRACK TO NEAR INDEPENDENCE IA AROUND
MIDNIGHT AND THEN TOWARDS MILWAUKEE BY 6 AM. THERE MAY BE SOME
LINGERING LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IN OUR FAR NORTH INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE CYCLONE TRACKS CLOSER TO THE
AREA AND WINDS BECOME RATHER LIGHT. FOR NOW WILL MENTION PATCHY FOG.

MODELS DEVELOP AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT IN OUR NW CWA
AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS INTO THE REGION. CLOSE TO AN
INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE AT INDEPENDENCE BY SUNRISE WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTHEAST. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO INCREASE
TOWARDS MORNING IN OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S WEST TO THE LOWER 30S EAST.

HAASE

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

WEDNESDAY...UPPER WAVE/TROF WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACRS
WI WEAKENING/OPENING UP ALONG THE WAY INTO EARLY WED AFTERNOON. THE
SFC LOW WILL BE MOVING THE SAME WAY JUST TO THE LEE SIDE OF THE UPPER
TROF AXIS...WHILE INVERTED SFC TROF OFF THIS FEATURE HANGS BACK ACRS
THE CENTRAL INTO NORTHEASTERN CWA FOR PART OF THE MORNING.
SOUTHEASTERN FLANK OF DIMINISHING DEF ZONE SNOWS WILL CONTINUE TO
ROTATE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACRS THE NORTHERN HALF TO THIRD OF THE DVN
CWA THROUGH NOON...WITH CURRENT PROJECTIONS BY BULK OF LATEST RUN
MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGESTING THAT AREAS NORTH OF HWY 30 MAY GET
ANYWHERE FROM A FEW TENTHS UP TO A HALF INCH ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUM
BY LATE MORNING. IN-WRAPPING WINDS IN TIGHTENING SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT BEHIND EXITING INVERTED TROF WILL INCREASE T0 15-25 MPH
WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH...FROM WEST-TO-EAST AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE SOME PATCHY BLOWING SNOW
ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 30 WED MORNING FOR MAINLY THE WINDS COMBINING
WITH THE AMBIENT FALLING SNOW. BUT WITH AMBIENT TEMPS IN THE 30S
FOR PART OF THE MORNING BEFORE COLD AIR ADVECTION DROP-OFF IN THE
AFTERNOON...EXPECTED WET OR SLUSHY GROUND COVER SNOW WHERE THERE IS
GROUND COVER SNOW...THE TRUE BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED
AND THERE MAY BE MORE IN THE WAY OF SOME LOWER BASED DRIFTING IN
OPEN AREAS. AGAIN EXPECT MORE OF THE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DURING
THE WIND INCREASE WHILE SNOW IS STILL FALLING....AS OPPOSED
TO LOFTED GROUND SNOW. A FEW LINGERING FLURRIES IN THE NORTHEASTERN
CWA INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS INTO WED NIGHT.

A COLD NIGHT WED NIGHT WITH SOME SINGLE DIGIT LOWS IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CWA BY THU MORNING. EVEN WITH WINDS DECREASING TO 6-10
MPH...AMBIENT WIND CHILLS WILL DIP TO ZERO OR COLDER IN THESE
NORTHWESTERN AREAS THROUGH MID THU MORNING.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ADVERTISE A DIGGING
CLIPPER IN NORTHWESTERLIES ALOFT ACRS MN INTO WI LATE THU AND THU
NIGHT. SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SKIRTING THE
NORTHERN CWA AT THAT TIME...BUT WITH LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN ADEQUATE
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE/ICE CRYSTAL DEVELOPMENT LOCALLY WILL KEEP THE
FCST DRY FOR NOW. ACTIVE NORTHWESTERLY CLIPPER TRACK MAY ACTUALLY
INDUCE A WARMING TREND LATER ON FRI AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE ROLLING
ACRS MN FOR HIGHS A BIT MILDER THAN THU...AFTER A CHILL DOWN THE
NIGHT BEFORE/THU NIGHT-FRI AM BEHIND THE PREVIOUS CLIPPER. CLIPPER
INDUCED WARM AIR ADVECTION MAY PRODUCE A FEW FLURRIES FRI NIGHT BUT
AGAIN WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY FOR NOW.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THERMALLY MODERATION CONTINUES INTO SAT...
BEFORE YET ANOTHER AND MORE VIGOROUS CLIPPER INDICATED BY SEVERAL OF
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TAKES AIM AT THE WESTERN GRT LKS BY LATE
SUNDAY. LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY BE ON THE
INCREASE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM BY LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.

NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LONG RANGE INDICATIONS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE SOUTHWARD PLUNGING UPPER JET AND DEEP L/W TROF FORMATION
DOWN ACRS THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE TN VALLEY REGIONS THIS PERIOD.
SHARPLY AMPLIFYING WEST COAST RIDGING AND THIS EVOLVING PATTERN
WOULD OPEN UP THE REGION TO COLD CANADIAN/ARCTIC AIR MASSES DUMPING
DOWN THE MIDWEST/WESTERN GRT LKS EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. A COLD CORE
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE DEVELOPING OVER OR JUST TO THE EAST OF THE REGION
MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES MON INTO TUE
ACRS THE AREA. BUT CURRENT PROGS SUCH AS THE 12Z RUN GFS AND ECMWF
WHILE SHOWING CANADIAN AIR MASS FLUX FROM THE NORTH...THEY ARE NOT
SHOWING EXTREME COLD SUCH AS H85 MB TEMPS WELL IN THE -20C OR
COLDER VALUES FOR NOW.     ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

ANTICIPATE VLIFR DENSE FOG TO LIFT OVERNIGHT AS WINDS INCREASE
WITH MAINLY IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW THROUGH MID AM
ALTHOUGH PERIOD OF VFR POSSIBLE AT BRL AND MLI. SNOW OVER CENTRAL
IA TO ROTATE ACROSS MAINLY NORTHEAST IA OVERNIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK
WITH PERIOD OF ACCUMS AT CID AND DBQ WITH HEAVIEST NORTHWEST OF
THESE TERMINALS. MORE SHOWERY PRECIP POSSIBLY A MIX TO GO OVER TO
PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES AND BRL AND MLI WED AM FOR A
TIME. EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION TO END BY MID TO LATE AM AND
CONDITIONS TO LIFT TO MVFR FOR CIGS... WITH WINDS GUSTY FROM THE
NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 30 KTS. BLOWING SNOW UNCERTAIN AT DBQ AND CID
AND THUS LEFT OUT MENTION. POSSIBLE TO SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT TO
VFR LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD... BUT OPTED TO STAY ON PESSIMISTIC
SIDE FOR NOW.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR BENTON-CEDAR-
     CLINTON-DES MOINES-HENRY IA-IOWA-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-
     JONES-KEOKUK-LINN-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-WASHINGTON.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR BENTON-
     BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR LEE-VAN BUREN.

IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-
     HENDERSON-HENRY IL-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-WARREN-
     WHITESIDE.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR HANCOCK-
     MCDONOUGH.

MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

UPDATE...05
SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...05


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