Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FXUS63 KDVN 230440
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1140 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2016

SURFACE TROUGH AND POOLING MOISTURE AIDING IN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
STRATUS/STRATOCU RESULTING IN PT-MOCLDY SKIES. DESPITE THIS
AND N/NE WINDS JUST ENOUGH THINNING OR BREAKS IN CLOUDS HAS
ALLOWED TEMPS TO CLIMB BACK CLOSE TO NORMAL RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 50S FAR NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH AS OF 3 PM. DRIER AIR AND
INCOMING SUBSIDENCE IS LEADING TO A DECREASE IN CLOUDS FROM THE
NORTH AND EAST... AND THIS SHOULD PROGRESS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2016

OVERALL... CONTINUED DECREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH INCOMING
SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR ON LIGHT E/NE WINDS. COOLEST LOWS
EXPECTED IN THE FAR E/NE CWA WHERE MID TO UPPER 30S LIKELY WITH
LOW RISK OF SOME ISOLD LOWER 30S IN VALLEYS OR DRAINAGE DEPENDING
ON CLOUDS. WARMER LOWS (MID/UPPER 40S) IN THE FAR WEST/SOUTHWEST
WHERE CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS LINGER THE LONGEST.

SATURDAY...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AND VERY PLEASANT WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AS GREAT LAKES SURFACE RIDGING REMAINS
THE DOMINANT FEATURE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2016

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM IS THE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER
PATTERN TO A MORE ACTIVE ONE.  SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH A COUPLE QUIET
DAYS INTER MIXED THROUGH THE PERIOD.  AT THIS TIME SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.  THE SPC HAS THE AREA IN A DAY 6
SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK.  REGARDLESS OF THE SPECIFICS...THE LONG TERM
WILL FEATURE RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS.

MUCH LIKE THE PREVIOUS SHIFT...A SCHC POPS WAS HELD ON TO ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.  DO NOT THINK WE WILL SEE ANYTHING AS H5
RIDGING WILL LIKELY LIMIT POPS ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL THE SW FLOW CAN
BECOME ENTRENCHED INTO SUNDAY.  SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY. SUNDAY
NIGHT...A WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE 4KM
NAM SUGGEST THE COVERAGE OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
AFTER 00Z MON. 4KM NAM DEPICTS A LINE OF STORMS APPROACHING THE CWA
SUNDAY EVENING. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE
TO THE WEST OF THE CWA. THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE CWA COULD BE
ON THE WEAKENING SIDE THROUGH 06Z.

MONDAY...A BOUNDARY WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA.  IF DIURNAL CONVECTION
THIS BOUNDARY COULD SERVE AS A FOCAL POINT FOR THAT CONVECTION.  NOT
CONFIDENT ON ANY SOLUTION AT THIS TIME AS CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY
INHIBIT ANY CONVECTION CHANCES ON MONDAY.  TUESDAY THERE WILL BE A
LULL IN THE ACTIVE WEATHER A RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

MIDWEEK...THERE IS A H5 WAVE THAT SWINGS INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH
THE LEFT EXIT REGION TO A JET. A WARM FRONT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO
BE ACROSS OUR AREA.  THIS SETUP LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR SOME SORT OF
SEVERE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTORS IN ANYTHING
MORE THAN A MENTION IN THE AFD IS THAT THERE HAVE BEEN DIFFERENCES
IN MODEL RUNS. THIS LEADS TO LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE.
ALSO...MESOSCALE FEATURES FOR THE EVENT ARE YET TO BE DETERMINED AND
WILL BE VERY IMPORTANT FOR ANY THREATS. ALSO...A CLOUDY RAINY DAY
COULD LEAD TO LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT.  SO PAY ATTENTION TO
FUTURE FORECASTS TO SEE IF THE MODELS CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2016

A SMALL...SHRINKING REMNANT OF THE STRATUS THAT COVERED EASTERN
IOWA FRIDAY WAS IN THE VICINITY OF CID AT 04Z. THIS WAS IN AN AREA
OF FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE
OF A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM WI TO EASTERN MO. SHORT
TERM MODELS SUGGEST STRATUS MAY REGENERATING AT MVFR LEVELS IN
THIS AREA ALONG WITH POSSIBLE FOG BEFORE SUNRISE AND HAVE ADDED
THIS TO THE CID FORECAST. ELSEWHERE...WILL INCLUDE A LOW
CONFIDENCE TREND OF 4SM TO 6SM VISIBILITIES DUE TO FOG DEVELOPING
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THIS SHOULD BURN OFF SATURDAY MORNING
WITH VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE REST OF
THE DAY WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR STEPHENSON.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MCCLURE
SHORT TERM...MCCLURE
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...SHEETS



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