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000
ACUS01 KWNS 100054
SWODY1
SPC AC 100053

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0753 PM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024

Valid 100100Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS TO NORTHERN LOUISIANA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected tonight from
south-central Texas to the lower Mississippi Valley. All hazards are
anticipated (including very large hail and an isolated strong
tornado or two), with damaging gusts to 75 mph possible with a
potential squall line later tonight.

...01z Update...

Leading edge of large-scale ascent is spreading across west
TX/northeast Mexico early this evening. Water-vapor imagery supports
this with moistening midlevels arcing from near MAF to west of the
international border along the Rio Grande Valley. Boundary layer
steepened significantly west of the dryline across Mexico this
afternoon, and high-based convection has attempted to organize from
south of DRT to Monterrey Mexico. 00z sounding from DRT supports
this post-dryline air mass with very steep lapse rates noted through
6km. There is increasing concern that isolated severe thunderstorms
will eventually evolve along the western fringe of the deeper moist
boundary layer, then grow upscale into a linear MCS before racing
northeast toward the lower Sabine River Valley by 10/12z. Given the
large-scale support, strong shear, and very steep lapse rates,
environmental conditions appear supportive of this scenario. 01z
outlook will reflect this scenario by increasing severe probs into
south-central TX.

Downstream, persistent low-level warm advection will maintain
scattered-numerous thunderstorms from southeast TX into central MS.
Earlier thoughts regarding the severe potential continue, including
the possibility for an isolated strong tornado and perhaps hail in
excess of 2 inches with supercells.

..Darrow.. 04/10/2024

$$