923
ACUS02 KWNS 030602
SWODY2
SPC AC 030600

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Fri May 03 2024

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms posing a threat for very large hail,
damaging winds, and perhaps a few tornadoes should occur across
parts of the southern High Plains Saturday afternoon and evening.
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across a broader
portion of the southern Plains into the Ozarks, mid Mississippi
Valley, and Midwest.

...Synopsis...
A closed upper low will move east-southeastward over the western
states on Saturday. Downstream, a shortwave trough will advance
quickly east-northeastward across the Upper Midwest through the day.
A related weak surface low should develop from IA towards IL in the
same time frame. A cold front will extend southwestward from this
low across parts of the mid MS Valley into the southern Plains. A
subtle/low-amplitude shortwave trough is forecast to move across
northern Mexico and the southern High Plains by late Saturday
afternoon. This feature may provide sufficient lift to support
isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms across parts of the
southern High Plains Saturday afternoon/evening.

...Southern High Plains...
A weak surface low should be in place over parts of far west TX and
north-central Mexico through the day, with a dryline extending
southward from this low. A southward-moving cold front should
eventually intersect the dryline by late Saturday afternoon. Diurnal
heating of a very moist low-level airmass and steep mid-level lapse
rates will contribute to moderate/locally strong instability across
west TX and southeastern NM. Convective initiation appears likely
along both boundaries Saturday afternoon and evening. Although
low-level flow should remain rather weak through the day, a
favorably veering and slowly strengthening wind profile with height
through mid levels will support around 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear.
Robust thunderstorms that develop should quickly become
supercellular and pose a threat for very large hail. Occasional
severe/damaging downdraft winds may also occur. The tornado threat
should be modulated to some extent by weak low-level flow and modest
0-1 km shear through much of the afternoon. Still, a few tornadoes
appear possible towards Saturday evening with any persistent
supercell as an easterly low-level jet strengthens. A Slight Risk
has been introduced across parts of west TX and southeastern NM
where confidence is greatest in supercells occurring.

...Midwest/Mid Mississippi Valley to the Ozarks/Southern Plains...
A line of strong to locally severe thunderstorms may be ongoing at
the start of the period Saturday morning along or just ahead of the
cold front, extending from IA into eastern KS. Even with a nocturnal
minimum in instability, occasional damaging winds may occur with
this line before it eventually weakens by late morning. Eventual
redevelopment appears probable across parts of the mid MS
Valley/Midwest by Saturday afternoon, as daytime heating ahead of
the front fosters weak to moderate MLCAPE. Deep-layer shear appears
marginal to support organized convection (around 25-30 kt). But,
some small clusters may consolidate and pose an isolated threat for
damaging winds and hail as they spread eastward across parts of the
Midwest through Saturday afternoon, before slowly weakening Saturday
evening with the loss of daytime heating.

There also appears to be some chance for convection across west TX
to spread eastward across much of OK/TX Saturday evening/night as
the weak shortwave trough continues eastward across these areas.
With moderate to strong MUCAPE present along/south of the cold
front, some of this activity could pose a continued threat for
isolated severe hail and gusty winds.

..Gleason.. 05/03/2024

$$