520
ACUS03 KWNS 010729
SWODY3
SPC AC 010728

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CDT Wed May 01 2024

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible late Friday into
Saturday morning over parts of the central Plains.

...Synopsis...
On Friday, a shortwave trough will quickly exit the upper MS Valley
and move into Ontario, as a secondary wave moves east into the
northern High Plains. To the south, moderate high-level winds will
persist from Mexico into TX.

At the surface, high pressure will move across the central and
northern Plains and into the upper and middle MS Valley behind the
ejecting shortwave trough, leaving a boundary roughly from the OH
Valley into the southern Plains during the day. South of this
boundary, a moist air mass will remain.

Another cold front will move into the central Plains late in the day
and overnight, in association with the High Plains shortwave trough.
This front will eventually interact with low-level moisture as
southerly winds increase late across the Plains in response to the
upper wave.

...Central/Southern Plains...
Strong heating will occur from western into central TX, generally
west of the more robust low-level moisture which will gradually move
westward due to easterly winds, then mix out. Little convergence
will exist to support storm development, although the air mass will
become uncapped and unstable. As such, isolated strong storms cannot
be ruled out during the peak heating hours over northwest TX, and
perhaps into the TX Panhandle or western OK as the front lifts north
late.

A greater probability of storms will occur along the cold front
overnight as it intercepts the unstable air mass from eastern CO
across KS and into northwest OK by 12Z Saturday. Modest 25-35 kt
westerlies at 500 mb along with 30+ kt southerly winds at 850 mb may
support a linear MCS, with areas of damaging wind gusts and hail.
Given uncertainties, a 5% risk area is prudent.

..Jewell.. 05/01/2024

$$