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000
FXUS63 KEAX 222112
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
412 PM CDT Wed May 22 2013

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 408 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

The forecast area will remain under the influence of a seasonably
cool and dry cyclonic flow around a nearly vertically stacked low
pressure system now over eastern IA. A secondary cold front with
another surge of cooler air is expected to drop south across NE and
IA later this evening and through the CWA overnight. Considerable
cold air stratocu will begin to scatter out across the southwestern
CWA this evening but much slower over the rest of the region. The
far northern counties will likely remain under a blanket of clouds
through the night.

The stratocu will likely hang around over the CWA for most of the
morning before finally scattering out. Temperatures through h8 will
be similar to today but should have the benefit of afternoon
sunshine to support warmer readings than today. Favored the slightly
cooler MAV MOS guidance due to the north to northeast surface
winds.

A surface high building south through the Great Lakes Thursday night
into Friday will maintain a pool of cool air that will be drawn
westward on Friday. This will keep temperatures below average for a
third day. An amplifying upper level ridge will press eastward
through the Plains on Friday which will allow warm air advection
aloft to spread increasing mid and high level cloud cover towards
MO. However, the easterly boundary layer winds will maintain a cool
and dry fetch such that not overly impressed on rain chances through
Friday. Best one could hope for are sprinkles or a brief afternoon
shower over northwest MO.


.LONG TERM...(Friday Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 408 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

The forecast for Friday night and on through the holiday weekend
into next week remains relatively unchanged with a prolonged period
of unsettled weather.

By Friday evening models advertise a shortwave ridge having migrated
into the Plains, where it will linger through the weekend into next
week as it remains stuck between troughs anchored across either
coast. Thoughts are this blocking pattern will hold steady as
advertised, thus allowing temperatures to rebound slowly into early next
week. This will keep temperatures around normal through the weekend,
slowly lifting them into the 80s early next week.

Major issue for the holiday weekend will be the potential
for storms. Shortwave ridge, as mentioned earlier, will be a
persistent feature over the region. Shortwave troughs moving
through, or ejecting from, the larger synoptic west coast trough will
spend the next several days riding up and over the ridge. These small
perturbations will have the potential to bring repeated rounds of
rain as they are swept over the ridge. At this time, confidence is
highest that stormy activity will occur Saturday as the first of many
ejecting troughs sweep through the region. Therefore, have kept the
focus for likely POPs on Saturday. Confidence generally drops off in
the later periods though this is mostly due to the uncertainties of
antecedent convection; depending on whether a boundary has been left
across the region and/or where available moisture will be. However,
with the ridge not moving much, and a endless parade of shortwave
troughs looking to exit the west coast over a Plains States ridge,
thoughts are storms will be possible throughout the later periods.
Have left the latter half of the forecast broad brushed with chance
POPs as a result.

Otherwise, the potential for severe weather continues to look very
low owing to a mismatch between shear and instability in these outer
periods.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

Cold air advection tied to cyclonic circulation around deep low over
IA will maintain large area of MVFR cigs across northern/central MO
and northeast KS through mid afternoon. Mixing should allow cigs to
rise to low end VFR later this afternoon and continue through
tonight. Low level moisture should remain plentiful and Bufkit
soundings and condensation pressure deficit progs indicate another
southward surge of MVFR cigs out of IA/northern MO will push into the
terminals Thursday morning.

Any instability showers this afternoon should remain north of the
terminals over northern MO and dissipate a few hours after sunset.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...MJ/Cutter
AVIATION...MJ