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000
FXUS63 KEAX 132257
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
557 PM CDT Mon May 13 2013

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 332 PM CDT MON MAY 13 2013

Latest surface analysis shows lee trough and attendant heat axis
stretching from west Texas up through the western Dakotas. As
shortwave troughing quickly moves along the US/Canadian boarder over
the next 24 hours, the elevated mixed layer will strengthen and spread
eastward across the central Plains, delivering record heat across
much of Nebraska into northern Kansas, northwest Missouri and western
Iowa on Tuesday.

For tonight, clear skies will generally prevail. A dry boundary
layer should decouple just enough to allow temperatures to drop
rather quickly this evening, and then level off in the upper 50s to
around 60 as flow begins to veer toward the southwest.

Tuesday: Record highs likely for KC and STJ. Very hot elevated mixed
layer, characterized by 850mb temps in the 22 to 24C range will
spread across NE KS and NW MO by afternoon. Expect highs in the low-
mid 90s to be common along and NW of I-35, coupled with a blast
furnace effect on increasingly gusty southwest winds. Record highs of
91 (Kansas City) and 93 (St. Joseph) appear to be in jeopardy. Fire
danger will also be very high with relative humidity values expected
to fall below 25%, and only the winds and short term fuel moistures
conflict the need for a red flag. Model dewpoints have been running
with a strong moist bias, and based on progged soundings and expected
mixing depth, have dropped them considerably for tomorrow afternoon.

Tuesday Night-Wednesday Night: Diffuse frontal zone will ease southward
along the southern edge of the upper level westerlies, while a
stronger mid level cutoff low meanders from old Mexico into the
southern Plains. Between these features, we should collectively to
see moisture (albeit of limited quality) transport northward into the
area. As the EML begins to dissipate, temperatures should begin to
moderate on Wednesday as well. The slightly cooler readings, coupled
with increasing boundary layer moisture should lead to Cu development
in the afternoon, some of which could grow into Cb`s by
afternoon/early evening over northern MO. Best chance for
thunderstorms should be along and north of a KC-IRK line Wednesday
evening, although paltry flow should mitigate any robust storms.
Would expect the activity to steadily weaken as the boundary layer
cools Wednesday night.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT MON MAY 13 2013

Looks as though spring will decide to return to the region toward
the latter half of the week as near to slightly above normal
temperatures appear once again. Near zonal flow aloft will
become more northwesterly over the Northern Plains and the southern
trough will continue to move eastward into southern Missouri and
Arkansas by Thursday. An eroding quasi-stationary front positioned
across Missouri will begin to move towards the Great Lakes region as
a vigorous shortwave trough translates across the southern Canadian
Plains. Precipitation chances will continue along this weak frontal
zone as a series of weak disturbances move through the flow.

By Friday...shortwave ridging will build into the region as a trough
moves into the Pacific Northwest and across the Rockies. While there
is some disagreement between models on the placement and timing of
this feature as it moves eastward...both models do agree that the
trough will quickly deepen as it moves into the Northern Plains. The
associated surface front will progress across the plains and will be
the main focus for convection on Sunday. With increasing low level
jet ahead of the front and upper level jet streak nosing into the
region, may see increasing chances for severe weather Sunday
afternoon and evening.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 557 PM CDT MON MAY 13 2013

VFR conditions are expected through the entire forecast period. Winds
will become strong and gusty Tuesday morning with sustained winds in
the 15 to 20 kt range from the southwest. Gusts of 25 to 30 kts are
likely. Once winds increase in the late morning, the will likely
persist through the remainder of the forecast.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bookbinder
LONG TERM...PMM
AVIATION...CDB