Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 202031

331 PM CDT Wed May 20 2015

Issued at 331 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

Rain has pushed east of the area this afternoon with just some
residual drizzle in its wake. Drizzle may continue into the early
evening hours before high pressure begins to move in tonight and
dries conditions out. Cloud cover will remain over the area through
the overnight hours keeping temperatures from plummeting. Expect
lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Clouds are finally expected to
scatter out tomorrow morning and that will lead the way for mostly
sunny skies tomorrow afternoon. However, weak mixing will keep highs
in the mid 60s which is still some 10 degrees below normal. High
pressure will continue to remain in control through Thursday night
and into Friday morning. Also, on Friday morning, an upper level low
will be located across southern California. This upper level low and
associated upper trough will begin to lift into the Great Basin on
Friday. As it does, a weak lead shortwave will move into the central
Plains. Rain will move across Kansas during the day however, as it
approaches the local area, dry air in place should keep conditions
mainly dry although there will be a slight chance for light showers
across the western CWA Friday afternoon and Friday night. Despite
cloud cover, weak upper ridging will allow highs to rise into the
mid 60s to lower 70s.

The extended timeframe looks to produce several rounds of showers
and thunderstorms. Although, severe weather potential looks low
through the period. PWAT values of 1.25"-1.75" through the holiday
weekend and into the beginning of next week are 2 to 3 standard
deviations above normal. This will lead the potential of continued
and exacerbated river flooding as well as the potential for
localized flash flooding in areas where heavier thunderstorms occur.
Models indicate that there could be an additional 2"-4" of QPF
falling over the area Saturday through Wednesday. This heavy and
prolonged rainfall will be the cause of upper level pattern becoming
slow. On Saturday an upper level high will set up over the
southeastern CONUS causing the upper level trough that was moving
through the Great Basin to slow its eastward progress. This pattern
will only become reinforced through the weekend. Meanwhile, Gulf
moisture will be streaming northward on the back side of the sern
ridge and out ahead of the slow moving approaching trough. This
pattern finally begins to breakdown by mid-week next week however,
models are depicting a surface boundary stalling across the area on
Wednesday and becoming the focus for additional precipitation.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

MVFR cigs with ocnl IFR cigs/vis and drizzle will affect the
terminals thru 21Z. Otrw...expect persistent MVFR cigs through mid-
morning tomorrow before surface high pressure begins to scatter out
the clouds. Winds will be out of the NNE today btn 10-15kts before
becmg lgt out of the NW tonight.




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