Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 210927
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
427 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 427 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

What forecast concerns there are for the next week remain focused on
the potential for rain Wednesday through Thursday as seasonally nice
conditions will prevail otherwise. Early morning satellite and
surface observations show a shortwave ridge prevailing across the
Plains States with its axis still to our west across central Kansas.
This will keep conditions across eastern Kansas and Missouri rather
pleasant today through much of Wednesday. Precipitable weather
will have to wait for a shortwave trough --currently making landfall
across the Pacific Northwest-- to move through the Plains later this
week as it drags a cold front through.

The Pacific Northwest shortwave will transit the Plains Wednesday
through Thursday. Resulting modest cold front will sweep from west
to east across Kansas and Missouri beginning early Thursday morning.
Current timing continues to point at the onset time for rain likely
being after midnight Wednesday, though many models continue to hedge
activity to start a little earlier. Shear and instability along the
front continue to look rather weak -- 0-3KM shear 20 knots with 200
J/KG MUCAPE--, thus showers and embedded thunderstorm activity is
currently all that is expected. Precipitable water values will range
around an inch and a half as the front slides through, but the
progressive nature of the system should limit precipitation totals
to under one inch, thus no flooding issues are anticipated at this
time.

Otherwise, as the font sweeps through Thursday temperatures will
take a little bit of a dive, but not enough to push them below
normal --normal being mid 60s this time of year--. After which the
Pacific airmass behind the front will keep conditions across the
region rather nice through at least the weekend; highs in the 70s,
low in the 50s. Early next work week, Monday into Tuesday, another
chance for rain may present itself with cooler temperatures, though
given the amount of variance in the model solutions confidence is
not high at this time for precipitation.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1133 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR conditions are expected throughout the majority of the forecast
period. Calm overnight winds and cool temperatures could bring about
a good scenario for fog development at KSTJ. This has been the case
during the previous two forecast periods when conditions were even less
favorable than this setup. For the KC area terminals, expecting a
possible MVFR fog development. However, KMCI is currently showing a
20 degree temperature/dew point depression. Will keep an eye on the
direction of the current behavior and will amend the TAFs if
necessary. Otherwise, winds will pick up slightly Tuesday morning as
they begin their transition to southeasterly.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Leighton/Welsh






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