Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
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151 FXUS63 KEAX 021123 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 623 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A few strong storms possible early this morning and again this afternoon with gusty winds to 50 mph the main threat. - Additional rainfall of 1-2" with locally higher amounts will pose a risk for localized flash flooding as well as river flooding. - Additional rounds of showers and storms this weekend. - Potential for severe storms on Monday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 245 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024 Early this morning scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed over the area due to isentropic ascent on the 300-305K surfaces. This is occurring out ahead of a broken line of severe thunderstorms moving across central Kansas that developed overnight ahead of a cold front. These storms are expected to weaken below severe limits as they reach the area before sunrise this morning however, thunderstorms with gusty winds are still expected through the morning hours. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to remain across the area this late this morning into the early afternoon as a LLJ continues to nose in the area through that timeframe. As we move into the afternoon the cold front will push through the area. This will provide another round of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon however, severe weather potential will be limited due to the inability for the atmosphere to recover from morning storms. What may be of more concern is the flooding potential as PWATs will remain in the 1.50"-1.75" over the course of today. Additional precipitation amounts of 1 to 2 inches with locally higher amounts may lead to localized flash flooding and river flooding. Cloud cover and precipitation will keep highs in the 70s today. Storms are expected to exit the area tonight as surface high pressure build into the area. Surface high pressure will remain in control over the area Friday providing dry and pleasant condition with seasonable highs in the low to mid 70s. Friday night, a upper level trough will move from the western High Plains into the Upper Midwest. This will force a cold front through the area provide ascent for another round of showers and thunderstorms late Friday night into Saturday morning. Another surface ridge of high pressure looks to build into the area Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. Highs behind the front Saturday are expected to reach the upper 60s to mid 70s. High pressure will remain in control most of Sunday however, a upper level shortwave trough will move from the southwestern CONUS into the Ozark by Sunday evening. Dry conditions over the area should keep the focus of storms associated with this system south of the area however, the extreme southern CWA may receive a few showers and storms. Highs Sunday will again remain seasonable in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Sunday night into Monday a strong upper level trough will move from the Four Corners region into the central Plains taking a negative tilt as it does so. Strong deep-layer shear and moisture will make the potential for severe weather possible although this time the better chance for severe weather would be west of the forecast area. However, this system will need to be monitored. With strong WAA out ahead of this system, highs on Monday will reach the upper 70s to lower 80s. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to persist through Monday night into Tuesday morning. Through the middle part of next week the region will be under zonal flow aloft. Subtle shortwave in zonal flow aloft may bring the chance for occasional scattered showers to the area. Highs will be in the mid 70s to lower 80s. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 623 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024 Widespread showers and storms are moving into and developing over eastern KS and western MO this morning. These showers and storms will linger through the morning hours before diminishing in coverage after noon. Conditions will be variable during precipitation with reductions in visibility to MVFR likely and drops in ceilings to low MVFR or even IFR. Low MVFR ceilings will linger through the afternoon hours before becoming VFR late this evening through the remainder of the forecast. Winds will be mainly from the south to southwest through mid morning and then begin to veer to the west and northwest through the afternoon. Winds become northerly this evening and overnight. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...73 AVIATION...CDB