Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 160854
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
354 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 348 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

Looking at the synoptic scale...a progressive pattern is noted
dominated the mid-latitudes of North America, with a shortwave
trough of note moving east into the Northern Plains early this
morning. Resulting lee-side surface trough has begun to develop
across the Dakotas and Nebraska early this morning. Looking a bit
above the surface, a stout low level jet is noted across the Central
Plains in response to the trough, with the surface pressure gradient
tightening significantly.

Today...Main focus will be on the combination of wind and dry air
which will likely result in a couple of different related hazards
across the region. The pressure gradient will continue to increase
across the region ahead of a cold front that will swing into the
region tonight as the northern stream trough moves east across the
Northern Plains. Add to this clear to mostly clear skies and the
potential for deep layer mixing --though 800mb at least-- and there
is a reasonable amount of confidence that wind advisory criteria will
be met in many areas today as momentum mixes down. Best location look to
be far northwest Missouri and northeast Kansas, but wind speeds
farther east will be fairly near criteria. So, will hedge a little
for today and go with a Wind Advisory for the entire region from 15Z
through 00Z today.

However, wind isn`t our only problem. Dry air will also be present
which will significantly heighten fire weather concerns across the
region. For more information, please see the FIRE WEATHER section of
this discussion below.

Thursday into Friday...A broader trough axis will follow the leading
northern stream shortwave through the Plains States. This trough
will likely help wash the cold front out that the leading wave
brought into Missouri. This is the same feature that was advertised
several days ago by some models to be bringing a significant snow
storm to the region. Fortunately models have converged on warmer and
farther south solutions with the latest runs, and have back off on
the overall chance of precipitation for Thursday and Friday.
However, that being said, will be keeping some chance POPs going,
mostly across the southeast half of the forecast area as some
moisture is advertised to advect up and along the elevated
baroclinic zone that will still be in place aloft. Given general
lack of moisture QPF values will be low. Otherwise, temperatures
will be cool Thursday thanks to the frontal passage and rain
potential, though readings will quickly begin rebounding Friday.

Saturday through Sunday...Temperatures will continue to rebound as a
shortwave ridge moves east across the Plains ahead of the next set
of phased troughs that will bring rain this weekend. Precipitation
chances will ramp up late Saturday afternoon through Saturday night
as strong warm air advection develops ahead of the next weak cold
front that will move through the region. The chance for storms this
weekend looks much better than our Thursday-Friday chances, but will
still depend on available moisture, which still might be scares if
The Gulf doesn`t open up some between now and then.

Otherwise...have added a couple of degrees to forecast highs for
next work week as the advertised shortwave ridge following behind
the weekend trough should lift highs well above normal.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 348 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

Strong and gusty southwest winds will dominate the region today
along with dry conditions. A cold front developing across the
western Plains this morning will result in strong and gusty winds
across eastern Kansas and Missouri today, with speeds well in excess
of critical fire weather conditions --south wind with speeds ranging
25 to 35 MPH with gusts to 45 MPH--. The front will settle south
into Missouri later tonight. Question then is how will humidity
values respond, and given the lack of available moister noted across
the region, left thinking that humidity values will rapidly mix out
late this morning with values dropping below 25% in many areas this
afternoon. The combination of high winds and low humidity values will
result in critical fire conditions, so will issue a Red Flag warning
for the entire forecast area for today.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1110 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

Cirrus continues to spill across the terminals at midnight. However
the big aviation story will deal with marginal LLWS through daybreak
followed by very gusty winds on Wednesday. Winds should begin to
increase across western Missouri and eastern Kansas through the
night, with KMCI (due to it`s elevation) likely seeing gusty
conditions. Have maintained LLWS at both MKC and STJ. Otherwise an
increasing pressure gradient and strong LLJ will allow near wind
advisory level winds (30 mph sustained/45mph gusts) to form by mid-
morning Wednesday and continue through mid-afternoon. By 4pm, winds
will begin to subside slightly.

A front will approach the area in the evening with a wind shift to
the northwest after 03Z. VFR conditions are expected with this front
and any cloud cover accompanying it.


&&


.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this
     evening FOR KSZ025-057-060-102>105.

     WIND ADVISORY from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     FOR KSZ025-057-060-102>105.

MO...RED FLAG WARNING from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this
     evening FOR MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
     043>046-053-054.

     WIND ADVISORY from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     FOR MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-
     054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
FIRE WEATHER...Cutter
AVIATION...Dux







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