Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 230449
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1149 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 306 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016

An upper-level ridge over the region will continue to provide for
ideal conditions the remainder of the day before a persistent
unsettled pattern arrives tomorrow. Temperatures will climb to the
low 80s this afternoon as surface flow transitions out of the south.
This southerly surface flow will advect moisture into the region
throughout the week as dewpoints currently in the upper 50s rise into
the lower 70s by the mid week. Aside from multiple rounds of
thunderstorms, this will make for unseasonably humid conditions
until the pattern subsides.

Upper-level cloud cover will cross into the area today ahead of
ongoing convection and moisture advection to the west. This activity
will remain outside of the area through the remainder of today and
overnight hours. The low-level jet over central Kansas will slowly
push eastward early Monday morning and the area within this flow will
be the focus for the first of many rounds of thunderstorms beginning
Monday. Precipitation should be slow to reach its way to the surface
as dry air aloft will need to be overcome early on. By the late
morning to early afternoon convection/showers that developed over
central Kansas will move into the CWA from west to east. This
activity will be maintained coincident with the low- level jet, along
a SW to NE axis mostly west of I-35 before expanding eastward into
the afternoon and evening hours. Though modest instability will be in
place through this period along with the enhanced low-level jet,
upper-level winds will not support significant deep layer shear.
Thus, not counting on anything severe to develop for Monday. Small
hail and isolated strong wind gusts are possible, however,
particularly during peak heating in the afternoon.

Convection will then continue overnight as the nocturnal low-level
jet ramps up heading into Tuesday. The upper-level ridge axis will
then shift to the southeast, which will push the low-level jet
southeastward overnight before it weakens Tuesday morning. All the
above ingredients will remain in place throughout the week, and any
shortwave impulses could trigger convection at any time. The
forecast for each subsequent day will largely depend on the previous
day`s activity and whether or not the atmosphere is able to recover
for new convection to develop. In general, while modest to moderate
instability is possible early in the week, deep layer shear will not
be supportive of widespread severe weather until the mid to late
week. By that time, the upper-level wave responsible for the activity
throughout the week will work its way near the Central Plains. This
will provide ample ascent coincident with deep layer shear and could
provide the best chance for widespread severe weather Thursday night
and into Friday. Precipitation chances will continue into the weekend
as the upper-level trough slowly pushes through the region. River
levels will need to be monitored through the latter half of the week,
as precipitation totals approach 2 to 4 inches over the course of the
week, particularly for areas north of the Missouri River.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1148 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016

Showers and thunderstorms will likely move into the area tomorrow
morning and potentially persist through the afternoon. Timing is
still uncertain but feel late morning to early afternoon is the most
likely time and have added a -TSRA tempo group accordingly. While
storms may persist later in the afternoon, at this time, it looks
like they will dissipate and we`ll be left with MVFR ceilings.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...Welsh
Aviation...CDB


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