Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 220810
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
310 AM CDT Mon May 22 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 310 AM CDT MON MAY 22 2017

Isentropic ascent in the 300K to 310K layer, ahead of an upper level
trough sliding south through Plains, will lead to scattered showers
and a few thunderstorms today. Regional radar imagery early this
morning is showing precipitation across north central KS/south
central NE and moving east. Forecast soundings from across the area
show a substantial dry layer from about 700MB and below. It may take
a little longer for precipitation to develop but it looks like in
the 12Z to 15Z window across northwestern MO and spreading east with
time. Weak instability and weak shear suggest a very limited risk
for any severe weather. But a freezing level of around 8000 ft
during the afternoon may enable small hail in the strongest cells.

For Tuesday, the upper trough will be situated overhead. Given the
cold air aloft, with a freezing level down to as low as 6000 ft, the
200 to 300 J/kg of MUCAPE will likely be enough to get scattered
showers and a few thunderstorms again. The strongest cells may be
able to produce small hail given the low freezing levels. But
again, the threat of any severe weather is very low. The upper low
will continue to influence the area on Wednesday, having only
shifted slightly to the east. So a similar scenario to Tuesday,
but mainly confined to the eastern half of the forecast area, is
expected.

Once this system moves away to the east, shortwave ridging will move
into the area, resulting in a return to normal temperatures for
Thursday and slightly above normal temperatures for the rest of the
forecast. A weak shortwave trough should move across the area
Friday, bringing another chance for showers and storms. Then for the
rest of the weekend, we should be in broad southwesterly flow, which
may bring multiple chances for precipitation. The GFS is more
prolific with the precipitation chances through Sunday, whereas the
ECMWF and the Canadian show drying conditions into Sunday. So there
better chance for Sunday turning out to be dry than rainy at this
point.


&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1128 PM CDT SUN MAY 21 2017

Calm winds overnight will become southwesterly with time as broad
surface high pressure continues to exit the region to the
southeast. Low level moisture will wrap around this feature and
enter the area early Monday morning. A shortwave will approach
from the west atop the deepening moisture axis, resulting in
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms by the late
morning and early afternoon. This activity looks to taper off
after sunset, though additional precip chances may return early
Tuesday morning.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...CDB
Aviation...Welsh



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