Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 230915
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
315 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 315 AM CST THU NOV 23 2017

Happy Thanksgiving! It is going to be a fantastic day for holiday
travel and festivities. A surface ridge of high pressure will
move over the region today providing sunny skies as height rises
build over the area. This will allow highs to rise into the mid
50s to lower 60s. Tonight surface high pressure shifts east and
strong WAA gets underway. This will continue through the day
Friday with breezy southwesterly winds helping temperatures rise
into the mid 60s to near 70. Tomorrow a upper level trough will
dig from the Canadian Plains into the Great Lakes region which
will force a cold front through the forecast area tomorrow
evening/night. However, with no cold air behind the front, highs
on Saturday, albeit cooler, will still be above normal in the mid
50s to near 60. Sunday, WAA will again get underway late in the
day as a high pressure ridge shifts eastward. This will allow
highs to warm into the mid 50s to lower 60s. Strong warm air
advection will continue into Monday as weak upper level ridge
builds into the area in response to a upper level trough digging
into the central Rockies. Highs will rise into the mid to upper
60s.

Model solutions begin to diverge as we move into the middle of next
week. On Monday night, the more progressive GFS brings the
aforementioned upper trough into the northern and central Plains and
forces a cold front through the CWA. With little moisture to work
with the GFS does not produce any precipitation with its passage.
The EC solution on the other hand is deeper with the trough as it
moves through the Rockies Monday night into Tuesday and develops a
split upper level pattern. The northern portion of the trough
remains progressive and quickly moves across the northern Plains
Tuesday pushing a weak cold front into the area. A southern portion
of the trough continues to dig into the Four Corners region on
Tuesday and moves out into the central and southern Plains Tuesday
night into Wednesday bring precipitation to the area on Wednesday.
The tendency is to lead more towards the more consistent GFS at the
moment however, this will have to be monitored as it is the only
shot at precipitation this forecast period.


&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 952 PM CST WED NOV 22 2017

VFR conditions and light southwest to west southwest winds are
expected to continue through the forecast period.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...73
Aviation...Laflin



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