Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 121124
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
624 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 507 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

Moisture transport across northern and central Missouri has proven
sufficient this morning to generate some scattered showers in areas
north and east of Kansas City. This activity is not expected to
persist into the morning much past sunrise, but may bring a quick
shower with a few hundredths of an inch of rain. Still expecting
morning activity to dissipate in time to allow plenty of time for
sunny skies to help make it a hot and humid day across the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 351 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

Overnight convection remains mostly located in areas from northeast
Nebraska arching through central Iowa into Illinois, which coincides
with edge of the nocturnal jet where warm air and moisture transport
is piling up early this morning. Closer to home, starting to get
some scattered radar returns across central Missouri likely owing to
weak moisture transport noted from the SPCs meso-analysis page.

Early morning showers in central Missouri don`t look like they will
last long. HRRR and other meso-models advertising this modest
activity all have it dissipating as quickly as it appeared as the
primary focus for moisture transport will remain to our north along
the southern edge of the prevailing westerlies across Nebraska and
Iowa today. Convection to our north will likely reinforce a weak
cold front settling south into Kansas and Missouri late tonight,
which will eventually bring the focus for some rain farther south
--likely after midnight--. However, before that occurs we will have
to get through a hot and muggy day. H8 temperatures today in the 20C
to 22C range, along with plenty of insolation thanks to clearing
skies, should allow temperates to reach into the 90s across the
entire forecast region today.

For tonight...have bumped POPs after midnight into the likely range
as models are consistent in settling the activity across Nebraska
and Iowa into at least northern Missouri as the front settles south.
Rainfall totals across far northern Missouri could be a bit high
owing to precipitable water values will be over 1.5 inches, though
the storms should be progressive enough with the fronts movement to
limit flooding issues. Otherwise, severe potential can not be ruled
out, but shear looks highly confined to the front and late night
instability is not looking overly favorable. That said, small hail,
locally gusty winds and torrential rain would be the hazards to
highlight with any of our late Saturday Night/early Sunday Morning
activity.

Storm chances will linger into Sunday, but the next best chance for
storms looks to hold off till Monday as a shortwave trough rotates
through the northern Plains into the Great Lakes. This will push a
more substantial cold front into Missouri providing focus for more
storms.

Otherwise, still looking at the potential for record low maximum
temperatures for Tuesday and record low temperatures both Tuesday
and Wednesday as cool Canadian air settles south into the Plains
States.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 624 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

Early morning showers will remain north and east of the terminals this
morning, thus VFR conditions are expected through the rest of the
daylight and much of the overnight hours. A front settling south
tonight will bring thunderstorms with it. Confidence in the coverage
of the storms is still a bit iffy, and the timing is out towards the
end of this TAF cycle, but have included VCTS at the terminals, and
a TEMPO group at KSTJ, to highlight when storms may impact aviation.
Otherwise, expect breezy southerly winds to prevail during the
daylight hours.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Cutter
DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Cutter






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