Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 161747
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1147 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 400 AM CST MON JAN 16 2017

While the focus of this forecast remains on the ejecting circulation
moving northeast across the southern Plains early this morning, the
impacts will be rather minimal compared to the past weekend as
surface temperatures will finally be ranging above freezing.

A large rain shield is sweeping north this morning as the
circulation that brought the weekend icing ejects northeast across
the Plains. Warm air advection with and just ahead of the rain has
resulted in a non-diurnal temperature trend across eastern Kansas
and Missouri overnight. This has resulted in temperatures rising
above freezing in all but extreme north central to northeast
Missouri counties early this morning. Current timing of the
retreating surface freezing line has it moving north of Missouri
around sunrise, thus the threat of icing will finally end. Will
allow the remaining portion of the Ice Storm Warning to expire at 6
AM as a result. However, there might still be a slight chance for
some icing to persist into the post sunrise hours of today thanks to
surfaces that are still below freezing; though even those
surfaces will warm up by mid-morning.

Storms for today wont amount to much more than a good soaking rain.
With precipitable water values around an inch today, expect decent
rainfall totals of a quarter to a half inch with scattered locally
higher amounts. Additionally, might hear some thunder with the rain
today as there is a little bit of instability analyzed in the warm
sector of the ejecting circulation. Otherwise for today, expect
temperatures to range from the 30s in the far northwest corner of
Missouri into the upper 50s across central Missouri thanks to the
warm air advecting in.

Rest of the work week...temperatures will be on the up swing, expect
for Tuesday, as a little cool air returns across Kansas and Missouri
behind the exiting circulation. As for precipitation, looks like the
prevailing storm track will stay to our south through the work week.
The pattern may adjust enough to allow the storm track to move back
north late next weekend.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1147 AM CST MON JAN 16 2017

Challenging TAF this pd as cigs/vis/pcpn will all be aviation
concerns. Currently a warm front resides just south of the
terminals with moisture pooling just north of the boundary leading
to IFR cigs and fog reducing vsbys to 1-4SM. A surface low is out
acrs south central KS and is expected to move northeastward into
the VC of the terminals late this afternoon and evening. The warm
may lift far enough north to allow a brief pd of MVFR even low VFR
for a brief pd this afternoon (especially at IXD). However, the
current thinking is that cigs will stay IFR. As the surface low
move thru the VC of the terminals lgt rain will be possible btn
22Z-02Z. AS this low continues to move northeast of the terminals
it will drag a cold front thru the TAF site allowing wind to shift
the W to WNW btn 5-10kts and bring IFR cigs back into the TAF site
if there is a brief pd of MVFR. Tonight IFR cigs and fog will
again be an issue. Fog may become dense reducing vsbys to as low
as a quarter of a mile but have opted for 1SM at the time due to
widespread model variability in vsbys. Drizzle may also be an
issue overnight into the morning hours prompting a VCSH for that
pd at this time.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Cutter
Aviation...73



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