Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 290008
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
708 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 332 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016

Thunderstorms again developing this afternoon across the region, with
the highest coverage over northwest MO where a subtle boundary has
been lifting north and interacting with a weak wave over central NE.
This area should be the focus for most thunderstorm activity through
the evening, although isolated to scattered storms remain a
possibility for the entire area where CAPE values are as high as 3000
to 4000 J/kg. Could see some small hail and winds to 50 mph with the
strongest storms, particularly across far northwest MO over the next
2-3 hours.

Most thunderstorm activity should subside as the sun goes down this
evening, and then redevelop in a similar pattern once again on
Monday. While scattered convection remains a possibility for much of
the area, the most likely location again appears to be from northeast
KS into northwest MO which will be in closer proximity to another
weak upper level impulse tracking from central KS into eastern NE.
A moderately to strongly unstable airmass will again be supportive of
gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall in the stronger storms.

By Tuesday and Wednesday the upper ridge overhead will weaken a bit,
allowing the stream of weak impulses to the west to track a bit
further south and east. This will shift the focus for more widespread
shower and thunderstorm activity into much of the forecast area
through this time, particularly Tuesday night into Wednesday when a
cold front will settle in from the north. Moisture will increase
ahead of this feature with precipitable water values approaching 2
inches by Tuesday afternoon, so will need to watch for some locally
heavy rain in some of these storms. Very weak low-level flow should
act against much of a training storm threat like we saw last week.

Front will push south of the area by Thursday while upper level
ridging builds in from the west. This will bring dry conditions to
the area for the end of the work week. This ridge will break down
over the weekend, bringing storm chances back into the area Saturday
night into Sunday.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 703 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016

Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to dissipate
by around 02z. Until then torrential rains, gusty winds to 30 mph and
brief MVFR visibilities can be expected under the stronger cores. In
addition there are a multitude of outflow boundaries generated from
the ongoing convection where surface wind directions will vary
markedly. From late Sunday evening through early Monday afternoon
expect generally dry and VFR conditions. Widely scattered convection
is expected to form once again during the mid and late afternoon
hours.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...Hawblitzel
Aviation...MJ



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