300
FXUS63 KFGF 020326
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1026 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Periodic bouts of rain over the next week, with the next one
  providing the entire region rainfall on Thursday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 951 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Rain has so far been reported in Bismarck, but the echoes over
our area have to fight through dry air to get to the surface.
Virga will likely be possible with these echoes at first and
then transition into drizzle and rain. That transition should
happen sometime before tomorrow morning. Forecast remains on
track otherwise.

UPDATE
Issued at 651 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Showers are pushing to the east from central ND. Rain will
begin from west to east into tomorrow as the shortwave
progresses. Forecast remains on track.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

...Synopsis...

Water vapor imagery indicates a deep trough across the western
CONUS slowly propagating to the east, along with a developing
upper low across the northern Rockies. Ensemble guidance in good
agreement depicting the upper low to slowly propagate east
across southern Canada, with stronger pieces of energy rotating
around this main feature into Friday. During this time, other
upper level waves ejecting from the western CONUS trough will
remain south of our region. Ridging into the weekend and related
dry weather will be replaced by another slow moving system that
will bring rain chances next week.

...Periodic bouts of rain...

Impacts from these periodic bouts of rain will be minimal with
the potential for excessive rainfall very low. Main impacts will
be outdoor activities such as baseball games, picnics,
agriculture planting, etc.

For tonight into Thursday, an upper level wave rounding the
base of the main upper low will bring forcing to much of the
region with widespread rainfall. The track of this feature will
determine where the strongest forcing and highest rainfall
totals take place, which most ensemble guidance indicates will
be NE ND into far NW MN with less amounts to the east/southeast.
For NE ND into far NW MN, the 25th/75th percentile range of
forecasted precipitation is 0.75-1.00 inches. For west central
Minnesota, the 25th/75th percentile range of forecasted
precipitation is 0.25 to 0.40 inches.

For Thursday late afternoon/evening, a narrow band of
instability will advect into central ND, with convection
possible along any low level boundaries that may exist. Unsure
how far east convection may make it, but synoptic pattern would
support very small hail or maybe even a funnel or two.

For Friday, aside from isolated cold pool showers not much for
forcing. There will be a banded precip event across central MN,
with latest ensemble guidance suggesting this will remain to
the southeast of this forecast area.

Lots of uncertainty next week with details, but a very high
chance for at least some rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1026 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

VFR conditions right now, will deteriorate into MVFR or IFR
conditions into Thursday. Winds will be variable at first into
Thursday morning, then stabilize out of the SE and increase to
10 - 15 knots sustained in the afternoon. Clouds and RA will
lower visibility during the day, as low as 3 SM in some TAF
sites. Visibilities will slowly improve into Friday morning from
west to east.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AH
DISCUSSION...TG
AVIATION...AH