Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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831 FXUS65 KFGZ 062115 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 215 PM MST Mon May 6 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Temperatures will remain cool with dry conditions and breezy afternoons through the rest of the week. Ridging returns over the weekend with warmer temperatures expected. && .DISCUSSION...The low pressure system that brought last night`s weather continues to push away from Arizona this afternoon as it makes its way into the Northern Plains states. In it`s wake, a cool and breezy day is underway across northern Arizona. While yesterday`s low continues to wobble around the northern plains states over the next few days, a longwave trough settles in across much of the west through the end of this week and early part of the weekend. The will keep temperatures near to below normal most days. Another wave feature and associated cold front will rotate through the long wave trough Tuesday which will tighten pressure gradients across Arizona. Wind speeds will increase enough to warrant a wind advisory and some low elevation red flag warnings for northeastern Arizona where the strongest gusts of 40 to 50 mph are expected. Wind directions will be more westerly on Tuesday as opposed to the predominate southwesterly we usually see this time of year. A few pockets of blowing dust will also be possible in the Little Colorado River and Chinle Valleys. As the upper level low sags southward and into Arizona from Wednesday through Saturday, we can expect much less wind. A few showers cannot be ruled out and there`s a 10-20% chance from Friday through Sunday mainly across Apache County and 4 Corners areas. The bulk of the forecast area looks to remain dry, but there is some indication among ensemble member solutions for a slightly deeper low developing which could increases these chances - something to keep an eye on. High pressure looks to dominate the weather pattern by Sunday with a warming trend expected to begin. && .AVIATION...Monday 06/18Z through Tuesday 07/18Z...VFR conditions are expected throughout today, with west-northwest winds gusting 20-30 kts. Stronger winds will be possible along and NE of a KGCN- KFLG-KSOW line. Calmer winds look to return after 06Z. Southwest 10-20kts winds will develop after 16Z. OUTLOOK...Tuesday 07/18Z through Thursday 09/18Z...VFR conditions should persist through the outlook period. Strong W-SW winds expected Tuesday afternoon, gusting 30-40 kts. Lighter W-NW winds forecast for Wednesday afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER...Today through Wednesday...Slight warming today and Tuesday. Minimum RH in the single digits to low 20s each day. West winds 15-25 mph gusting 30 mph today and with gusts 30-40 mph Tuesday. Critical fire weather conditions are expected Tuesday afternoon across the lower elevations in northeastern Arizona. Thursday through Saturday...Temperatures will warm into the weekend. Minimum RH values will remain in the single digits-20s range each afternoon, with typical spring-like breezes. Just a slight chance of showers moves into Apache County on Saturday. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory from noon MST /1 PM MDT/ to 7 PM MST /8 PM MDT/ Tuesday for AZZ004-005-009>015-039-040. Red Flag Warning from noon MST /1 PM MDT/ to 7 PM MST /8 PM MDT/ Tuesday for AZZ109-110-112>114-140. && $$ PUBLIC...MCT AVIATION...MAS FIRE WEATHER...MAS For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff