159
FXUS64 KFWD 301808 AAC
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
108 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

...New Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 528 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024/
Update:

No major changes were made to the forecast through Wednesday
morning with everything remaining on track except for some minor
adjustments to PoPs and dew points. A warm day is expected across
North and Central Texas with clearing skies and southerly winds
around 10 to 15 mph. Dry line convection may reach our westernmost
counties where a few storms could be strong to severe for large
hail, though this will be highly conditional and coverage will
remain limited as we move into the evening hours.

Reeves

Previous Discussion:
/Through Wednesday Morning/

A quiet but humid night is underway for North and Central Texas
as dew points linger in the mid to upper 60s across the region. An
additional surge of moisture from the southeast will result in
increasing cloud cover through Tuesday morning as low-level clouds
fill in across the region. Along with this is the low end
potential for patchy warm-air advection fog, mainly across Central
Texas. This window for patchy fog will be relatively brief into
the morning hours as skies gradually clear and daytime mixing
resumes. Overnight lows will remain mild through the morning as
well, generally bottoming out in the low to mid 60s.

This surge of moisture through Tuesday will result in a
sharpening moisture gradient along the dry line that will be
located off to our west on Tuesday afternoon. As this occurs,
daytime heating coupled with clearing skies and southerly winds
will lead to afternoon highs rising into the mid to upper 80s
across the region, with a few locations in our westernmost
counties approaching the 90 degree mark. While the environment
will be conducive for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms
across our northwestern counties, the question regarding how far
east convection propagates remains. The lack of large-scale
forcing for ascent also lessens confidence in the spatial extent
of thunderstorm activity through Tuesday afternoon and evening.
The latest hi-res guidance continues the trend of convection
reaching our northwestern counties by around midnight Wednesday
before quickly dissipating. All of this being said, any
thunderstorms will be capable of becoming severe should they make
it this far east. The main threat would be large hail with lower
potential for a damaging wind threat, but this potential will
remain quite isolated with limited coverage.

Cloud cover will be increasing once again across North and
Central Texas overnight Tuesday into early Wednesday morning. As a
result, overnight lows on Wednesday will be warmer, ranging in
the mid to upper 60s and low 70s across much of the region.

Reeves

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 346 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024/
/Wednesday Onward/

We will be in the open warm sector of a deepening leeside low near
the OK/TX Panhandles Wednesday. A north moving cluster of showers
is expected to develop over the Texas Coastal Plains in the late
morning/early afternoon. Diurnal heating may (40-50% chance) erode
the cap, allowing for scattered storms to move into Central Texas
in the afternoon. Weak deep-layer shear should limit the ability
for the storms to organize, but moderate instability and steep
mid-level lapse rates support the potential for a few storms to
produce small to marginally severe hail. It`s worth noting that
the low-level shear has a favorable directional profile, but weak
magnitude. If the wind speeds come in stronger (i.e. the low to
our west deepens more than we expect), the severe threat would
consequently increase.

Meanwhile, a dry line will sharpen over West Texas and serve as a
trigger for convective initiation well to our west Wednesday
afternoon. A shortwave trough will also move over the Southern
Plains Wednesday evening and Thursday and support additional
storms well ahead of the dryline Wednesday night. The shortwave
will marginally increase the deep-layer shear and threat of severe
hail, but not much. Widespread showers and storms are expected
Wednesday night into Thursday morning with a gradual west to east
movement. Heavy rain will likely accompany this activity. Given
the already saturated soils, it will not take much more rain to
cause flooding.

A lull in convective activity is expected Thursday as the storms
move into East Texas before additional storms develop along a cold
front late in the day. These storms should move into our area late
Thursday into Friday morning. How well the atmosphere rebounds
ahead of the front will largely determine the severe threat with
this activity. The front will then waver through the weekend into
early next week. There are significant differences in the
deterministic guidance regarding the placement of the front. Some
have it lingering nearby while others drive it all the way into
the Northern Plains. Either way, daily storms chances are in the
forecast through the weekend...with higher chances Sunday when a
shortwave trough moves through.

Ensemble trends are indicating the development of a stronger mid-
level ridge over the Gulf Coast in the middle and late parts of
next week. This would result in a warming trend with highs in the
90s more likely than not--most locations have a 50-70% chance
from Tuesday onward--next week...and since the moisture will not
be significantly scoured, heat index values in the upper 90s are
possible 7-10 days from now. Welcome to May.

Bonnette

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18z TAFs/

Stubborn MVFR and patchy IFR cigs should gradually improve/scatter
out to VFR by 20z with southerly winds between 12-15 kts with a
few gusts > 20 kts by mid-late afternoon. Winds will diurnally
back around to the SE near 15 kts this evening. Though not
advertised attm due to low confidence and probability, a VCSH or
VCTS for isolated "conditional" SHRA/TSRA may be needed. Again,
this is very conditional on isolated storm development well W-NW
of the area near the dryline, then outflow and development off
this outflow with a weak mid level impulse moving E over the D10
airspace.

Otherwise, winds will back southerly 10-15 kts overnight with MVFR
cigs arriving into the DFW D10 airports just before 12z
Wednesday with some IFR possible by mid morning, but returning to
MVFR by 18z, at which time southerly winds will will average near
15 kts with gusts 20-25 kts.

05/Marty

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    70  83  69  81  67 /  20  20  60  80  50
Waco                68  82  69  80  68 /   0  30  60  70  50
Paris               65  83  67  76  66 /   5  30  50  90  60
Denton              68  82  68  80  64 /  20  20  60  80  50
McKinney            68  82  68  79  66 /  10  30  60  80  60
Dallas              70  83  69  81  68 /  10  20  60  80  50
Terrell             67  82  67  79  66 /   0  30  60  90  60
Corsicana           68  84  70  80  68 /   0  30  60  80  60
Temple              69  82  69  81  68 /   0  30  60  70  40
Mineral Wells       67  83  67  84  65 /  20  20  70  60  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$